January 2026 regional war/obs/disco thread

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...can also shift/change and get worse...

Or get better and cycle up and down like a roller coaster like it has been forever. Some of us keep bringing this up, but some of us had to live through the 80s. Same crap different decade

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

We've been here before,  but it's been several decades 

Yes. And that’s how it kind of goes…some aren’t old enough to understand this very simple concept. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

Or get better and cycle up and down like a roller coaster like it has been forever. Some of us keep bringing this up, but some of us had to live through the 80s. Same crap different decade

200%. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

Or get better and cycle up and down like a roller coaster like it has been forever. Some of us keep bringing this up, but some of us had to live through the 80s. Same crap different decade

What was the global warming situation in the 80's???

 

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes. And that’s how it kind of goes…some aren’t old enough to understand this very simple concept. 

I mean I'm counting my blessings. Thankfully it's just the weather, and we're not reliving the music, fashion and Architectural styles of the time

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I think you can’t just keep explaining multi year and moving on close to a decade as “bad luck”. There is definitely something more going on. Sure, it could Be partially bad luck, but the overall atmospheric picture is obviously one that has made certain snow analogs hostile for this area.

 

At some point, you can’t just bury your head in the sand and have to objectively analyze what’s happening.

At some point you need to understand, this is how it goes here.  You don’t live in Labrador, or British Columbia, or the inter mountain west.  This is how SNE works. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just like models lost the 1-3” for tomorrow night  and now brought it back . Same should apply with these two 

Maybe. I wouldn’t be tossing a system that is over a week out though. And especially not one that is 10 days out. They may not happen. 
 

If that ridge rolls over, we’ll actually get mild for a few days, and that could set off some melts in here but there’s a very strong signal for a reload of the ridging out west and up into AK beyond that both on EPS/GEFS and the weeklies, so I think we’re going to continue to have chances. Obviously we want to start hitting on a few…we’ve already done plenty of cold with little snow this year. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What was the global warming situation in the 80's???

 

Well we had just come off the ice age idea of the70’s…so that’s all you need to know. 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well we had just come off the ice age idea of the70’s…so that’s all you need to know. 

Global warming is worse now...

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Global warming is worse now...

Not really. But whatever. 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Not really. But whatever. 

It is not worse??? Lol

 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What was the global warming situation in the 80's???

 

I know we were told that the NAO was going to be predominately positive due to global warming….we went through a big +NAO period in the 1980s/1990s and lots of papers came out about it being attributed to global warming. 
 

Then we got a huge decadal period of -NAO between about 2000-2001 and 2018 which coincided with the snowiest 15 year stretch on record in many SNE stations. 
 

It’s taught me not to have knee-jerk reactions about 5 or even 10+ trends and trying to extrapolate based on those. They just aren’t very predictable. A lot of climate weenies love to undersell the stochastic aspect of many of these patterns. It doesn’t mean we’re not warming…we can measure that we are and the literature is pretty sound about it on the whole…but it means other pattern attributes and sensible wx isn’t necessarily as easily predictable or understood by climate modeling. 

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

It is not worse??? Lol

 

C’mon..enough now. What’s f’n worse? Really?  You just went through the snowiest period in SNE history(granted our records only back 150 years or so).  But what is worse? A 4 year bad period? Again, that always happens.  And lots of other places in this country have had record breaking winters, while we’ve missed out.  And they missed out when we were reaping the rewards.  
 

NNE off to the best start…in history possibly.  That doesn’t sound like any  warming is giving them a problem. And warmth last year, and now this year isn’t a problem.  
 

So let’s just get back to our January weather now. 
 

 

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not likely…last year wasn’t as bad(nothing great obviously) as the year before that. This year better already than last…

I’m mostly with you…but this logic didn’t work for some of the truly putrid years we’ve had lately. It was unlikely to get worse/likely to be better until it did/didn’t. If we’re in a decadal cycle, we’ll it hasn’t been a decade yet, not that these things fall so neatly.

We need a stretch before we can declare things are better. In the whole scheme of things though, I’d rather just focus on this season. 

[Lava Rock]

I'd take another 26" like Dec 30, 2016. Biggest storm evah. Pattern looks pretty dry for awhile. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

C’mon..enough now. What’s f’n worse? Really?  You just went through the snowiest period in SNE history(granted our records only back 150 years or so).  But what is worse? A 4 year bad period? Again, that always happens.  And lots of other places in this country have had record breaking winters, while we’ve missed out.  And they missed out when we were reaping the rewards.  
 

NNE off to the best start…in history possibly.  That doesn’t sound like any  warming is giving them a problem. And warmth last year, and now this year isn’t a problem.  
 

So let’s just get back to our January weather now. 
 

 

Do research and you will find that New England as a region has warmed..

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m mostly with you…but this logic didn’t work for some of the truly putrid years we’ve had lately. It was unlikely to get worse/likely to be better until it did/didn’t. If we’re in a decadal cycle, we’ll it hasn’t been a decade yet, not that these things fall so neatly.

We need a stretch before we can declare things are better. In the whole scheme of things though, I’d rather just focus on this season. 

Me too. Focus on the here and now. 

[Damage In Tolland]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe. I wouldn’t be tossing a system that is over a week out though. And especially not one that is 10 days out. They may not happen. 
 

If that ridge rolls over, we’ll actually get mild for a few days, and that could set off some melts in here but there’s a very strong signal for a reload of the ridging out west and up into AK beyond that both on EPS/GEFS and the weeklies, so I think we’re going to continue to have chances. Obviously we want to start hitting on a few…we’ve already done plenty of cold with little snow this year. 

Yeah there’s just too much tossing off and tossing of models. Especially op runs when folks don’t look at ensembles 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah there’s just too much tossing off and tossing of models. Especially op runs when folks don’t look at ensembles 

Ensembles did get worse for both threats too just to be clear…but they didn’t eliminate them. I’d like to see it a bit healthier at 12z. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I know we were told that the NAO was going to be predominately positive due to global warming….we went through a big +NAO period in the 1980s/1990s and lots of papers came out about it being attributed to global warming. 
 

Then we got a huge decadal period of -NAO between about 2000-2001 and 2018 which coincided with the snowiest 15 year stretch on record in many SNE stations. 
 

It’s taught me not to have knee-jerk reactions about 5 or even 10+ trends and trying to extrapolate based on those. They just aren’t very predictable. A lot of climate weenies love to undersell the stochastic aspect of many of these patterns. It doesn’t mean we’re not warming…we can measure that we are and the literature is pretty sound about it on the whole…but it means other pattern attributes and sensible wx isn’t necessarily as easily predictable or understood by climate modeling. 

I still don't think the the seasonal NAO values were as low in the aggregate as they were in past negative NAO decadal cycles.....seasons that actually average negative in the DM mean are pretty sparse and relegated to intervals surrounding the solar min at this point...that said, maybe this year pulls it off.

[UnitedWx]

30 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What was the global warming situation in the 80's???

 

Same as it is now, same as it ever was

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am so utterly fu)king sick of this decade.

Lol .. cmon dude.... Things could be so much worse. Stop over analyzing. I really think you need to take a break. Come back in a few weeks when you think the pattern might be better. Focus on something else! :-)

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lol .. cmon dude.... Things could be so much worse. Stop over analyzing 

No, actually IMBY, they couldn't.

[Typhoon Tip]

With regard to assessing the pattern trajectories, only ... changes took place among the ensemble systems overnight bearing different implications than those we'd been discussing over the last few days.

Short version:   Intstead of going form a -WPO hybrid/stuck resonant pattern breakdown, into an at least low amplitude +PNA ... the cinemas now are relaying the former more directly into a -EPO.      

Longer version:   The GEFs mean, in fact, went hugely amplified with it. I kind of kick myself here ... a little. Because the GEFs was hesitating all along.  The nightly EOF calcs for the PNA was always the least +D(PNA) of the three.  Then the overnight's went hard toward a reason why.  This is the two-day total change spanning 348 to 300 hours out

That does not represent a low amplitude +PNA.  That is a dominating -EPO hemisphere there. 

I call that a big and sweeping change, because the implications are not the same.   Yes, yes ...obviously, this is 300 hours blah blah blah... however, it matters if we are in the business of extended range/early risk assessing, which falls out of pattern recognition.   Low amplitude +PNA will tend to host a different spectrum of risks compared to those correlated to nearing cross polar flow amplified -EPOs.   

I'm sure by now people are ready to pounce at those difference ...go for it.   But, in the meantime, I strongly suspect the reason the 6-10th period is getting seeming blurred and less coherent as we approach, when in theory is should be getting better, may be tied to these sweeping changes taking place.   6-10th fit the PNA expectation for the last 3 or 4 days nicely.  Above?   not so much.  So there may still be a window ... didn't wanna get into specific event coverage but I will just say, that period is still in the inflection window between the -WPO break down, then this emergence above.  There could be an opportunity in there. 

Here's the EPS and the GEM, showing the same move toward a higher amplitude -EPO.  The EPS shows the move but's subtler, admittedly... I don't think it necessarily diminishes the suspicions though, it still moved. 

  

 

It just all smacks pretty hard like we're heading for a different paradigm than we may have thought, one with a different spectrum of risk correlations.  Colder in the means is one implication ...  the best correlation over any attempt at a specific event, that's for sure.  But I also want to remind... it was stated over the last couple days that this change is fluid/in itself, changeable.  We basically were higher confidence of moving away from the erstwhile -WPO/hybrid weirdness... Where it ultimately goes ..heh. 

[Cobalt]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well we had just come off the ice age idea of the70’s…so that’s all you need to know. 

Only 10% of the literature even suggested the idea of predicting global cooling (while 62% predicted warming), but sure. Remember what you want to remember

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, actually IMBY, they couldn't.

Well... If giving me the Shit symbol makes you feel better... Do it again. Get it out man. Things will not stay the same forever.  

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Same as it is now, same as it ever was

Incorrect...

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still don't think the the seasonal NAO values were as low in the aggregate as they were in past negative NAO decadal cycles.....seasons that actually average negative in the DM mean are pretty sparse and relegated to intervals surrounding the solar min at this point...that said, maybe this year pulls it off.

2009-2011 was the lowest 2-year NAO on record 

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Only 10% of the literature even suggested the idea of predicting global cooling (while 62% predicted warming), but sure. Remember what you want to remember

In the 70's and early 80's the book The Cooling was all the rage ...obviously the book got it wrong..

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Only 10% of the literature even suggested the idea of predicting global cooling (while 62% predicted warming), but sure. Remember what you want to remember

If you want to drink the cool Aide, go ahead. It’s a bunch of crap. And that’s that. It isn’t gonna make any difference in your life or mine..at all. It’s still gonna snow. It’s still gonna get cold. And it’s still gonna rain in the winter sometimes in SNE.   Moving on….