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26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.


Go Kart Mozart
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2 minutes ago, tavwtby said:

ALY will probably hold, or at least a WWA...no watch yet I don't think here, maybe south Litchfield cty.

You may have a watch there if euro ticks NE again . You’re pretty far west and longitude is the key. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Nah…still a full day plus left, so no need imo. 

I'm also factoring in holiday travel. Winter Storm Watches certainly raises awareness but you figure alot of people will probably be wanting to adjust plans today. In a normal scenario I think it would be watches then warnings tonight but holiday travel may factor into the decision making. 

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2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Very dry air at the outset...I mean -9f dews at the surface in BDR.  The GFS radar progs show the heavy stuff moving in and out in a big hurry.  I agree with those saying we need to temper expectations.

download.png

To be fair that's a typical pre storm sounding saturating from the top down.

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2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Very dry air at the outset...I mean -9f dews at the surface in BDR.  The GFS radar progs show the heavy stuff moving in and out in a big hurry.  I agree with those saying we need to temper expectations.

download.png

We should saturate quickly but this will be a concern along the fringes of the precipitation shield. The bigger concern with dry air IMO is how quickly does dry air filter in aloft...that is going to cut down the banding very quickly. This is one of the reasons I think its just a 3 hour or so period of very heavy snowfall and why I think max totals will be 6-8" versus something like 9-10" or 9-12"

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I'm also factoring in holiday travel. Winter Storm Watches certainly raises awareness but you figure alot of people will probably be wanting to adjust plans today. In a normal scenario I think it would be watches then warnings tonight but holiday travel may factor into the decision making. 

Good points, Could be…but I don’t think they’re gonna jump yet. Too much uncertainty yet. Dry air, how far this goes NE….etc. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Good points, Could be…but I don’t think they’re gonna jump yet. Too much uncertainty yet. Dry air, how far this goes NE….etc. 

No disagreement there. The uncertainty is definitely there, particularly moving northeast of Fairfield County. 

Here is HREF probability for 1"+ per hour rates. Right on the border getting into Hartford and eastern half of New Haven County. I guess it may just come down to how confident the forecaster is in meeting warning criteria. 

image.thumb.png.481496531981c50ae41915cc92e6732a.png

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Weakens a bit crossing CT but this would lead to a helluva dump. It just sucks this is going to be in and out. But I am feeling confident much of the state will get 4-8 inches. My map yesterday looks very stupid now. I think the ranges with this will have to be a bit larger than usual because of the cutoff that will occur

image.png.9b1a894bde97a5264110869611aebf86.png

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1 minute ago, tavwtby said:

straight to warning here 

Here we go 

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
  7 inches.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern
  Litchfield Counties. In New York, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern
  Greene, and Western Dutchess Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Moderate to heavy snow will develop around or
  just after sunset Friday, and will remain heavy at times Friday
  night. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible
  Friday evening. The snow gradually
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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Here we go 

WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 5 and
  7 inches.

* WHERE...In Connecticut, Northern Litchfield and Southern
  Litchfield Counties. In New York, Eastern Dutchess, Eastern
  Greene, and Western Dutchess Counties.

* WHEN...From 4 PM Friday to 1 PM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous. Travel could be difficult. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Moderate to heavy snow will develop around or
  just after sunset Friday, and will remain heavy at times Friday
  night. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible
  Friday evening. The snow gradually

bit shocked they went straight to warning, but I guess they are figuring in travel etc., I'm expecting low end of that 5-7", but we'll have to see where the banding sets up, should go to town for a few hours overnight anyway.

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