Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

good move west but still a miss?

 

yes but SE Pa approves of the moves.  They are back in game.  Not sure how long youve been doing this, but this is normal and expected ebbs and flows of modelwatchology.  

[WmsptWx]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

yes but SE Pa approves of the moves.  They are back in game.  Not sure how long youve been doing this, but this is normal and expected ebbs and flows of modelwatchology.  

And being in Reading, he likely benefits from the current tick moreso than others. 

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

12z GFS is looking much better


.

500 dives in nicely.  Good step towards somethin.  

[Storm Clouds]

That is a BRUTAL cut off north of MD line…

[pasnownut]

GFS says 4-6" for philly

Nice step.

[pasnownut]

Just now, Storm Clouds said:

That is a BRUTAL cut off north of MD line…

nothin atypical of miller A's.  winners n losers on NW quadrant of qpf shield know this all too well.  

 

[GrandmasterB]

9 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

good move west but still a miss?

 

Read more and post less for now. There are dozens of model runs throughout the day and locking in any one model solution 72+ hours out is foolish. I suggest reading the NWS discussions each day and learning from the seasoned folks on this board. Saying “congrats X location” or “way east” after each run will get a lot of buns thrown your way. 

[pasnownut]

lower Chessy I see a 28" max that was 150 miles south 2 runs ago.  

lower astern shore went kaboom

 

 

[Jns2183]

I hope we score something because right now most models give .10 qpf the next 10-15 days. That ranks in bottom 10% of all periods with a mean temperature at or below what they are predicting for averag temperature

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[MickeyTim6533]

CMC says not so fast

[pasnownut]

CMC wonky and SE evolution out to 102.  

[MickeyTim6533]

GFS all alone it seems

[pasnownut]

Pos tilt on CMC is no crowd pleaser.  gonna scoot me thinks.

[MickeyTim6533]

5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Pos tilt on CMC is no crowd pleaser.  gonna scoot me thinks.

yes, def does

[GrandmasterB]

Ripped from MA but I think this is spot on messaging. It’s an extremely delicate set-up where a 100 mile shift will make a significant sensible weather difference:

KEY MESSAGE 3...Monitoring the potential for a coastal system
this weekend.

Very favorable storm patten in terms of analogs for big snows in
the Mid-Atlantic this weekend. A 50/50 low & -NAO, Idaho Ridge,
blocking over the Hudson Bay, and trough moving into the east
Pac. Couldn`t ask for a better synoptic setup, but the formation
of a storm remains in the details of this highly sensitive
pattern.

Guidance continues to show a Miller A type Nor`easter (it has
been a while for one to form, let alone show up in model
guidance). While the ceiling is certainly high for this storm,
there is equally if not higher odds it just skirts out to see as
indicated by the latest 00Z guidance and ensembles. Future runs
will have to be seen if this is a trend or noise. How the TPV
evolves will be one of the biggest factors on if this storm
comes to fruition or not and impacts land.

Regardless, expect fluctuations over the next day or two until
the pattern is better sampled as associated energy is onshore
across the western US.

[sauss06]

regardless of what happens with this weekend storm, you couldn't effing pay me enough money to sit in the stands in happy valley to watch a hockey game, January 31st. F that

[MickeyTim6533]

EUKIE way east.

[pasnownut]

Remind me not to give my opinions before run finishes.  

CMC ries for a late save.  Still a miss but still rather close. QPF still in SE pa. they get scrapped.

 

[paweather5]

[anotherman]

2 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

Too bad it's the GFS.

[pasnownut]

Ukie misses the phase at 500, hence the easter solution.

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Too bad it's the GFS.

Yeaaaaa. Can’t feel too good if the Euro stays east. The world vs the GFS is the new the world vs the NAM. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, anotherman said:

Too bad it's the GFS.

Icon was trying.

CMC wonky - east but could be right

UKI east.

 consensus IMO - there is none yet

[MickeyTim6533]

[Jns2183]

This storm seems like it can only succeed by threading the needle where it's almost all or nothing. If any storm has the potential to be a last second bust or surprise storm aka January 2000 it's this one. I think I'm just going to take a break till Friday evening and check on it then. Also we don't need to know about every model miss if that's your entire contribution. if you can't at least add something about its evolution or something of value.

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[Jns2183]

At this stage if you're going to look at run to run focus solely on the 500mb evolution. Without that there is nothing

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[mahantango#1]

I hope the storm comes north and west and buries us all in 2 feet of snow on top of what we already have on the ground.

[pasnownut]

until models resolve what bundle of fun to focus on, easter - wester solutions will continue. 

west solutions show better phasing where easter ones keep separate and more progressive look.

500s diving in on all, so we still need to resolve how well upper and lower levels want to play together. 

All the fixins are there for a vertically stacked humdinger, but just like a great football team, you can have all the right players, but that only looks good on paper when you are golfing during the post season. 

[pasnownut]

1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said:

I hope the storm comes north and west and buries us all in 2 feet of snow on top of what we already have on the ground.

You slip on da ice???

You OK. 

Us snohounds are proud of you.  

[canderson]

4 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I hope the storm comes north and west and buries us all in 2 feet of snow on top of what we already have on the ground.

Issue here will be winds. If we get snow we’ll also getting 50-60 mph winds probably