winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yeah I'm a little late changing from my Fall pic aren't I? Yeah just a bit lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Talking about the main slug and overall precip field. Low closer to coast too. YES ! . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Updated. 1” line moved significantly NW 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Canadian 12z .. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Updated. 1” line moved significantly NW Love the perfect straight line up Carroll county lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 9 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I feel like it's not a big nw jog. The precipitation area has expanded to include a lot more people. Yup. Said that in my post last night too. Precip is developing earlier(further west) rather than right overhead. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Looking like a decent 3-6 inch snowstorm for a lot of us in central md se pa, northern Delaware. Alot of us are probably going to exceed December climo snow before mid month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Watching for an expansion of wwa west to cover Loudoun and Frederick counties I don’t understand why this is not a warning for Carrol, Baltimore, Harford counties. With the cold air mass in place and the possibility for moderate to heavy snow over a short period of time roads will be extremely bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Updated. 1” line moved significantly NW How is that 1" for D.C.? lmao Same with Baltimore. The numerical values don't match the gradients. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I don’t understand why this is not a warning for Carrol, Baltimore, Harford counties. With the cold air mass in place and the possibility for moderate to heavy snow over a short period of time roads will be extremely bad. I agree. Latest modeling shows warning criteria for a lot of us . Maybe LWX is waiting till the afternoon update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I don’t understand why this is not a warning for Carrol, Baltimore, Harford counties. With the cold air mass in place and the possibility for moderate to heavy snow over a short period of time roads will be extremely bad. I mean a warning is 5” or more, not road conditions haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
batmanbrad Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I don’t understand why this is not a warning for Carrol, Baltimore, Harford counties. With the cold air mass in place and the possibility for moderate to heavy snow over a short period of time roads will be extremely bad. I'd think if the more bullish model trends continue (let's see how the Euro's 12Z run looks), NWS could issue some warnings with their afternoon package if there's a decent chance the necessary criteria for a warning could be met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: How is that 1" for D.C.? lmao Color code says 2 to 3. Noaa is goofy lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FBXwinterfan Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 I was surprised to see Spotsylvania roads pre-treated for maybe flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I mean a warning is 5” or more, not road conditions haha. Actually, no, I’ve seen a warning for a 2 to 4 inch so I think they take into consideration overall conditions, especially if there is a chance for dynamic snow that’s gonna take people by surprise 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, FBXwinterfan said: I was surprised to see Spotsylvania roads pre-treated for maybe flurries. They gotta do that and use the stuff to get there budget for next year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 12 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Canadian 12z .. I think better than 10:1 under heavy echos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Actually, no, I’ve seen a warning for a 2 to 4 inch so I think they take into consideration overall conditions, especially if there is a chance for dynamic snow that’s gonna take people by surprise They also take into account location. If u live in Alabama, a 1 to 3 inch storm is warning level. We're as that's just an advisory here,.. but I could be totally wrong... As my wife likes to tell me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 WB 15Z HRRR at HR 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 3 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Actually, no, I’ve seen a warning for a 2 to 4 inch so I think they take into consideration overall conditions, especially if there is a chance for dynamic snow that’s gonna take people by surprise Are you sure you aren't thinking about the 1" "during commute" for advisories. I do not recall something like you are mentioning in my 34 years living here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Canadian Kuchie 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 Ukmet makes no friends for dc area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 I know the UKIE probably nails the H500 pattern over the UK. But yeesh that’s ugly here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Just now, TSSN+ said: Ukmet makes no friends for dc area. Well is the ukmet so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 UKIE is in the range of models on precip but it insists it’s mostly rain. Gonna first lean on all other models, the NWS, and WPC on ptype 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Initial call. A lot could change as this is really a nowcast event, so I feel like I’m really sticking my neck out on this one. I’d also add an inch over the delmarva east of the bay north of 50 14 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Are you sure you aren't thinking about the 1" "during commute" for advisories. I do not recall something like you are mentioning in my 34 years living here. Maybe it was an icing situation I am thinking about. Which would make more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 59 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: ?? this is better than 06z for almost everyone here Lol I gotta stop reading this thread. I see posts and expect the worst and then get to this. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 I like how the HRR shows the heaviest snow to the south but the accumulations over Wills house. I think he prefers that model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Initial call. A lot could change as this is really a nowcast event, so I feel like I’m really sticking my neck out on this one. I’d also add an inch over the delmarva east of the bay north of 50 4-7" just north of Baltimore? Holy shit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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