26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

ALY will probably hold, or at least a WWA...no watch yet I don't think here, maybe south Litchfield cty.

You may have a watch there if euro ticks NE again . You’re pretty far west and longitude is the key. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Watches will probably go to RI border later today 

[weatherwiz]

Depending on how the euro swings, I wonder if we could even go straight to Winter Storm Warnings 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Depending on how the euro swings, I wonder if we could even go straight to Winter Storm Warnings 

Nah…still a full day plus left, so no need imo. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Nah…still a full day plus left, so no need imo. 

I def see warnings for at least half the state 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Nah…still a full day plus left, so no need imo. 

I'm also factoring in holiday travel. Winter Storm Watches certainly raises awareness but you figure alot of people will probably be wanting to adjust plans today. In a normal scenario I think it would be watches then warnings tonight but holiday travel may factor into the decision making. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Very dry air at the outset...I mean -9f dews at the surface in BDR.  The GFS radar progs show the heavy stuff moving in and out in a big hurry.  I agree with those saying we need to temper expectations.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I def see warnings for at least half the state 

But he said go straight to a warning, where no watches are currently up. I don’t think we’ll see that. 

[Ginx snewx]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Very dry air at the outset...I mean -9f dews at the surface in BDR.  The GFS radar progs show the heavy stuff moving in and out in a big hurry.  I agree with those saying we need to temper expectations.

To be fair that's a typical pre storm sounding saturating from the top down.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Very dry air at the outset...I mean -9f dews at the surface in BDR.  The GFS radar progs show the heavy stuff moving in and out in a big hurry.  I agree with those saying we need to temper expectations.

We should saturate quickly but this will be a concern along the fringes of the precipitation shield. The bigger concern with dry air IMO is how quickly does dry air filter in aloft...that is going to cut down the banding very quickly. This is one of the reasons I think its just a 3 hour or so period of very heavy snowfall and why I think max totals will be 6-8" versus something like 9-10" or 9-12"

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

But he said go straight to a warning, where no watches are currently up. I don’t think we’ll see that. 

Who cares

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm also factoring in holiday travel. Winter Storm Watches certainly raises awareness but you figure alot of people will probably be wanting to adjust plans today. In a normal scenario I think it would be watches then warnings tonight but holiday travel may factor into the decision making. 

Good points, Could be…but I don’t think they’re gonna jump yet. Too much uncertainty yet. Dry air, how far this goes NE….etc. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Who cares

Ya…was just replying to him. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ya…was just replying to him. 

Where are you on this map. This looks like what I expect. 

[Spanks45]

43 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would certainly hold off traveling Saturday morning, where to in PA? 

Lancaster County

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Good points, Could be…but I don’t think they’re gonna jump yet. Too much uncertainty yet. Dry air, how far this goes NE….etc. 

No disagreement there. The uncertainty is definitely there, particularly moving northeast of Fairfield County. 

Here is HREF probability for 1"+ per hour rates. Right on the border getting into Hartford and eastern half of New Haven County. I guess it may just come down to how confident the forecaster is in meeting warning criteria. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Where are you on this map. This looks like what I expect. 

That’s should shift 50-75 miles NE and will be about right 

[UnitedWx]

17 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I def see warnings for at least half the state 

Considering the time frame I would expect they'd go watches first at least in some areas for this evening and then switch over tomorrow. We have all day tomorrow really before it gets started

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s should shift 50-75 miles NE and will be about right 

Got to watch the NE banding. Surprised folks?

[512high]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Got to watch the NE banding. Surprised folks?

Please spread the wealth!

[Ginx snewx]

Euro coming in hot. Oh boy oh boy

[weatherwiz]

Euro may be a bit more northeast too...tough to tell but regardless looks pretty solid for much of CT with a quick glance 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Euro back to the 00z look after 6z bumped SW

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Euro coming in hot. Oh boy oh boy

Can you please post one frame before this (39)?

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, mob1 said:

Can you please post one frame before this (39)?

Sure but snow at 54

[weatherwiz]

Weakens a bit crossing CT but this would lead to a helluva dump. It just sucks this is going to be in and out. But I am feeling confident much of the state will get 4-8 inches. My map yesterday looks very stupid now. I think the ranges with this will have to be a bit larger than usual because of the cutoff that will occur

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Euro may be a bit more northeast too...tough to tell but regardless looks pretty solid for much of CT with a quick glance 

30 miles NE

[tavwtby]

straight to warning here 

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

straight to warning here 

Here we go 

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
  7 inches.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern
  Litchfield Counties. In New York, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern
  Greene, and Western Dutchess Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Moderate to heavy snow will develop around or
  just after sunset Friday, and will remain heavy at times Friday
  night. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible
  Friday evening. The snow gradually

[tavwtby]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Here we go 

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
  7 inches.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern
  Litchfield Counties. In New York, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern
  Greene, and Western Dutchess Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Moderate to heavy snow will develop around or
  just after sunset Friday, and will remain heavy at times Friday
  night. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible
  Friday evening. The snow gradually

bit shocked they went straight to warning, but I guess they are figuring in travel etc., I'm expecting low end of that 5-7", but we'll have to see where the banding sets up, should go to town for a few hours overnight anyway.