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January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread


Baroclinic Zone
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52 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So I guess we suppress, and dry and cold going forward after the thaw….congrats DC and Virginia again?  Or maybe more clippers?  Good to see the NYC folks in here telling us we won’t see much. 

At least this means post thaw, the snow guns will be firing at Sundown & Mt. Southington

 

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Fast atmosphere limits in both directions...

Basically, in order to get the pelicans up here you need the meridian flow type, just the same as you do in order to curve the surfaces and create storms...  You can't displace the the pig air mass any more north than you can dig S/W successfully south. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Fast atmosphere limits in both directions...

Basically, in order to get the pelicans up here you need the meridian flow type, just the same as you do in order to curve the surfaces and create storms...  You can't displace the the pig air mass any more north than you can dig S/W successfully south. 

That’s what we told Dendy last night and he didn’t buy 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s what we told Dendy last night and he didn’t buy 

I wasn't part of the conversation - I was at the Pat's game.   fuckin' cold game !

anyway, what was the gist?  

I think limiting the N-S extent of the curving flow over the weekend makes sense, ... just given to the progressive and "speeding up" correction tendencies that began circa 2005 really,  Frustration aside, it probably rears some corrective essence to some degree or another.

But, it also brings into question how deep that L/W axis really will be 3 or 4 days on into the middle of the next week. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

GFS at hr 234 would probably send many to the edge....season after season and hearing about the great period for coastal development coming up and we end up with the GFS, 9 days from now....ooph

1/14 would be a bonus if we got something good that early. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

1/14 would be a bonus if we got something good that early. 

That's the H.A. window though ...

But I get it.  People don't care about when the enhanced probability for precipitation event correlations happens, they want winter storms on the charts. 

I guess since the pattern change/correction event intro may be cold lacking that might present some challenges getting the wintry profile out of that period.   Might have to rely on the "maintenance" system(s) that come after.    Assuming the pattern persists long enough - cross that bridge ...

I gotta say though, just from the veneer this is the best operational GFS generalized pattern scaffolding I've seen depicted from that model's extended range since a number of seasons...

image.png.76a4c7539ea3e1441f9bf7c6636b2cf1.png

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wasn't part of the conversation - I was at the Pat's game.   fuckin' cold game !

anyway, what was the gist?  

I think limiting the N-S extent of the curving flow over the weekend makes sense, ... just given to the progressive and "speeding up" correction tendencies that began circa 2005 really,  Frustration aside, it probably rears some corrective essence to some degree or another.

But, it also brings into question how deep that L/W axis really will be 3 or 4 days on into the middle of the next week. 

 

I was saying with a strong screamer to transport 50’s /60’s up into New England combined with the WBN SST’s south of us that you’re not going to get warm sectored like that . Not without strong storm cutting and wind transport 

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17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I was saying with a strong screamer to transport 50’s /60’s up into New England combined with the WBN SST’s south of us that you’re not going to get warm sectored like that . Not without strong storm cutting and wind transport 

well, for starters ... I'm ( personally ) not seeing "strong screamer" amplitude anywhere around eastern N/A over the weekend. 

I see middling cyclones moving up into an antecedent only weakly resistant +PP, or even a neutral PP ... draped throughout New England and adjacent ON/QUE.   A modestly amplified cyclone system would probably be able to erode into that regime, particularly if cuts west of ALB.  But a middling system is also not transporting sickly sweet air with it, either.

 

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42 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

GFS at hr 234 would probably send many to the edge....season after season and hearing about the great period for coastal development coming up and we end up with the GFS, 9 days from now....ooph

Actually when you're looking at patterns that far out, it's not a bad look... OP run, you know the drill... right? What do the ensembles say?

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