January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[dmillz25]

23 minutes ago, TriPol said:

I still can't believe Central Park only got 10 inches out of that storm.

Imagine if we had a semblance of blocking with that storm 

[Volcanic Winter]

I was leaving work in Union the day it hit and it was one of my sketchiest Parkway rides in 15 years. Was a ghost town, which is rare even in snow events. Was in a 2010 F150 and probably averaged 25-30mph the whole way, I remember visibility at times was dreadful. 

We got about 18 inches down my ways, and some spots near me according to snow maps maxed around 20-21. Was pretty close to a proper regional HECS, just needed some tweaks. 

Feel similarly about 1/29/22, few shifts away from a HECS  - that thing was a monster. 

[dmillz25]

6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I was leaving work in Union the day it hit and it was one of my sketchiest Parkway rides in 15 years. Was a ghost town, which is rare even in snow events. Was in a 2010 F150 and probably averaged 25-30mph the whole way, I remember visibility at times was dreadful. 

We got about 18 inches down my ways, and some spots near me according to snow maps maxed around 20-21. Was pretty close to a proper regional HECS, just needed some tweaks. 

Feel similarly about 1/29/22, few shifts away from a HECS  - that thing was a monster. 

Shit was literally down to the 950s at our latitude lol

[MJO812]

Gefs continues to improve 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, dmillz25 said:

Shit was literally down to the 950s at our latitude lol

That was the most accurate 168 hr Euro control run of all time.

https://www.weather.gov/okx/Blizzard_Jan42018

 

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Gefs continues to improve 

improve how so ? Same as the Euro - little  snow

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

improve how so ? Same as the Euro - little  snow

The GFS upgrade back in 2019 caused it to incorrectly forecast KU snowstorms at times when there was no other model support.

This problem still hasn’t been addressed since it may just be an inherent model bias.

We are coming up on the 1st anniversary of its 964mb benchmark blizzard that never occurred last January 12th which the Euro forecast correctly showed was a GFS model error.

https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/

For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

43 / 40 0.70 inthe bucket last night.  Should see clearing and sunshine around noon or so.  Overall above normall till Wed.  Trough into the east / Ridge balloons and colder / below normal by the 16th..  Still have storm potential Jan 15 - Jan 19 or so or is it mainly dry.  Beyond there still looks to edge below normal overall.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (2020)
NYC: 69 (2020)
LGA: 66 (2020)
JFK: 59 (1975)

 

Lows:


EWR: -2 (1982)
NYC: 3 (1968)
LGA: 4 (1982)
JFK: 5 (1982)

 

Historical:

 

1898: An estimated F4 tornado struck the city of Fort Smith, Arkansas, just before midnight. The tornado, which touched down about 100 miles southwest of town, killed 55 people and injured 113 others along its track. 

 

1918 - A tremendous blizzard completely immobilized the Midwest, stopping mail service for two weeks. The vast storm then moved through the Great Lakes Region and the Ohio Valley. Winds reached 60 mph at Toledo OH, and the temperature plunged from 28 above to 15 below zero during passage of the cold front. (David Ludlum)

1918: A powerful area of low pressure brought snow and bitterly cold temperatures to Chattanooga, Little Rock, and Shreveport. Birmingham, Alabama, picked up an inch of snow. In far southeastern Alabama, an estimated F3 tornado virtually damaged every building in the town of Webb. The tornado leveled one rural school, killing one teacher and seven students. Please note, the date on the historical marker is an error. January 10th in 1918 was a Thursday.

1922: Severe coastal storm gave one to three inches of rain in Washington and 20 inches of snow in the mountains. (Bob Ryan's 2000 Almanac)

1942: Rhode Island's record low temperature of 23 degrees below zero was set at Kingston. This record was broken on 2/5/1996. Locations across the east that reported daily record low temperatures for the date included: Concord, NH: -24°, Allentown, PA: -11°, Hartford, CT: -10°, Worcester, MA: -8°, Williamsport, PA: -8°, Richmond, VA: -8°, Greensboro, NC: -5 °F, Charleston, WV: -4°, Asheville, NC: -2°, Newark, NJ: 2°, Wilmington, DE: 3°, Raleigh, NC: 6°, Greensville-Spartanburg, SC: 12°, Charleston, SC: 14°, Macon, GA: 15°, Baton Rouge, LA: 19°, Tallahassee, FL: 19°, Gainesville, FL: 24°-Tied and Fort Myers, FL: 37°-Tied. Out west, Palomar Mountain, CA set their January record high with 82°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1951: An unusually strong California tornado (F2) struck Los Gatos and Sunnyvale, causing $1.5 million in damage. San Jose, CA also was hit by an F2 tornado. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1963: An F2 tornado was reported in Scott County, Indiana, north of Louisville, Kentucky. It was on the ground for 5 miles north of Scottsburg and damaged or destroyed several homes and barns.

1969: Heavy snow fell across northern Oregon on the 11th and 12th. There was heavy damage to trees, which knocked out ninety percent of the power in the area. Blizzard conditions brought traffic to a standstill, particularly over Mt. Hood, where traffic was backed up for eighteen miles. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1970: This was the last day of record lows across parts of the East as the arctic high pressure moved off the southeast coast and the upper level over Eastern Canada and refused to move out. Locations that reported record lows included: Elkins, WV: -15°, Sterling (Dulles Airport), VA: 0°, Myakka River, FL: 24°, Mountain Lake, FL: 25°, Weekiwachee, FL: 25 °F - Tied, Vero Beach, FL: 28°, Winter Haven, FL: 28°, Bartow, FL: 28°-Tied, Tampa, FL: 30° - Tied, Fort Myers, FL: 33° and Key West, FL: 48°.

1972 - Downslope winds hit the eastern slopes of the Rockies in northern Colorado and southeastern Wyoming. Boulder CO reported wind gusts to 143 mph and twenty-five million dollars property damage. (David Ludlum)

1972: A deep and very strong upper level trough dug in west of the Mississippi River. Idaho hit hard by wind and snowfall that was said to be the worst in memory. 2,000 travelers were stuck on the road and had to spend the night in the National Reactor Test Facility near Idaho Falls. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1975: The maximum temperature for the date in Washington, DC is 75°F. (Ref. Washington Weather Records - KDCA)
"The Blizzard of the Century" continues-- An intense low pressure system moved nearly straight northward from south central Iowa to southeast Minnesota producing a severe blizzard in the tri-state area. This storm turned out to be one of the worst winter events of all time and is often referred to as "The Blizzard of the Century". Snow amounts of 8 to 15 inches were accompanied by wind gusts to 75 mph. Snow drifted to 20 feet paralyzing the entire area. Thousands of motorists were stranded. In northwest Iowa, 15 deaths were attributed to the storm. In addition, livestock losses were substantial. Estimates included 15,000 cattle; 15,000 hogs; 1,500 sheep; and 70,000 chickens totaling to about $20 million dollars in losses. The governor of Iowa requested that 40 northwest counties be declared as Federal Disaster areas. Behind the storm, Alamosa, CO set a record low with -28 °F. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1980: The temperature at the Great Falls, MT International Airport rose from -32F to 17F in just seven minutes as a Chinook wind warmed the arctic air. This temperature rise stands as the most rapid temperature change ever registered in the United States.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1982: Snow squalls buried Buffalo, NY under 25.3 inches of snow to set a new 24-hour record up until that time. 800 fans were stranded at the Buffalo Municipal Auditorium after a hockey game snowed them in the previous night. Buffalo, NY was buried under 28 inches of snow from snow squalls with 25.3 inches falling in 24 hours to set a new 24 hour record until 1995. A huge arctic outbreak invaded the Deep South as high pressure was centered over eastern Texas. The zero degree isotherm was all the way to central Alabama and Georgia. The freezing line was all the way into central Florida. Locations that reported record low temperatures for the date included: Rapid City, SD: -21°, Akron, OH: -9°-Tied, Jackson, KY: -8°, Erie, PA: -8°, Youngstown, OH: -8°, Pittsburgh, PA: -8°, Oak Ridge, TN: -8°, Asheville, NC: -6°, Huntington, WV: -6°, Atlanta, GA: -5°, Lynchburg, VA: -3°, Huntsville, AL: -2°, Atlantic City, NJ: -2°, Newark, NJ: -2°, Birmingham, AL: -1°, Wilmington, DE: -1°, Athens, GA: 0°, Harrisburg, PA: 0°, Roanoke, VA: 0°, Augusta, GA: 1°, Baltimore, MD: 1°, Philadelphia, PA: 1°, Chattanooga, TN: 1°, Washington, DC: 2 °F. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)
 

1987 - A storm in the northeastern U.S. buried the mountains of central Vermont with up to 26 inches of snow, and snowfall totals in Maine ranged up to 27 inches at Telos Lake. Winds gusted to 45 mph at Newark NJ and Albany NY. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Snow and high winds in Utah resulted in a fifty car pile-up along Interstate 15. Winds in Wyoming gusted to 115 mph at Rendezvous Peak. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A cold front which the previous day produced 21 inches of snow at Stampede Pass WA and wind gusts to 75 mph at Mammoth Lakes CA, spread snow across Colorado. Totals in Colorado ranged up to 17 inches at Steamboat Springs. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - Strong northwesterly winds associated with a deep low pressure system crossing the Upper Great Lakes Region ushered cold air into the central U.S. Winds gusted to 72 mph at Fort Dodge IA, and wind gusts reached 75 mph at Yankton SD. Snow and high winds created blizzard conditions in northwestern Minnesota. Squalls produced heavy snow in parts of Upper Michigan and northern Lower Michigan, with 16 inches reported at Wakefield. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005: A big storm produced heavy rain and mountain snows across the Sierra Nevada area in California. Farewell Gap, CA recorded 152.5 inches of snow over a 5-day period beginning on the 7th. 123 inches of snow fell at Wet Meadow and 108” at Ostrander Lake, West Woodchuck Meadow and Pascoes, CA. For the 15 day period beginning 12/28/2004 through this date, Reno, NV picked up 81 inches of snow. The storm produced unprecedented rainfall across the lower elevations. Opid's Camp, CA measured 31.25 inches of rain in a 108 hour period. From 12/26/2004 through this date, the site picked up an amazing 51.77 inches of rain. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008 - Iraqis in Baghdad woke up to the novelty of falling snowflakes as the city experienced its first snowfall in about 100 years. (NCDC)

 

2010: Bitter cold temperatures gripped central and southern Florida with lows in the teens and 30s.

[weatherpruf]

7 hours ago, TriPol said:

I still can't believe Central Park only got 10 inches out of that storm.

i'm just across the river and iirc the bands just refused to cross.....about 6 inches here what a disappointment compared to areas south and east.

[Dark Star]

1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

43 / 40 0.70 inthe bucket last night.  Should see clearing and sunshine around noon or so.  Overall above normall till Wed.  Trough into the east / Ridge balloons and colder / below normal by the 16th..  Still have storm potential Jan 15 - Jan 19 or so or is it mainly dry.  Beyond there still looks to edge below normal overall.

 

A low cloud deck came in from the east around 9:30AM this morning and then dissapeared.  

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday, JFK Airport, LaGuardia Airport, and Newark all had highs of 53°. That followed their having identical highs of 54° a day earlier. The last time all three sites had identical highs on two consecutive days was November 11-12, 2025 when the highs were 42° and 51° respectively.

[MJO812]

The big storm is most likely off the table for next weekend. No 50 50 and lack of blocking. Hope for a weak storm at this point.

[Krs4Lfe]

Just now, MJO812 said:

The big storm is most likely off the table for next weekend. No 50 50 and lack of blocking. Hope for a weak storm at this point.

The same northern stream issues we've had for a while now. It's too far east and can't phase, so no storm can come up the coast. Also pretty much ruins the chances for the storm after that too, everything is shunted too far east. 

[wdrag]

Noticed little or no comment and no wind advisories for what I think will be a notable 1-5 hour burst of wind this evening that impacts air travel an maybe a few downed branches-power outages... I think this will evolve as the upper 5H trough etc swings neutral and intensifies in its passage tonight.  All yours... going to the movies and see some ping pong. 

 

The way the wind will show itself: right now, where it's downward transferring from is light. BUT, modeling continues to show rapid development of a strong wind field over 60 MPH at 5000 feet in southern PA/southern NJ 5P-8P, then that shifts northeast across northern PA, northern NJ/LI and se NYS 9PM-1AM with winds at 5000 feet further intensifying, then this departs PA/NJ for CT/MA in the 2A-6A Monday time frame. Soundings suggest AT Least Ridges above 1000 feet will gust briefly 50-55 MPH tonight. I suspect the valleys will be 45-50 MPH for an hour or two after nightfall. Explicit modeling has a little less than I expect so my confidence in wind driven isolated power outages and winds over 45 MPH is a little less than I'd like but I can't ignore some other data sets.  Scattered wind and snow shower impacts this evening. 

 

I only commented since I didn't see much chatter about this 

 

 

 

[MANDA]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The big storm is most likely off the table for next weekend. No 50 50 and lack of blocking. Hope for a weak storm at this point.

Lot's of energy expended last few days on this upcoming non event.   It never had any kind of remote support from ANY ensemble guidance and the best modeling we have (ECMWF) never had much of anything.  GFS is a follower not a leader.  Without some kind of steady multi cycle support from at least the CMC or better yet the EURO best to ignore it.  In my opinion the GFS will never be the first to sniff anything out 3-5+ days in advance.  MAYBE if it has some ensemble support from its own members it might deserve some attention otherwise I ignore it.

For now I'm more interested in the return to colder starting later next week and beyond.

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Lot's of energy expended last few days on this upcoming non event.   It never had any kind of remote support from ANY ensemble guidance and the best modeling we have (ECMWF) never had much of anything.  GFS is a follower not a leader.  Without some kind of steady multi cycle support from at least the CMC or better yet the EURO ignore it.  In my opinion the GFS will never be the first to sniff anything out 3-5+ days in advance.  MAYBE if it has some ensemble support from its own members it might deserve some attention otherwise I ignore it.

For now I'm more interested in the return to colder starting later next week and beyond.

Yeah we just have to hope that the cold air which returns around 1/14 can set up some semblance of a wintry pattern. We thawed very well over the past week and a return to colder weather would ideally bring some chances for winter weather but we've seen stranger things happen at this point 

[MANDA]

Rainfall was sparse up this way from event just ended.  I did better than I thought by a couple of tenths but just NW of here it was a struggle to reach 1/4".  Overall the dry pattern continues.  We're going to need a significant pattern shift to get some coastal systems or inland runners to boost the long term rainfall totals.

And before anyone says "what dryness" see the attached link.  It has been dry across NJ for the last 12+ months.

https://www.njweather.org/content/quickly-out-gatedrought-persists-december2025-annual-report

[MJO812]

Gfs should have been better. I wonder if the models are focusing on the wrong low.

[SACRUS]

 

Area of snow showers into CPA - wind will increase this afternoon into tomorrow morning perhaps some flakes / flurries later as well.

 

[NEG NAO]

Anybody else think this GFS solution at 12Z is looking weird ? Storm track is strange BUT that high in SE Canada is in the right place as the storm is intensifying offshore. Trough seems to have a negative tilt 

[SACRUS]

 

Warmup period so far

  SIte:  High / low (dep)
EWR:
1/6:  44 / 31 (+5)
1/7: 54 / 37 (+13)
1/8: 53 / 41 (+14)
1/9: 54 / 32 (+11)
1/10: 53 / 41 (+14)  0.52

NYC:
1/6: 42 / 35 (+5)
1/7: 49 / 37 (+9)
1/8: 50 / 32 (+12)
1/9: 54 / 39 (+13)
1/10: 52 / 39 (+12) 0.38

[SACRUS]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

A low cloud deck came in from the east around 9:30AM this morning and then dissapeared.  

 

Was clear for a bit now some clouds but more breaks to the west ahead of the snow showers/clouds in CPA

 

[Stormlover74]

40 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Lot's of energy expended last few days on this upcoming non event.   It never had any kind of remote support from ANY ensemble guidance and the best modeling we have (ECMWF) never had much of anything.  GFS is a follower not a leader.  Without some kind of steady multi cycle support from at least the CMC or better yet the EURO best to ignore it.  In my opinion the GFS will never be the first to sniff anything out 3-5+ days in advance.  MAYBE if it has some ensemble support from its own members it might deserve some attention otherwise I ignore it.

For now I'm more interested in the return to colder starting later next week and beyond.

I think it actually does on occasion sniff out the threat first.  It'll get everything else wrong of course and flip flop all over the place

[NEG NAO]

12Z Canadian is completely different then the GFS 

[Stormlover74]

Gfs is a big hit a week from now. Starts as rain and goes over to heavy snow. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is a big hit a week from now. Starts as rain and goes over to heavy snow. 

too warm that system but it's nice to look at

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is a big hit a week from now. Starts as rain and goes over to heavy snow. 

Canadian 12Z run is completely different next weekend to from the GFS

[Stormlover74]

Just now, NEG NAO said:

Canadian 12Z run is completely different next weekend to from the GFS

Yes we know. The gfs is wrong 

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Will be interesting to see if Upton and Mt. Holly believe their favorite model the GFS later today.

We're getting closer to go time, only 5 days away, so models should be coalescing around a scenario. Whether that's a large storm offshore like the GFS or no storm like ICON, or something in between. Very interesting to see all the dry air though even on the GFS during the storm.