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2026 forecast contest thread -- enter your March 2026 forecasts


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 This is very sad to read. :( Roger also ran annual AmericanWx hurricane season forecast contests at least going back to 2016, which is how I best knew him. He put a lot of thought into these as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios.
 May Roger rest in peace.

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Sad reading this, I don't post much on any forum learn more reading, however always enjoyed the contests felt like a way to contribute and he put tremendous effort into them to make them competitive and very informative at the end of each month, season and year.  RIP Roger prayers to his family and friends. 

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I just read through the thread and in the back of my mind I was hoping it wasn't true; I know he had some health issues recently, but thought he was on the mend.

 

RIP Roger and thank you for keeping this game going for years. It's been fun and I know you spent a lot of time every month compiling stats, etc.; unfortunately my forecasting skills have sucked for the past year and half. :D

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 I have a question. Do we wish to close this game in Roger's memory? Or do we wish to continue to play in his honor? I am open to either, just throwing it out there. @Scotty Lightning@RodneyS@yoda@Tom@donsutherland1@Rjay@wxallannj@so_whats_happening@Stormchaserchuck1@bkviking@MJO812@hudsonvalley21@dmillz25@PositiveEPOEnjoyer and any other I may have missed.

I'd be willing to try to close Feb, but we were SO far off on a few that his 'curve' would be in effect, and I have no idea how to calculate that. 

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5 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

 I have a question. Do we wish to close this game in Roger's memory? Or do we wish to continue to play in his honor? I am open to either, just throwing it out there. @Scotty Lightning@RodneyS@yoda@Tom@donsutherland1@Rjay@wxallannj@so_whats_happening@Stormchaserchuck1@bkviking@MJO812@hudsonvalley21@dmillz25@PositiveEPOEnjoyer and any other I may have missed.

I'd be willing to try to close Feb, but we were SO far off on a few that his 'curve' would be in effect, and I have no idea how to calculate that. 

I'd want to continue to play in his memory. Like you, I don't know how he calculated his curve.

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'd want to continue to play in his memory. Like you, I don't know how he calculated his curve.

We can score it our own way.  I have no idea how he scored things but if someone comes up with a good way, they should go for it.  

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Just so we are all on the same boat as for locations with February anomalies:

DCA: Washington Reagan (-3.8)

NYC: Are we using JFK, LGA, or central park data? (-4.7, -4.6, -4.4 respectively)

BOS: Logan Airport (-3.3)

ORD: O'Hare or Midway? (+4.3, +3.9)

ATL: Hartsfield (+3.1)

IAH: Houston Bush (+6.1)

DEN: Denver is a tricky one with the airport like 5 miles away from downtown but there is a Denver central park site (https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=bou) (+9)

PHX: Phoenix Airport (+7.8)

SEA: Seattle-Tacoma or Boeing Field? (+0.4, +1.1)

Any input/changes are appreciated!

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