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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

First problem is relying on the GEFS GFS products for anything past day4

At the time it was the model suite that was out, but the other guidance showed that too. At least the 12z euro looked better today.

 

It would just be nice to get multiple model runs showing something more favorable instead of a random set of guidance here or there doing it and then going back to ass. Let’s just stabilize something good for once.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Great, pond hockey on my driveway after the next cutter.

Maybe Marco Sturm can transition practices outside and teach the Bruins how to play defense and punish them by making them stand outside in Arctic air at a clip of 30 minutes for each penalty they commit during a game

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51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

In Jan 94 had a midnight high of 49 and still finished BN with  midnight low of 2 lol

I hate those days where you would’ve pulled a record low afternoon max, but it was 18° at midnight and dropping 5°/hr

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4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s blood red on all guidance. Be mad at the pattern not me. Like I said over a week ago. Garbage pattern. 

From broken man....

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t have the energy to do a nice illustration of this, but go on the website like tropical tidbits, pick the North America sector, and look at the 500 MB height anomalies on the GEFS. You’ll see a trough over the Bering Sea, a ridge sort of positively tilted from California up to the Western Canadian prairies, and a trough over the Midwest that looks like it should do something here.

Now go to hr 174. Notice that Bering sea trough sends a s/w into the nrn plains of the US while the east coast trough almost tries to sharpen to make things interesting. 
However, that nrn plains s/w acts as a kicker and does not allow it to sharpen to bring a low up the coast. 

But here is the fun part, that s/w digs enough the of course the ridge retros into AK just enough to sharpen that and bring a more messier system into the northeast. That’s been our luck. Go forward through day 8 and you’ll see.

Now the reason why I’m saying it’s a non-0 chance is because it wouldn’t take much to bring that storm up the coast and at least graze us with a high-end advisory snow… But it just goes back to what I’ve been saying there’s just too much crap interfering in this flow.

 

To quality content poster....

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re so doom and gloom.

To comedian...

All in the span of 4 short hours!

I like the new and improved @CoastalWx :lol:

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1 minute ago, Layman said:

From broken man....

To quality content poster....

To comedian...

All in the span of 4 short hours!

I like the new and improved @CoastalWx :lol:

He is broken as he spent his week on brokeback island in the Caribbean. Dude needs a trip to Jay Peak or Juneau somewhere to cheer his broken ass up.

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20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You’re so doom and gloom.

This week?  Yea its thaw week ya know the one we have just about every year in Jan. Cheer up your time is coming.  Patience grasshoppers is so apropos this year. Its only week 2 of  12 week season 

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

This week?  Yea its thaw week ya know the one we have just about every year in Jan. Cheer up your time is coming.  Patience grasshoppers is so apropos this year. Its only week 2 of  12 week season 

Tried to tell him this earlier... he was acting like it was 3/8. 

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm ready for climo to deliver. I finally got all shoveled out from all the good looks and each of the climo periods from the last several winters 

Standard response after the last 3 years can't blame you. Next time I read its because of CC I am going to puke. 

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Standard response after the last 3 years can't blame you. Next time I read its because of CC I am going to puke. 

As much as I am a believer in CC and its influences on weather and while there may be some influences, I agree that CC is not the ultimate driver behind our crummy luck. Eventually we will get into periods (and a several year stretch) where things work out and we get slammed. This will happen sooner versus later.

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

As much as I am a believer in CC and its influences on weather and while there may be some influences, I agree that CC is not the ultimate driver behind our crummy luck. Eventually we will get into periods (and a several year stretch) where things work out and we get slammed. This will happen sooner versus later.

It will start this season, the second half, and go wild to close out the decade. 

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I just kind of want the weekend to get here. This period is very low probability, but just enough of a probability to keep us a bit into it. We'll either put this to rest this weekend or see a theme where we are inching towards something. 

 

Yeah looks like a great weekend....  :axe::axe:

image.thumb.png.e499aa0da9c84d10e5cd98f6b3964f01.png

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It will start this season, the second half, and go wild to close out the decade. 

I was kind of hoping we could have gotten a solid 2-3 year stretch of ENSO neutral conditions but this developing La Nina and now signals for an emerging EL Nino are going to run that. But this constant seesaw of ENSO with multiple strong EL Nino events over the last decade is really causing some major atmospheric chaos 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

No I said 56 inches between next week and April 1 for me. Hopefully you get 100

Yea, you also said something to the effect of "am I crazy for thinking we could go on a Jan 2011 type of run". That is when I responded with the lack of blockbuster cool ENSO months of February.  I know that wasn't a forecast per se...breaking balls...

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