GaWx Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 This is very sad to read. Roger also ran annual AmericanWx hurricane season forecast contests at least going back to 2016, which is how I best knew him. He put a lot of thought into these as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios. May Roger rest in peace. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Wow I’m so sorry to hear about Roger. May he Rest in eternal Peace 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 4 hours ago, so_whats_happening said: Sorry to tag but felt it was needed for everyone to know in here. @Rjay @donsutherland1 @bkviking @MJO812 @RodneyS @Stormchaserchuck1 @Tom @wxallannj @Scotty Lightning @dmillz25 @hudsonvalley21 This is very sad news. He was a fantastic member. May he rest in peace. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 22 hours ago, wxdude64 said: Sadly posting this with a heavy, heavy heart- Obituary information for Roger James Smith Odd....someone accessed his account because his profile says last online 10 hours ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Odd....someone accessed his account because his profile says last online 10 hours ago.... Maybe someone in his family? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 minute ago, yoda said: Maybe someone in his family? That's what I'm thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's what I'm thinking... Probably to let us know maybe, but they saw we already knew? Just guessing 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 17 Share Posted March 17 Sad reading this, I don't post much on any forum learn more reading, however always enjoyed the contests felt like a way to contribute and he put tremendous effort into them to make them competitive and very informative at the end of each month, season and year. RIP Roger prayers to his family and friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 I just read through the thread and in the back of my mind I was hoping it wasn't true; I know he had some health issues recently, but thought he was on the mend. RIP Roger and thank you for keeping this game going for years. It's been fun and I know you spent a lot of time every month compiling stats, etc.; unfortunately my forecasting skills have sucked for the past year and half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 18 Share Posted March 18 Shit! Roger was a gem. Gave me a sad smile to read that one of his wx board handles (IE) was MT Cranium. Fair winds and following seas Roger, and maybe a hurricane when the mood suits you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 21 Share Posted March 21 I found this at https://www.google.com/search?q=mt+cranium+rip&sca_esv=f5ae96e688f1c6a3&sxsrf=ANbL-n4BUn165DsPAksiH--TojjaTqSA1g%3A1774136063265&source=hp&ei=_yq_afbwDbnm5NoPuv6CwAE&iflsig=AFdpzrgAAAAAab85D4SMSyWmc574fhzcu_GQqozcvLzq&oq=mt+cranimum&gs_lp=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&sclient=gws-wiz: Roger Smith, famously known as the weather forecaster "M. T. Cranium" on boards.ie and as Peter O'Donnell on Facebook, passed away unexpectedly in February 2026. He was a highly respected figure in the Irish online community, recognized for providing detailed daily, long-term, and accurate weather forecasts for over two decades. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted March 22 Share Posted March 22 The dude was an international superstar! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Thursday at 12:46 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:46 AM I have a question. Do we wish to close this game in Roger's memory? Or do we wish to continue to play in his honor? I am open to either, just throwing it out there. @Scotty Lightning@RodneyS@yoda@Tom@donsutherland1@Rjay@wxallannj@so_whats_happening@Stormchaserchuck1@bkviking@MJO812@hudsonvalley21@dmillz25@PositiveEPOEnjoyer and any other I may have missed. I'd be willing to try to close Feb, but we were SO far off on a few that his 'curve' would be in effect, and I have no idea how to calculate that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted Thursday at 12:52 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:52 AM 5 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: I have a question. Do we wish to close this game in Roger's memory? Or do we wish to continue to play in his honor? I am open to either, just throwing it out there. @Scotty Lightning@RodneyS@yoda@Tom@donsutherland1@Rjay@wxallannj@so_whats_happening@Stormchaserchuck1@bkviking@MJO812@hudsonvalley21@dmillz25@PositiveEPOEnjoyer and any other I may have missed. I'd be willing to try to close Feb, but we were SO far off on a few that his 'curve' would be in effect, and I have no idea how to calculate that. I'd want to continue to play in his memory. Like you, I don't know how he calculated his curve. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Thursday at 01:56 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:56 AM 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: I'd want to continue to play in his memory. Like you, I don't know how he calculated his curve. We can score it our own way. I have no idea how he scored things but if someone comes up with a good way, they should go for it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted Thursday at 02:00 AM Share Posted Thursday at 02:00 AM I would be down to keep giving it a try. As for scoring this may take time to figure out but we can at least post the results for each month as well as snowfall and Max temps. I think it would be great to keep it going in honor of Roger. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted Thursday at 03:13 AM Share Posted Thursday at 03:13 AM Just so we are all on the same boat as for locations with February anomalies: DCA: Washington Reagan (-3.8) NYC: Are we using JFK, LGA, or central park data? (-4.7, -4.6, -4.4 respectively) BOS: Logan Airport (-3.3) ORD: O'Hare or Midway? (+4.3, +3.9) ATL: Hartsfield (+3.1) IAH: Houston Bush (+6.1) DEN: Denver is a tricky one with the airport like 5 miles away from downtown but there is a Denver central park site (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=bou) (+9) PHX: Phoenix Airport (+7.8) SEA: Seattle-Tacoma or Boeing Field? (+0.4, +1.1) Any input/changes are appreciated! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Thursday at 11:41 AM Share Posted Thursday at 11:41 AM @so_whats_happening, I helped grade once back 6 years ago or longer maybe for a month, Central Park was used for NYC, the Denver airport was used, and Sea-Tac for Seattle, O'Hare for Chicago, Bush for Houston. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted Thursday at 01:42 PM Share Posted Thursday at 01:42 PM 1 hour ago, wxdude64 said: @so_whats_happening, I helped grade once back 6 years ago or longer maybe for a month, Central Park was used for NYC, the Denver airport was used, and Sea-Tac for Seattle, O'Hare for Chicago, Bush for Houston. Ill look up the Denver one because for some reason it didn't look to be listed from the link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted Thursday at 10:32 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:32 PM 21 hours ago, wxdude64 said: I have a question. Do we wish to close this game in Roger's memory? Or do we wish to continue to play in his honor? I am open to either, just throwing it out there. @Scotty Lightning@RodneyS@yoda@Tom@donsutherland1@Rjay@wxallannj@so_whats_happening@Stormchaserchuck1@bkviking@MJO812@hudsonvalley21@dmillz25@PositiveEPOEnjoyer and any other I may have missed. I'd be willing to try to close Feb, but we were SO far off on a few that his 'curve' would be in effect, and I have no idea how to calculate that. I would still like to continue to play the game; I would also like it to be renamed "The (year) Roger Smith Forecast Contest" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted Thursday at 10:41 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:41 PM I am not a techie, however if I can help in anyway I work from home so I almost always have time to do something, if someone wants to point me in a direction to look stuff up just tell me where. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted Thursday at 10:45 PM Share Posted Thursday at 10:45 PM We'll figure it out at some point over the next couple of months. Let's just continue predicting and honor Roger. Maybe Don can help too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted 23 hours ago Share Posted 23 hours ago April (just in case) DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Im down to continue playing in Rogers honor 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Lets do it! April Forecasts below and including scotty's just above. For anyone new wanting to enter, the forecast contest asks you to predict temperature anomalies at nine locations across the U.S., in F deg relative to 1991-2020 averages. The nine locations are DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA This is from Roger's intial post so I'll just include it for each month going forward. Forecasts in by lets say April 3rd 06z to get back into it. We will figure out scoring as time goes on, I'll play around with it this week. March anomalies will be updated shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.3 3.6 2.9 3.9 3.4 1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago On 3/25/2026 at 8:46 PM, wxdude64 said: I have a question. Do we wish to close this game in Roger's memory? Or do we wish to continue to play in his honor? I am open to either, just throwing it out there. @Scotty Lightning@RodneyS@yoda@Tom@donsutherland1@Rjay@wxallannj@so_whats_happening@Stormchaserchuck1@bkviking@MJO812@hudsonvalley21@dmillz25@PositiveEPOEnjoyer and any other I may have missed. I'd be willing to try to close Feb, but we were SO far off on a few that his 'curve' would be in effect, and I have no idea how to calculate that. OK, I scored Feb without a 'curve', if anyone wishes to attempt Roger's curve they can have a go at it. donsutherland1 84 78 100 262 8 8 14 30 292 12 12 36 60 352 wxdude64 92 74 90 256 0 20 0 20 276 0 0 66 66 342 dmillz25 84 72 84 240 0 38 0 38 278 0 14 48 62 340 RJay 76 88 66 230 0 0 38 38 268 0 4 64 68 336 wxallannj 84 68 86 238 4 14 0 18 256 0 0 78 78 334 Consensus 84 72 90 246 0 18 0 18 264 0 0 68 68 332 hudsonvalley21 76 70 90 236 0 28 0 28 264 0 0 62 62 326 bkviking 64 62 84 210 0 18 0 18 228 0 0 92 92 320 so_whats_happening 68 58 84 210 0 30 0 30 240 0 0 76 76 316 PositiveEPOEnjoyer 6 2 28 36 62 78 36 176 212 0 0 92 92 304 Tom 92 98 74 264 0 0 0 0 264 0 0 34 34 298 Roger Smith 66 68 36 170 0 0 0 0 170 0 0 68 68 238 Scotty Lightning 24 12 34 70 14 38 0 52 122 0 0 98 98 220 Normal 24 12 0 36 14 38 0 52 88 0 0 92 92 180 RodneyS 6 8 0 14 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 84 84 98 Not promising this is 100% correct, although I went thru it twice. If you think your score is off, just let me (us) know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago On 2/2/2026 at 2:28 PM, Roger Smith said: Table of forecasts for February 2026 FORECASTER _____________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH __ DEN _PHX _SEA PositiveEPO Enjoyer ______ +0.9 _+0.5 _+0.3 __+2.4 _+2.0 _+2.9 __+3.0 _+0.5 _+0.8 Scotty Lightning ___________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __+1.0 _ +1.5 _ +0.5 ____ Normal ________________0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 BKViking __________________-2.0 _ -2.5 _ -2.5 __ -2.2 _ -1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.3 _ +1.2 _ +0.8 so_whats_happening ______-2.2 _ -2.3 _ -2.5 __ -1.0 _ -0.4 _ +0.9 __ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +1.6 hudsonvalley21 ____________-2.6 _ -2.9 _ -2.8 __ -2.7 _ -0.5 _ +0.3 __ +2.6 _ +2.1 _ +2.3 wxallannj __________________-3.0 _ -2.8 _ -2.6 __ -0.5 _ -1.2 _ +0.4 __ +2.0 _ +2.5 _ +1.5 dmillz25 ___________________-3.0 _ -3.0 _ -2.5 __ -1.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.5 __ +3.0 _ +3.5 _ +3.0 ____ Consensus __________ -3.0 _ -3.0 _ -2.8 __ -1.9 _ -1.0 _ +0.7 __ +2.1 _ +2.4 _ +2.0 DonSutherland1 ___________-3.0 _ -3.3 _ -3.3 __ -0.3 _ -1.5 _ +1.8 __ +5.0 _ +3.4 _ +3.6 wxdude64 ________________ -3.4 _ -3.1 _ -2.8 __ -1.9 _ -0.9 _ -0.4 __ +1.7 _ +2.4 _ +2.1 Tom _______________________-4.2 _ -4.5 _ -4.6 __ -2.6 _ -2.8 _ -0.6 __ +3.4 _ +2.8 _ +3.7 RJay _______________________-5.0 _ -5.0 _ -5.0 __ -2.5 _ -2.2 _ +3.0 __ +3.3 _+3.0 _+2.2 Roger Smith _______________-5.5 _ -6.0 _ -6.5 __ -6.5 _ -6.0 _ -5.0 __ +2.0 _ +2.0 _ +2.0 RodneyS __________________-8.5 _ -9.0 _ -8.9 __ -3.7 _ -2.5 _ +0.7 __ +2.9 _ +2.4 _ +1.2 _____________________________________ Persistence (Jan 2026) ___ -4.2 _ -3.3 _ -1.9 __ -3.3 _ +0.4 _ +0.9 __ +2.7 _ +4.3 _ +0.6 ============================== will add color codes later, will have to consider whether or not warmest should be dual-format depending on next month entries. (having a one and done as warmest should be along with warmest regular forecaster for extreme forecast designations but if the new entrant makes more forecasts then they would have exclusive access for designation) (coldest forecasts are mostly among last two entries shown, except for western region where BKV or SL have them) All of our western forecasts are above normal. All but a few eastern and ORD-ATL are below. IAH is more variable. <<< table will be adjusted if further entries are received >>> On 3/25/2026 at 11:13 PM, so_whats_happening said: Just so we are all on the same boat as for locations with February anomalies: DCA: Washington Reagan (-3.8) NYC: Are we using JFK, LGA, or central park data? (-4.7, -4.6, -4.4 respectively) BOS: Logan Airport (-3.3) ORD: O'Hare or Midway? (+4.3, +3.9) ATL: Hartsfield (+3.1) IAH: Houston Bush (+6.1) DEN: Denver is a tricky one with the airport like 5 miles away from downtown but there is a Denver central park site (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=bou) (+9) PHX: Phoenix Airport (+7.8) SEA: Seattle-Tacoma or Boeing Field? (+0.4, +1.1) Any input/changes are appreciated! 4 minutes ago, wxdude64 said: OK, I scored Feb without a 'curve', if anyone wishes to attempt Roger's curve they can have a go at it. donsutherland1 84 78 100 262 8 8 14 30 292 12 12 36 60 352 wxdude64 92 74 90 256 0 20 0 20 276 0 0 66 66 342 dmillz25 84 72 84 240 0 38 0 38 278 0 14 48 62 340 RJay 76 88 66 230 0 0 38 38 268 0 4 64 68 336 wxallannj 84 68 86 238 4 14 0 18 256 0 0 78 78 334 Consensus 84 72 90 246 0 18 0 18 264 0 0 68 68 332 hudsonvalley21 76 70 90 236 0 28 0 28 264 0 0 62 62 326 bkviking 64 62 84 210 0 18 0 18 228 0 0 92 92 320 so_whats_happening 68 58 84 210 0 30 0 30 240 0 0 76 76 316 PositiveEPOEnjoyer 6 2 28 36 62 78 36 176 212 0 0 92 92 304 Tom 92 98 74 264 0 0 0 0 264 0 0 34 34 298 Roger Smith 66 68 36 170 0 0 0 0 170 0 0 68 68 238 Scotty Lightning 24 12 34 70 14 38 0 52 122 0 0 98 98 220 Normal 24 12 0 36 14 38 0 52 88 0 0 92 92 180 RodneyS 6 8 0 14 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 84 84 98 Not promising this is 100% correct, although I went thru it twice. If you think your score is off, just let me (us) know. Wonderful! Thank you ill take a look tonight while im at work then. Im tagging all this so that it is easy to see going forward I'll also gather the march items in a few days. I actually kind of like it without the curve but ill let everyone else chime in as it was a tough forecast last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said: Wonderful! Thank you ill take a look tonight while im at work then. Im tagging all this so that it is easy to see going forward I'll also gather the march items in a few days. I actually kind of like it without the curve but ill let everyone else chime in as it was a tough forecast last month. Yep, I sorta like the 'non-curve' myself (definitely easier to score!), but I'll go with whatever anyone else wishes to do and play. I'll pick for April later this evening. Thanks to all who want to help with the grading and the continuing wanting to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago DCA: +5.0 NYC: +5.0 BOS: +5.0 ORD: +4.0 ATL: +2.5 IAH: +4.9 DEN: +2.5 PHX: -1.0 SEA: 0.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now