Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Like that asshole deserves the attaboy.

He made his call 2 days after I said the same amount.   

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, WmsptWx said:

Like that asshole deserves the attaboy.

Agree, just shitting on every event bound to get it right…there’s a reason our climo is what it is. 
 

it’s been a nice wintry morning, snow bands on and off, just had some pretty moderate rates the last hour or so. 

[Jns2183]

Actually ended up hitting just over 5". My daughter's school who confidently went with a two hour delay last night woke me up early with a message that they meant a two hour delay to the "flexible instructional day", they just forget to add "flexible instructional day" to the message last night.

It's absolutely beautiful outside. Still not much wind which is probably a very good thing with how caked.

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[canderson]

So I measured 3.6”. My eyeballs deceived me greatly. 

[anotherman]

18 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Lot of 5-6" reports from over there. I must have just caught some of that heavier stuff overnight. I was shocked when I went out early this morning. I easily had 4" on my car. 

I had about 5 at my house before I left.

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 minute ago, Jns2183 said:

Actually ended up hitting just over 5". My daughter's school who confidently went with a two hour delay last night woke me up early with a message that they meant a two hour delay to the "flexible instructional day", they just forget to add "flexible instructional day" to the message last night.

It's absolutely beautiful outside. Still not much wind which is probably a very good thing with how caked.

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

It's also going to reslick a lot of surfaces when it comes down.

[WX-PA]

My old stomping grounds on Long Island is having an historic blizzard..26 inches in Islip and still snowing.

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Like that asshole deserves the attaboy.

He might have been right, but maybe for the wrong reasons. 

Just like last storm that "wasnt happening" as he touted (no 50/50 low i think was part of his blabberings for that one).  We did really well for that NON storm.

My biggest gripe is the chest puffin when some get it right when not owning up to when they were wrong.  We were really close to a biggie here.  Last minute (and expected by some of us - like models all too often due, was the rug puller for this chance.  IVT did its thing and gave many CTP'rs enough to not feel jipped.  

This storm happened-and is still happening.  We were on the edge and it shifted east enough for bust potential to be realized. 

Levittown 21" and still snowing.  

I'll take my 4" nws total and am ok w/ it, and not fret over what a model said could have been.  

 

 

[MAG5035]

20 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Lot of 5-6" reports from over there. I must have just caught some of that heavier stuff overnight. I was shocked when I went out early this morning. I easily had 4" on my car. 

There was also a corridor of heavier snow reports along the Franklin/Adams border that translated to that same band that’s produced a couple 6”+ reports east of State College and continued down thru northern MD. That 12.3” is a Cocorahs report.

[WmsptWx]

15 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

He made his call 2 days after I said the same amount.   

I would support your taking over the MU Twitter lol

[MAG5035]

31 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Like that asshole deserves the attaboy.

Speaking of egos, I wonder how DT’s doing today haha. 

On 2/19/2026 at 2:29 PM, mahantango#1 said:

From our good friend  DT:

NEXT TIME SOME IDIOT ARGUES THE GFS HANDLES EAST COAST SNOWSTORMS WELL...

 

       TIME TO CANCEL THE GFS..... 

 

    33 INCHES OF SNOW DC ? Yeah its broken

 

 every Single run of the operational GFS for the past 3 days has showed a massive historic record shattering blizzard for some portion of the Middle Atlantic...

 

 now even the GFS AI is saying "WTF op-GFS !? " 

 

The 6z and 12z GFS ensembles are waaaaaay east 

 

The problem is that the operational GFS goes Bonkers with the 500mb LOW. It is over developing the 500 LOW amplification and it grabs the surface LOW and pulls a NW to just east of Wallops Island on the lower Virginia Eastern shore. Then every run of op- GFS stalls the LOW for 24 hours producing this incredibly heavy snow area from a monster rapidly intensifying Coastal nor'easter.

 

This is nonsense.  

 

There is a better chance of monkeys flying out of my ass on Sunday night or Monday morning then this solution as proposed by the operational GFS of a massive historic BLIZZARD of record shattering proportions in the Mid-Atlantic actually concurring

 

As I stated in the video there is an upstream kicker and all the other models see it except for the operational GFS.  

 

When the GFS AI and GFS ensembles don't even support this kind of extreme solution then you know the operational GFS is just busted.

 

I figure it's about 12 hours before somebody starts blaming immigrants for fucking with the model.

I mean yea DC wasn’t the epicenter, but let’s not forget where the Euro was with the coastal aspect of this thing as recently as like Friday. 

[lazywxwatcher]

23 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Like that asshole deserves the attaboy.

Interesting you say that as he was pounding his chest a bit on X.  Don't know the guy, and he does deserve credit for being correct, but low-end is an easy default position.

If you always underforecast:

1.  Big snows are rare so you will frequently be correct

2. People are generally not upset if the storm overproduces, but the snow hounds are very upset if it underproduces

3.  If you say 2-4" and it winds up 5" hardly anyone notices and it is only 25% above your high-end.  A pleasant surprise, essentially, if you like snow, and a little bit more to clean up if you don't.  If it ends up 1" it is 50% lower than your low-end.  As a percentage game, it is way easier to win.

 

[lazywxwatcher]

12 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

I would support your taking over the MU Twitter lol

I second

[Blizzard of 93]

3.8 in Marysville for my yard.

Frustrating storm for sure, but at least most us still ended up with a solid Advisory level storm, but it could have been so much more with a few adjustments.

On to the next one!

This Thursday is looking like our next chance.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, WmsptWx said:

I would support your taking over the MU Twitter lol

I think there's a good chance that I'd communicate a little bit better professionally.  

Hey, I got lucky with my "forecast" but unfortunately, it's going to be my last one. And this is what I wanted to get off my chest last night - 

When significant winter storms are threatening our area, there's a group here at work that collaborate on how to handle adjusting operations schedules. I'm a part of it for 2 reasons; one, I'm in HR, and two, I'm looked at as the company's "weather authority" to some extent. This storm will be my last for providing my insight. Why?

It's become a pain. I was approached last Wednesday for early thoughts on the storm. I shared the same thing here at work that I shared here online. I gave probabilities that were intentionally vague being 4 days out. Then on Friday morning, I gave my "call" of 3-6". I was ridiculed. I was harassed. I was dare I say it, even threatened. Because, I was bombarded with snow maps. Snow map after snow map after snow map of every model from every Tom, Dick, (intentional use of that name) and Harry showing 13", 16", 20", 25" that were literally pushed in my face and told that I needed to change my call. I explained my thought, my reasoning as to why I thought they were all off. I said that yes, there would be those amounts, and yes, they would be close to our area, BUT I felt pretty good that it was going to slip east over the final 24 hours. They didn't want to hear it. (even though they came to me for my thoughts) 

I was hit up again on Saturday. Same thing, new day. Texts. Emails. More maps. Oh my, more maps. I'm not kidding, I was emailed and/or texted well over 70 snow maps on Friday and Saturday alone. I was asked once again about Sunday. I reiterated that Sunday during the day would be a non-issue. More flack. More hostility. Whatever. And you know what came next? Yesterday, I start getting texts. Emails. Calls. Why isn't it snowing? This is a bust. Is it even going to snow at all? I'm thinking "did you actually stop and listen to me at all?" And on and on it went.

Today, right now I'm sitting in my office at work. Alone. I am THE only one in the entire office building. Why? Despite the fact that every road was wet this morning, the decision was made to shut down. The decision was made on Friday. Here I am. Angry. Frustrated. Tired. And most of all, jaded. People today do not know how to act. They sure as hell don't listen. And it saddens me how people act. Hey, this storm was almost impossible to forecast...I mean really, like @pasnownut said...we were THAT close to something much bigger. And that's just it. If you forecast the weather today, you better have really thick skin because if you're wrong, your ass is grass. The amount of hatred and mocking online yesterday towards WGAL's storm team was sickening. This was probably one of the hardest events to predict ever. I had my reasons for my call but as I said...I still lucked out. At least mostly.  

One big problem today is snow maps. Everyone has access to them. I had someone hand me a print out of the GFS 12z on Friday afternoon. I asked her where she got it and she said she googled how to access snow maps online. And these people see these maps and it's assumed that they're accurate. And then I have to explain why I don't think they are. Whatever. Snow maps have their purpose and they're fun to look at but they ARE driving a wedge between the general public and people who forecast weather for a living. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. They can't win. MU's biggest weakness is conveying those truths in a professional way. He's arrogant to a fault. That's on him. But for the rest of the met world...I sincerely feel sorry for all of you. The public has way too much access to way too much (false) information and it is putting them in an impossible situation. 

I'm out. No more forecasts from me. Just not worth it. 

 

[CarlislePaWx]

Here in Carlisle I managed to pull off an additional 0.2" since midnight which brings my storm total to exactly 2.0".  My sister in northern NJ (Morris County) texted me an hour ago and said they were up to 17.5" and still snowing.  A weather friend in Bergen County (Paramus) said he was up to 13.5" and still snowing.  Heavy bands were still coming through.  Very windy also.  My low overnight was 30.0 degrees and it's now up to 34.9 degrees with some wind for the first time.  Snow starting to fall off the tree branches.  Had one exciting hour yesterday evening between 6:00 and 7:00 when 1.0" fell.  That's half of my storm total.  

[Itstrainingtime]

Just to clarify, I'm not "out" as in leaving here. I'm just tired of the hassle of being asked to make a forecast and then ridiculed for it because it isn't what they want to hear. 

I wanted to provide some context of why my forecast was so important to me. I'm sorry that I pushed it on all of you but I needed an outlet. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Here in Carlisle I managed to pull of an additional 0.2" since midnight which brings my storm total to exactly 2.0".  My sister in northern NJ (Morris County) texted me an hour ago and said they were up to 17.5" and still snowing.  A weather friend in Bergen County (Paramus) said he was up to 13.5" and still snowing.  Heavy bands were still coming through.  Very windy also.  My low overnight was 30.0 degrees and it's now up to 34.9 degrees with some wind for the first time.  Snow starting to fall off the tree branches.  Had one exciting hour yesterday evening between 6:00 and 7:00 when 1.0" fell.  That's half of my storm total.  

My cousin lives between Lewes and Georgetown in Sussex County DE. He sent me a measurement of 23.4" a while ago. No power and it's not expected back until Wednesday. The shore is shut down. They are going to try and get Coastal Highway open today but it's surreal right now in slower lower Delaware. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think there's a good chance that I'd communicate a little bit better professionally.  

Hey, I got lucky with my "forecast" but unfortunately, it's going to be my last one. And this is what I wanted to get off my chest last night - 

When significant winter storms are threatening our area, there's a group here at work that collaborate on how to handle adjusting operations schedules. I'm a part of it for 2 reasons; one, I'm in HR, and two, I'm looked at as the company's "weather authority" to some extent. This storm will be my last for providing my insight. Why?

It's become a pain. I was approached last Wednesday for early thoughts on the storm. I shared the same thing here at work that I shared here online. I gave probabilities that were intentionally vague being 4 days out. Then on Friday morning, I gave my "call" of 3-6". I was ridiculed. I was harassed. I was dare I say it, even threatened. Because, I was bombarded with snow maps. Snow map after snow map after snow map of every model from every Tom, Dick, (intentional use of that name) and Harry showing 13", 16", 20", 25" that were literally pushed in my face and told that I needed to change my call. I explained my thought, my reasoning as to why I thought they were all off. I said that yes, there would be those amounts, and yes, they would be close to our area, BUT I felt pretty good that it was going to slip east over the final 24 hours. They didn't want to hear it. (even though they came to me for my thoughts) 

I was hit up again on Saturday. Same thing, new day. Texts. Emails. More maps. Oh my, more maps. I'm not kidding, I was emailed and/or texted well over 70 snow maps on Friday and Saturday alone. I was asked once again about Sunday. I reiterated that Sunday during the day would be a non-issue. More flack. More hostility. Whatever. And you know what came next? Yesterday, I start getting texts. Emails. Calls. Why isn't it snowing? This is a bust. Is it even going to snow at all? I'm thinking "did you actually stop and listen to me at all?" And on and on it went.

Today, right now I'm sitting in my office at work. Alone. I am THE only one in the entire office building. Why? Despite the fact that every road was wet this morning, the decision was made to shut down. The decision was made on Friday. Here I am. Angry. Frustrated. Tired. And most of all, jaded. People today do not know how to act. They sure as hell don't listen. And it saddens me how people act. Hey, this storm was almost impossible to forecast...I mean really, like @pasnownut said...we were THAT close to something much bigger. And that's just it. If you forecast the weather today, you better have really thick skin because if you're wrong, your ass is grass. The amount of hatred and mocking online yesterday towards WGAL's storm team was sickening. This was probably one of the hardest events to predict ever. I had my reasons for my call but as I said...I still lucked out. At least mostly.  

One big problem today is snow maps. Everyone has access to them. I had someone hand me a print out of the GFS 12z on Friday afternoon. I asked her where she got it and she said she googled how to access snow maps online. And these people see these maps and it's assumed that they're accurate. And then I have to explain why I don't think they are. Whatever. Snow maps have their purpose and they're fun to look at but they ARE driving a wedge between the general public and people who forecast weather for a living. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. They can't win. MU's biggest weakness is conveying those truths in a professional way. He's arrogant to a fault. That's on him. But for the rest of the met world...I sincerely feel sorry for all of you. The public has way too much access to way too much (false) information and it is putting them in an impossible situation. 

I'm out. No more forecasts from me. Just not worth it. 

 

Hang in there mate.  I feel you.  Like you, I think many of us on this board are the defacto Mets for our family/friends and it can get exhausting trying to communicate nuance about weather with those who have no understanding of the basics, and like you said, have too much access to garbage maps and internet personalities.  We have some friends who are teachers here in Hempfield and a couple days ago I told them that regardless of what we got I'd be shocked if they had school on Monday.  Well guess what, Hempfield only has a two-hour delay, and that is the right call by the district, but those teacher friends are razzing me now.  It's all in fun and I let stuff roll off my shoulders, but it can get tiring and takes some of the joy out of the hobby.  People constantly texting "are we getting this much?  What about this map? blah blah blah".  I will say this though, which I've stated before, a number of pro Mets would be well-served to display a little humility in their forecasting.  We all know, as @Jns2183 has been proving lately, that this game is still mostly luck when forecasting down to the local level.  Way too much hubris out there in the weather world.  I digress.

[MickeyTim6533]

Who's ready for Friday?? LOL

 

[pasnownut]

41 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Speaking of egos, I wonder how DT’s doing today haha. 

I mean yea DC wasn’t the epicenter, but let’s not forget where the Euro was with the coastal aspect of this thing as recently as like Friday. 

Yeah, I dont follow DT but am wondering why its crickets as we always hear abt his 2/3/final calls.  lol  

[canderson]

29 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just to clarify, I'm not "out" as in leaving here. I'm just tired of the hassle of being asked to make a forecast and then ridiculed for it because it isn't what they want to hear. 

I wanted to provide some context of why my forecast was so important to me. I'm sorry that I pushed it on all of you but I needed an outlet. 

IMO no one should ever apologize for a forecast - ESPECIALLY hobbyists like us. 

Especially since you basically nailed this event better than mostly any pro out there. 

[canderson]

It’s snowing decently again. But it’s 34. 

[canderson]

The storm to our east - NJ/NYC/LI and up into SNE is historic. Record stuff. 

[pasnownut]

58 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I think there's a good chance that I'd communicate a little bit better professionally.  

Hey, I got lucky with my "forecast" but unfortunately, it's going to be my last one. And this is what I wanted to get off my chest last night - 

When significant winter storms are threatening our area, there's a group here at work that collaborate on how to handle adjusting operations schedules. I'm a part of it for 2 reasons; one, I'm in HR, and two, I'm looked at as the company's "weather authority" to some extent. This storm will be my last for providing my insight. Why?

It's become a pain. I was approached last Wednesday for early thoughts on the storm. I shared the same thing here at work that I shared here online. I gave probabilities that were intentionally vague being 4 days out. Then on Friday morning, I gave my "call" of 3-6". I was ridiculed. I was harassed. I was dare I say it, even threatened. Because, I was bombarded with snow maps. Snow map after snow map after snow map of every model from every Tom, Dick, (intentional use of that name) and Harry showing 13", 16", 20", 25" that were literally pushed in my face and told that I needed to change my call. I explained my thought, my reasoning as to why I thought they were all off. I said that yes, there would be those amounts, and yes, they would be close to our area, BUT I felt pretty good that it was going to slip east over the final 24 hours. They didn't want to hear it. (even though they came to me for my thoughts) 

I was hit up again on Saturday. Same thing, new day. Texts. Emails. More maps. Oh my, more maps. I'm not kidding, I was emailed and/or texted well over 70 snow maps on Friday and Saturday alone. I was asked once again about Sunday. I reiterated that Sunday during the day would be a non-issue. More flack. More hostility. Whatever. And you know what came next? Yesterday, I start getting texts. Emails. Calls. Why isn't it snowing? This is a bust. Is it even going to snow at all? I'm thinking "did you actually stop and listen to me at all?" And on and on it went.

Today, right now I'm sitting in my office at work. Alone. I am THE only one in the entire office building. Why? Despite the fact that every road was wet this morning, the decision was made to shut down. The decision was made on Friday. Here I am. Angry. Frustrated. Tired. And most of all, jaded. People today do not know how to act. They sure as hell don't listen. And it saddens me how people act. Hey, this storm was almost impossible to forecast...I mean really, like @pasnownut said...we were THAT close to something much bigger. And that's just it. If you forecast the weather today, you better have really thick skin because if you're wrong, your ass is grass. The amount of hatred and mocking online yesterday towards WGAL's storm team was sickening. This was probably one of the hardest events to predict ever. I had my reasons for my call but as I said...I still lucked out. At least mostly.  

One big problem today is snow maps. Everyone has access to them. I had someone hand me a print out of the GFS 12z on Friday afternoon. I asked her where she got it and she said she googled how to access snow maps online. And these people see these maps and it's assumed that they're accurate. And then I have to explain why I don't think they are. Whatever. Snow maps have their purpose and they're fun to look at but they ARE driving a wedge between the general public and people who forecast weather for a living. Damned if you do, damned if you don't. They can't win. MU's biggest weakness is conveying those truths in a professional way. He's arrogant to a fault. That's on him. But for the rest of the met world...I sincerely feel sorry for all of you. The public has way too much access to way too much (false) information and it is putting them in an impossible situation. 

I'm out. No more forecasts from me. Just not worth it. 

 

Sorry to hear bud.  You know your secrets are safe in here.  You are correct, its a lose lose proposition, and I like you am our weather guy here at work.  

I'm just gonna say it....social media and some technologies/access to too much info is possibly a bigger problem than ever, because the answer to anything in life....is a few buttons away.  Thats really dangerous.

BTW, nice call :).  Your call sat in my gut like a bad buritto, and while i didnt want to agree, i couldnt ignore it, as like you I've been around long enough to know climo and how the model tendencies etc often play out (and they did here).  I set my bar at 8-12" because I thought we in norlanco were close enough to the goods, that we'd not be robbed of coastal influence enough to miss out.  I knew on Saturday, that much of the day was looking like a waste, as thermals were marginal enough and w/o rates, we were screwed.  Mesos showed that starting saturday afternoon. 

I'd be just like you.  Sittin there by myself, to make your point, but they can pound sand movin forward (since you are in HR, you can find an eloquent way to say that...I'm in sales, so I'd not be so kind..). 

 

If they want to know the weather....I tell em all here at the office....."its up in the air"

[pasnownut]

40 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Just to clarify, I'm not "out" as in leaving here. I'm just tired of the hassle of being asked to make a forecast and then ridiculed for it because it isn't what they want to hear. 

I wanted to provide some context of why my forecast was so important to me. I'm sorry that I pushed it on all of you but I needed an outlet. 

atta boy.  

Now it can bring some of the fun back into snow for you, even if we are winding down. 

Looks like we have 7-10 days of winter left, then springs gonna spring IMO.  Ens guidance looking warm in east after first week of march. Tellies dont look horrid after first week of march, but as you know all too well....its takes a lot more anomalous looks to overcome spring starting to show up.  

[pasnownut]

19 minutes ago, canderson said:

IMO no one should ever apologize for a forecast - ESPECIALLY hobbyists like us. 

Especially since you basically nailed this event better than mostly any pro out there. 

well said.  

noone in here should be discouraged for sharing thoughts/feelings as long as they throw a modicum of reasoning behind it and dont troll with the "aint happening" crap.  They know who they are.  

A lot of the fun here is being able to throw our thoughts into events and not have to deal w/ public/work/etc.  

Lewes delaware 23.4" and still snowing.  oh so close.  Chesco at 10" and still snowing. 

[canderson]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

well said.  

noone in here should be discouraged for sharing thoughts/feelings as long as they throw a modicum of reasoning behind it and dont troll with the "aint happening" crap.  They know who they are.  

A lot of the fun here is being able to throw our thoughts into events and not have to deal w/ public/work/etc.  

Lewes delaware 23.4" and still snowing.  oh so close.  Chesco at 10" and still snowing. 

Providence RI might break its record from 1978!