Possible Light Snowfall (1" - 4") on Tuesday Dec 23

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Then there's the gfs

when you see something like this - it shows the models still haven't figured out how to handle this situation along with the NAM showing little or nothing . Need to get closer to get a better idea............

[donsutherland1]

The latest from WPC:

[MJO812]

Every model coming in further south at 12z

[MJO812]

Gfs

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs

this would be considered a white Christmas

[Northof78]

Nice trends over past day or so, of south/colder, TTN N looks good for 1-3"

[sussexcountyobs]

http://youtube.com/post/UgkxqJNruw0VV6CFUpiaAINruvu2TBBBpsrK?si=Uf-dMFelpUCGyPJG

[Picard]

If it turns out like the last one, some of us up here would surprise with 6".
Can it happen twice in a row?

[sussexcountyobs]

If anyone is interested? Bobby Martrich has Steve D. as special guest on his Sunday Weather Weeklies video on you tube.

[snowman19]

Nice trends over past day or so, of south/colder, TTN N looks good for 1-3"

The National Weather Service disagrees with you:

Anticipated snowfall map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

New disco:


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Light snow likely late Monday night transitions to a mixture of
rain and snow near the coast Tuesday morning and mostly light snow
inland.

* Accumulations are expected to be light and under an inch
(potentially just a coating) for NYC metro, Long Island, and
coastal southeast CT with 1-2 inches possible for interior Lower
Hudson Valley, interior southwest CT, and interior NE NJ.

* Slightly below normal temperatures Monday into Tuesday.

High pressure moves over the region on Monday with dry conditions
prevailing.

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The National Weather Service disagrees with you:

Anticipated snowfall map: https://www.weather.gov/okx/winter

New disco:


.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

* Light snow likely late Monday night transitions to a mixture of
rain and snow near the coast Tuesday morning and mostly light snow
inland.

* Accumulations are expected to be light and under an inch
(potentially just a coating) for NYC metro, Long Island, and
coastal southeast CT with 1-2 inches possible for interior Lower
Hudson Valley, interior southwest CT, and interior NE NJ.

* Slightly below normal temperatures Monday into Tuesday.

High pressure moves over the region on Monday with dry conditions
prevailing.

I'm thinking up to a coating in the City (<1") and maybe 1"-2" well north and west. There may be more downside risks than upside ones for the City e.g., precipitation rate might be too light. White Plains might be around an inch or so. 

[the_other_guy]

15 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm thinking up to a coating in the City (<1") and maybe 1"-2" well north and west. There may be more downside risks than upside ones for the City e.g., precipitation rate might be too light. White Plains might be around an inch or so. 

This^

[MJO812]

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I'm thinking up to a coating in the City (<1") and maybe 1"-2" well north and west. There may be more downside risks than upside ones for the City e.g., precipitation rate might be too light. White Plains might be around an inch or so. 

I like a dusting to an inch for the city with with slightly more north and west. It will be cold enough to snow but it will only stick in the city on colder surfaces. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

last storm CP NYC got 2.9 and I am southwest of them in Extreme northern  Middlesex County NJ and I got somewhere between 5 and 6 inches  -- to be safe I am staying with 1 -4 for  my area as of now...........changes still possible before showtime.......

this is a coating to 2 inches tops in my opinion everywhere unless you go to northwest Ct and Southwest Mass where they can get up to 5 inches 

[WeatherGeek2025]

46 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

glad you are so confident - thats why I said said changes still possible- could end up being nothing too still have over 40 hours to go......

it's just my opinion it doesn't mean it's right but from personal experience this is a nuisance snow that basically is gone the next day

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

it's just my opinion it doesn't mean it's right but from personal experience this is a nuisance snow that basically is gone the next day

Exactly

[MJO812]

Nam

[sussexcountyobs]

White Christmas incoming.

[MJO812]

Steve D

[NEG NAO]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Steve D

and if the precip arrives a couple hours earlier that # 1 area will be further south and east and if it is delayed a few hours arriving that # 3 area will expand further north that why I am sticking with 1 -4 for my area as of now - this is a perfect example of threading the needle..........should be interesting how most school districts handle this because many have early dismissal on Tuesday for the holidays - can't have a delayed opening on those days because it won't count as a 4 hour day........

[MJO812]

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