January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[WeatherGeek2025]

Not really familiar with the CFS model but it literally has storm after storm and most of them look like coastals!  and a lot of snow for the next month! Very exciting times. 

[MANDA]

34 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

All the new players will be on the field next week - how those 2 disturbances too the west and south of us interact with each other will determine whether we have a chance of an East Coast Snowstorm. Strong ridging along the west coast helps transport the colder air in from Canada and blocks the Pacific Jet from flooding the country with warmer air which we have experienced recently - keeping that ridge in place and strong is very important

Ridge axis as shown is too far west for my liking but 204 hours out that can and and will change for better or worse.   Would also like to see the upper low over eastern Canada displaced more to the east and the corresponding ridge to the east displaced more SSW.   Not the most ideal map as shown.  Although kind of pointless to be dissecting a 204 hour prog. 

As we all know no phasing no big snows so a long ways to go but at least something to keep an eye on.

DEFCON 5

[MANDA]

Down to a trace of snow cover with 10% coverage.  Patches of snow only in heavily shaded north facing locations.  Will be gone by end of the day with much more sun than yesterday and the corresponding milder temperatures.

Now we wait....

[jm1220]

Should easily get to 50 for most today. Already mid 40s. My 25 for a low was done in a blink. 

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, MANDA said:

Down to a trace of snow cover with 10% coverage.  Patches of snow only in heavily shaded north facing locations.  Will be gone by end of the day with much more sun than yesterday and the corresponding milder temperatures.

Now we wait....

Only snow left by me is the piles left by the snow plows cleaning out the parking lots.

[eduggs]

The GFS and ECM ensembles continue to be strongly unsupportive of a snowstorm next week. It's a little surprising considering the forecasted high amplitude longwave trof in a favorable position. Right now there is way too much modeled vorticity in the Lakes region with one shortwave after another dropping through Michigan or southern Ontario keeping low surface pressure over the Great Lakes. The ECM is particularly hostile to a coastal snowstorm. The GFS at least looks marginally workable.

It's yet another reminder how the specific evolution of the 500mb height field is critical for snowstorms and the long range 500mb anomaly charts are poor predictors for snow.

[MANDA]

5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Only snow left by me is the piles left by the snow plows cleaning out the parking lots.

Some BIG parking lot mounds my area.  They will be around for a while.  Plowed areas in my neighborhood likely gone by the weekend.

[MJO812]

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[Krs4Lfe]

19 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GFS and ECM ensembles continue to be strongly unsupportive of a snowstorm not week. It's a little surprising considering the forecasted high amplitude longwave trof in a favorable position. Right now there is way too much modeled vorticity in the Lakes region with one shortwave after another dropping through Michigan or southern Ontario keeping low surface pressure over the Great Lakes. The ECM is particularly hostile to a coastal snowstorm. The GFS at least looks marginally workable.

It's yet another reminder how the specific evolution of the 500mb height field is critical for snowstorms and the long range 500mb anomaly charts are poor predictors for snow.

The low pressure over the lakes will not allow this storm to come up north. It acts as a kicker and pushes the weak low pressure out to sea. Regardless of any model surface map depictions, as long as you see that Great Lakes low, you can pretty much write off a storm climbing up the coast. Western ridge is in good spot. This is one of the times where we would want a western Atlantic ridge to try to trap that storm in. Still plenty of time for changes but until that changes, this threat is non existent 

[WeatherGeek2025]

why was the thread deleted? We might've jinxed it here lol

[NittanyWx]

Source region is rebuilt in western Canada by MLK weekend, offering a new cold air supply that should leak into the northeast.  I am seeing more signals for active southern stream as well.  Think end Jan to early Feb looks pretty decent setup wise at this early juncture as well.

[eduggs]

The ICON would be a nice snowstorm for most of our area if it played out that way.

But the 12z ICON is significantly different than the 6z GFS and 0z ECM plus almost all individual ensemble members.

By 0z Tue, the initial shortwave energy to eventually carve out the longwave trof in the MS valley is in WYOMING on the ICON. But it is noticeably further east through the DAKOTAS on the GFS and ECM. Related to this feature is the phasing of the upper level low in the Southwest US. The further west positioning of the northern stream shortwave on the ICON allows most of the southern stream energy to phase into the developing longwave trof, which sets the stage for a much better trof orientation and 500mb height field. I think the ICON is wrong with this feature, but I'll be watching subsequent runs closely.

[eduggs]

FWIW, the 0z CMC/GDPS did phase some of the southern stream like the 12z ICON. Not perfectly clean, but enough.

[Rjay]

17 minutes ago, eduggs said:

FWIW, the 0z CMC/GDPS did phase some of the southern stream like the 12z ICON. Not perfectly clean, but enough.

Also the 0z geps had a more much meridonal flow over the center of the country than the eps/gefs but that's just me weenieing. 

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

why was the thread deleted? We might've jinxed it here lol

Gfs is slowly coming around to a coastal . 

[eduggs]

The GFS isn't particularly close. But the CMC did phase a little bit. On the 12z CMC so far, some aspects are better than 0z, some worse. I hate having both the GFS and ECM against us.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The GFS isn't particularly close. But the CMC did phase a little bit. On the 12z CMC so far, some aspects are better than 0z, some worse. I hate having both the GFS and ECM against us.

Gfs has been atrocious. It also always does this with coastals.  

The trough is defintely deeper on the gfs.

[WeatherGeek2025]

the potential is there for the biggest storm thus far this year if all things go well. Is Walt around? Maybe he could give her insight?

[eduggs]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs has been atrocious. It also always does this with coastals.  

The trough is defintely deeper on the gfs.

We need a surface low to develop in the southeast. With offshore baroclinicity and low pressure over the Lakes, it won't work (e.g., GFS, ECM, and even now CMC). In this scenario, it's too late except for maybe EMA and Maine. A phrase between a northern stream shortwave embedded in the longwave trof and the southern US ULL would probably initiate the surface low that we need. But so far, only the ICON is showing this.

ICON Progression:

[WeatherGeek2025]

cmc is a strung out mess

[Stormlover74]

11 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

the potential is there for the biggest storm thus far this year if all things go well. Is Walt around? Maybe he could give her insight?

Its not looking good. I feel like we wait til after the 20th for anything significant 

[WeatherGeek2025]

13 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its not looking good. I feel like we wait til after the 20th for anything significant 

i disagree, i think our biggest snow threat this year will be next week. That favorable pattern continues into february

[eduggs]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its not looking good. I feel like we wait til after the 20th for anything significant 

There's no reason to believe there's any better period coming out beyond the range of models.

[Jt17]

Its not looking good. I feel like we wait til after the 20th for anything significant 

There's literally a coastal storm signal on a bunch of the models for the 15th/16th. This comment makes no sense.


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[Jersey_Snowhole]

Just now, WeatherGeek2025 said:

i disagree, i think our biggest snow threat this year will be next week. That favorable pattern continues into february

Favorable pattern doesn’t guarantee KU’s

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

There's no reason to believe there's any better period coming out beyond the range of models.

but there's no reason to believe it's not either. It's a crap shoot!

[snowman19]

21 minutes ago, eduggs said:

There's no reason to believe there's any better period coming out beyond the range of models.

My question is this….Are we possibly missing an elephant in the room here? I think there is another underlying reason other than the virtually nonexistent STJ (from La Niñas) that the last couple of winters have had a total lack of “KU”, coastal bombs in this region….the Gulf Stream. Look at how anomalously far south/east and well off shore it has been….it pushes the baroclinic zone way far east and south. Also, the unusual, very cold waters off shore along the northeast and mid-Atlantic coast from all the arctic cold and very strong NWerly wind events we’ve been seeing. In response, the baroclinic zone is way south and east, well off shore along the displaced Gulf Stream 
 

[Krs4Lfe]

39 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

There's literally a coastal storm signal on a bunch of the models for the 15th/16th. This comment makes no sense.


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Too much energy flying around. With a low in the great lakes, nothing is coming up the coast. 

[eduggs]

The GEFS, EPS, EC-AI, and GFS-AI have been trending away from phasing the southern stream energy, leading to an increasingly positive tilted longwave trof. That won't work here for a coastal snowstorm. None of the individual GEFS ensemble members and maybe 1 EPS member support the ICON phasing idea. We need big improvements fast.

[eduggs]

The 12z ECM has a little more phasing this run. The southern stream ULL tracks slightly further east, allowing a bit of energy to get to the downstream side of the trof. And then by 12z Wed there is a weak surface reflection near the panhandle of Florida. I'm happy to see this on the ECM!