12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[winter_warlock]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I'm a little late changing from my Fall pic aren't I? 

Yeah just a bit lol

[WhiteoutMD]

Talking about the main slug and overall precip field. Low closer to coast too.

 
 

YES !


.

[Terpeast]

Updated. 1” line moved significantly NW

 

[winter_warlock]

Canadian 12z ..

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Updated. 1” line moved significantly NW

 

Love the perfect straight line up Carroll county lol 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I feel like it's not a big nw jog. The precipitation area has expanded to include a lot more people. 

Yup. Said that in my post last night too. Precip is developing earlier(further west) rather than right overhead.

[winter_warlock]

Looking like a decent 3-6 inch snowstorm for a lot of us in central md se pa, northern Delaware. Alot of us are probably going to exceed December climo snow before mid month!

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Watching for an expansion of wwa west to cover Loudoun and Frederick counties

I don’t understand why this is not a warning for Carrol, Baltimore, Harford counties.  With the cold air mass in place and the possibility for moderate to heavy snow over a short period of time roads will be extremely bad.

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

14 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Updated. 1” line moved significantly NW

 

How is that 1" for D.C.?  lmao

Same with Baltimore. The numerical values don't match the gradients. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I don’t understand why this is not a warning for Carrol, Baltimore, Harford counties.  With the cold air mass in place and the possibility for moderate to heavy snow over a short period of time roads will be extremely bad.

 I agree.  Latest modeling shows warning criteria for a lot of us . Maybe LWX is waiting till the afternoon update

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I don’t understand why this is not a warning for Carrol, Baltimore, Harford counties.  With the cold air mass in place and the possibility for moderate to heavy snow over a short period of time roads will be extremely bad.

I mean a warning is 5” or more,  not road conditions haha. 

[batmanbrad]

1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

I don’t understand why this is not a warning for Carrol, Baltimore, Harford counties.  With the cold air mass in place and the possibility for moderate to heavy snow over a short period of time roads will be extremely bad.

I'd think if the more bullish model trends continue (let's see how the Euro's 12Z run looks), NWS could issue some warnings with their afternoon package if there's a decent chance the necessary criteria for a warning could be met.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

How is that 1" for D.C.?  lmao

Color code says 2 to 3. Noaa is goofy lol

[FBXwinterfan]

I was surprised to see Spotsylvania roads pre-treated for maybe flurries. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I mean a warning is 5” or more,  not road conditions haha. 

Actually, no, I’ve seen a warning for a 2 to 4 inch so I think they take into consideration overall conditions, especially if there is a chance for dynamic snow that’s gonna take people by surprise

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, FBXwinterfan said:

I was surprised to see Spotsylvania roads pre-treated for maybe flurries. 

They gotta  do that and use the stuff to get there budget for next year

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Canadian 12z ..

I think better than 10:1 under heavy echos.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Actually, no, I’ve seen a warning for a 2 to 4 inch so I think they take into consideration overall conditions, especially if there is a chance for dynamic snow that’s gonna take people by surprise

They also take into account location. If u live in Alabama, a 1 to 3 inch storm is warning level. We're as that's just an advisory here,.. but I could be totally wrong...  As my wife likes to tell me lol

[Weather Will]

WB 15Z HRRR at HR 18.

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Actually, no, I’ve seen a warning for a 2 to 4 inch so I think they take into consideration overall conditions, especially if there is a chance for dynamic snow that’s gonna take people by surprise

Are you sure you aren't thinking about the 1" "during commute" for advisories. I do not recall something like you are mentioning in my 34 years living here. 

[mitchnick]

Canadian Kuchie 

[TSSN+]

Ukmet makes no friends for dc area. 

[LP08]

I know the UKIE probably nails the H500 pattern over the UK.  But yeesh that’s ugly here.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet makes no friends for dc area. 

Well is the ukmet so...

[NorthArlington101]

UKIE is in the range of models on precip but it insists it’s mostly rain. Gonna first lean on all other models, the NWS, and WPC on ptype 

[Terpeast]

Initial call. A lot could change as this is really a nowcast event, so I feel like I’m really sticking my neck out on this one. I’d also add an inch over the delmarva east of the bay north of 50

 

[MDScienceTeacher]

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Are you sure you aren't thinking about the 1" "during commute" for advisories. I do not recall something like you are mentioning in my 34 years living here. 

Maybe it was an icing situation I am thinking about. Which would make more sense.

[stormtracker]

59 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

??

this is better than 06z for almost everyone here 

Lol

I gotta stop reading this thread.   I see posts and expect the worst and then get to this.  

[aldie 22]

I like how the HRR shows the heaviest snow to the south but the accumulations over Wills house. I think he prefers that model 

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Initial call. A lot could change as this is really a nowcast event, so I feel like I’m really sticking my neck out on this one. I’d also add an inch over the delmarva east of the bay north of 50

 

4-7" just north of Baltimore? Holy shit!