Boxing Night Snow/Sleet/Ice Dec 26-27 Storm Thread/Obs.

[anthonyweather]

Geezus the NAM oh well IIce storm it is. At least for now

And it’s dried out … less than .15” qpf. Non event really


.

[RedSky]

The NAM is cousin Eddie showin up for the Holiday

[penndotguy]

5 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

And it’s dried out … less than .15” qpf. Non event really


.

Yeah, this is turning into a non event for sure. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Fv3 is a significant snowstorm ha!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Hrrr looks like the upgraded NAM with NYC dryslotted and a stripe over S PA.

Model mayhem

[Ralph Wiggum]

AIGFS all snow SE PA

[LVblizzard]

Forecasting this is like blindly throwing darts at the models and hoping one will be right. It's such a weird setup and the models apparently don't know how to handle it. You can't really look at past storms as analogs with this either because it's so rare to get storms like this.

[Ralph Wiggum]

9 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

Yeah, this is turning into a non event for sure. 

I dont believe this is a "non event". 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, LVblizzard said:

Forecasting this is like blindly throwing darts at the models and hoping one will be right. It's such a weird setup and the models apparently don't know how to handle it. You can't really look at past storms as analogs with this either because it's so rare to get storms like this.

Yep. Complete nowcast event probably.

[RedSky]

New NAM is coming north by how much will soon know

[LVblizzard]

None of the other 0z mesos look remotely like that NAM run. I'm tossing the NAM at this point as it's such a big outlier.

[LVblizzard]

9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep. Complete nowcast event probably.

It sucks running a page with 13k followers during a storm like this. You barely have a clue but the people demand numbers and you just have to do your best.

[RedSky]

New NAM is great if you live in Monmouth County

[ChescoWx]

13 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

It sucks running a page with 13k followers during a storm like this. You barely have a clue but the people demand numbers and you just have to do your best.

 I feel your pain Lvblizzard I have gained 1500 folks in the last 10 days and am approching like you 13k follower on my page....I am stunned how many folks in our area are so into the weather...good luck!!

[RedSky]

22 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

None of the other 0z mesos look remotely like that NAM run. I'm tossing the NAM at this point as it's such a big outlier.

The RGEM moved 30-40 miles northeast its ugly

[RedSky]

GFS slight shift northeast 10 miles 

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

None of the other 0z mesos look remotely like that NAM run. I'm tossing the NAM at this point as it's such a big outlier.

This is my typical old fart storm. Yes I agree toss the NAM. This is why 35 years + of experience is also telling me like what  I posted on your facebook site today---This is a strictly a soundings location event. Biggest take away- watch for those fatty pancake flakes to accumulate quickly right before the changeover to sleet. The snow winner will be wherever the zero line does not get penetrated and those pancake flakes do not changeover to sleet. LV will be in the thick of it. Elevation means squat in this event for the LV, its where the warm nose tongue aloft sticks out. Hope it shows its tongue as far west as Reading only, then the LV will see 8-12 in. Seen it before.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Updated:

 

[Duca892]

Can I ask why is NWS so fairly bullish on this one? What models are outputting 4in in Philly, 6in in Allentown etc 

[Birds~69]

Thinking 2-3" snow then crunchy crunch crunch. Not horrible. At least we are tracking something.....

Merry Christmas all!

33F

 

[Birds~69]

[dseagull]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

Can I ask why is NWS so fairly bullish on this one? What models are outputting 4in in Philly, 6in in Allentown etc 

They are broadcasting to an entire region of the country.   They cannot sway back and forth.  If the models continue to pull back for three consecutive runs, they will slowly reduce their forecasts.  A bunch of weather enthusiasts call it "saving face," but it's actually been a standard for a long time.  Public safety is their number one concern, so a bust isnt actually a bad outcome in terms of forecasting for a government agency.  Agree though, this is trending wayyyyyy N and somewhat E.

[Violentweatherfan]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Updated:

 

Even newer update 

[Ralph Wiggum]

35 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Even newer update 

Thats what I was waiting for. Ty

[penndotguy]

Pretty amazing 2days ago I thought there was no chance this would trend N with the blocking that was forecast but I’ve been around here long enough to know  i should’ve known better than to trust any models 4-5 days out. By days end this will be a nothing burger for this sub forum. 
Merry Christmas