Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Yardstickgozinya]

2 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

It is nice

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Beautiful buddy. I should also add that I took that measurement at the top with a foot kick so it's by no means official.

[WmsptWx]

7 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Lite snow at the moment. 

Great Taste, Less Filling.

[canderson]

15 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

@canderdon this is winter version and reverse uno for 6 week period over this summer when 6 seperate events left me with .47" of rain and you with 5". Each of those events I had less than .10" while you had .75 to .89. I can understand if it was a random one-off event but it was weird seeing a pattern like that in the summer

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Ha it really is 

I do have huge flakes falling here now 

[Yardstickgozinya]

10 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Great Taste, Less Filling.

Give me a break, dude.I'm f****** high as a kite lol.

[CarlislePaWx]

Shortly before 11:00pm here in Carlisle...there has been nothing but light snow for the past 3 hours, and amazingly my snow depth on the board has not increased for all 3 hours.  I'm still at 1.5" which is where I was back at 8:00pm.  Temperature was 32.4 during most of the time but did briefly drop to 32.2 during the past hour.  What is falling is simply being swallowed up by compaction.  I'll have a midnight ob when I'll clear my board and melt down what snow accumulated inside my gauge.

I'm not liking the "ammunition" that MU will walk away with when this storm is over.  UGHH

[anotherman]

The snow has been moderate for a while here. Probably about 2 or 2.5 inches.

[canderson]

1.5”. Last hour really picked up. 

[Jns2183]

I literally just saw two supped up kias try to race each on 11/15 north starting at the light at market street. Reffing the engines waiting for red light to turn green, take off flooring it and about 1.5 seconds later both lose control spinning into each, fiberglass kits shattering. Looks like they both lost side view mirror, parts of their bumper, a tail fan. Both got the hell out of there onto a side street pretty quickly. The ones muffler was dragging throwing off sparks.

That truly was the single stupidest thing I've seen in life. Literal on the same level as the guy who jumped in the ocean offg the booze party boat at night in thet Caribbean with numerous large sharks following

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[Blizzard of 93]

Come on heavier band… keep drifting south…just another 20 miles…you can do it!

(now I’m talking to the radar…lol…this storm really has got to me…)

[TheDreamTraveler]

Power was flickering on and off. Street lights went out for a few minutes. It's not even windy over here lol

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Very light snow of the barely-accumulating variety continues here with a temp of 30.  It could not be more boring but I am determined to make it to my midnight observation ha.  Carry on.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Very light snow of the barely-accumulating variety continues here with a temp of 30.  It could not be more boring but I am determined to make it to my midnight observation ha.  Carry on.

I'm heading to bed now. I'm writing a postmortem tomorrow at some point. I have some thoughts...

[anotherman]

I'm heading to bed now. I'm writing a postmortem tomorrow at some point. I have some thoughts...

Don’t we all….

[Jns2183]

Shortly before 11:00pm here in Carlisle...there has been nothing but light snow for the past 3 hours, and amazingly my snow depth on the board has not increased for all 3 hours.  I'm still at 1.5" which is where I was back at 8:00pm.  Temperature was 32.4 during most of the time but did briefly drop to 32.2 during the past hour.  What is falling is simply being swallowed up by compaction.  I'll have a midnight ob when I'll clear my board and melt down what snow accumulated inside my gauge.
I'm not liking the "ammunition" that MU will walk away with when this storm is over.  UGHH

Now now, his time will come. I implore you to dust off your records on the fabled 2010 winter. Look at those gradients, last second model moves, and unlikely target zone. I remember joking around in the message boards with everyone that the local Mets had achieved a feat I thought impossible. For each of the 3 big storms that year (December and 2 in February) they ended up being off by nearly factor of 2 in their predictions at the time first flakes fell. Basically they kept calling for 6-10" and we ended up with 15"-20". How do you think he would have handled those?

Every forecaster has bias, hell it's even good he knows what he is. I just can't get over the mental frame he has of trying working hard to increase his bias. Every bit of success he seems to embrace his bias publicly a bit more each day, like a gambler on a winning streak trying to talk shit to the dealer.

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[Blizzard of 93]

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light to moderate snow continues tonight as the
western edge of the precip shield from a strong coastal storm
impacts central PA.

Rain turned to snow across the lower Susq valley around 5 PM.
Since sunset, accumulation rates have been near 0.5"/hr in
some of the snow bands across portions of the Lower Susq Valley
and farther north towards Schuylkill Co. A secondary band in
central PA, located within an inverted trough, has been
producing snowfall at rates of 0.25-0.5"/hr.

Expect similar intensities through about 2-3 AM as easterly
isentropic ascent at midlevels is maximized. Still a medium
chance (40-70 pct) that 1"/hr rates push into far eastern
Lancaster County between midnight tonight and sunrise on Monday,
but by and large the heaviest snow bands will miss our CWA to
the east. Storm total snow (which includes snow that fell and
subsequently melted this AM) is expected to range from 4-8" from
Schuylkill Co south into Lancaster County and southeastern York
County, with locally higher amounts possible in northeast
Lancaster County and the higher terrain of Schuylkill County.
Totals of 3-8" still expected in the higher terrain of the
central ridge and valley region intersected by the north-south
oriented snow band in the inverted trough. Lower amounts at
lower elevations and on paved surfaces. Much of the accumulation
is over by sunrise Monday, with lighter snow continuing through
the morning in spots.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light to moderate snow continues tonight as the
western edge of the precip shield from a strong coastal storm
impacts central PA.

Rain turned to snow across the lower Susq valley around 5 PM.
Since sunset, accumulation rates have been near 0.5"/hr in
some of the snow bands across portions of the Lower Susq Valley
and farther north towards Schuylkill Co. A secondary band in
central PA, located within an inverted trough, has been
producing snowfall at rates of 0.25-0.5"/hr.

Expect similar intensities through about 2-3 AM as easterly
isentropic ascent at midlevels is maximized. Still a medium
chance (40-70 pct) that 1"/hr rates push into far eastern
Lancaster County between midnight tonight and sunrise on Monday,
but by and large the heaviest snow bands will miss our CWA to
the east. Storm total snow (which includes snow that fell and
subsequently melted this AM) is expected to range from 4-8" from
Schuylkill Co south into Lancaster County and southeastern York
County, with locally higher amounts possible in northeast
Lancaster County and the higher terrain of Schuylkill County.
Totals of 3-8" still expected in the higher terrain of the
central ridge and valley region intersected by the north-south
oriented snow band in the inverted trough. Lower amounts at
lower elevations and on paved surfaces. Much of the accumulation
is over by sunrise Monday, with lighter snow continuing through
the morning in spots.

 

CTP recently updated their discussion.

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

What's the elevation there

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By the time I got your message, I was on the way down. I cant figured out how to to check my elevation accurately unless i'm actually at the spot. I'll check it next time I'm there. According to Ai, 404 steigerwalt hollow is around 450' so if that's accurate, I was probably at around 500'.

[Blizzard of 93]

Moderate snow in Marysville continues at 11:45 pm.

Eyeballing about 2 inches.

It looks beautiful outside with snow clinging to everything.

[anotherman]

Message from my Dad (in Cape May):

All of our windows are covered with snow from the wind . Wind is now 38mph , gusts to 50 mph. Our cars are encased in snow . The power just went out but came back on again in 5 minutes. Hoping it stays on.

[Yardstickgozinya]

4" on the dot here fellas ,and steady snow.

 

 

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

NYC must be getting destroyed. This streamer I watch who's from NYC has lost his power twice now lol. I've seen him stream during snowstorms before and never had anything happen. Must be bad out there.

[MAG5035]

It’s been a much more powdery snow with this 2nd wave that made it back here a few hours ago. The streets and stuff have caved with temps now back to 28ºF but the rates just aren’t doing it here. I only have about 0.7” new in all that time. Combined with the initial snow that came through overnight last night into first thing Sun morning that brings me right around 2” total for the storm so far. 

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Come on heavier band… keep drifting south…just another 20 miles…you can do it!

(now I’m talking to the radar…lol…this storm really has got to me…)

I was driving around for a bit and yeah heavier snow in that band around harrisburg 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

12am Obs:  Temp remains constant at 30 with very light snow and .8" of additional snowfall, for a total of 2.4".  Yes, you read that correctly, even down here in the heart of Lancaster County, in what was supposed to be the best time period, I received less than an inch over the course of four hours.  This storm is a bust down here, no other way to put it.  Still, I will wake up in the morning and be happy to see white.  Tracking begins anew tomorrow ha.  Good night everyone.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

12am Obs:  Temp remains constant at 30 with very light snow and .8" of additional snowfall, for a total of 2.4".  Yes, you read that correctly, even down here in the heart of Lancaster County, in what was supposed to be the best time period, I received less than an inch over the course of four hours.  This storm is a bust down here, no other way to put it.  Still, I will wake up in the morning and be happy to see white.  Tracking begins anew tomorrow ha.  Good night everyone.

Good night & you should be able to add to your total in the morning with several more hours to go until the snow wraps up towards daybreak.

Tomorrow, we get back to tracking the next chapter of this Winter.

[Jns2183]

I was driving around for a bit and yeah heavier snow in that band around harrisburg 

I'm went over 4" close to midnight. Light to moderate snow here still. My prediction was 4". Maybe I can squeeze out a bit more. I'm guess I'll end up with 5"-6". Which the euro had been spitting out here for a number of days. Still not a lick of wind. That is surprising

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[Yardstickgozinya]

4 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm went over 4" close to midnight. Light to moderate snow here still. My prediction was 4". Maybe I can squeeze out a bit more. I'm guess I'll end up with 5"-6". Which the euro had been spitting out here for a number of days. Still not a lick of wind. That is surprising

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There was just a bright blue flash, the whole sky lit up, but no sound.I'm assuming it's a transformer and the sound got muffled from snow. But I have no idea I don't see any lightning detected even along the coast. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

16 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I'm went over 4" close to midnight. Light to moderate snow here still. My prediction was 4". Maybe I can squeeze out a bit more. I'm guess I'll end up with 5"-6". Which the euro had been spitting out here for a number of days. Still not a lick of wind. That is surprising

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Still doing pretty darn good out here. It was actually  less than 36 minutes . I realize that you're not down in New cumberland  anymore, but hopefully you can add some on too. 

[Jns2183]

Regardless snow will be gone by Tuesday probably. Certainly Wednesday. It gets to 50 by Saturday and Sunday. With next chance of snow Monday March 2nd. Realistically we have the next 21 days to add to total before we reach the point where a 6" snowfall is a 1 in 20 year event.

All told when looking at the statistics over the years and studies one is left with the hard truth that despite all data and computer power, over 80% of variance in yearly snow in the mid Atlantic and northeast is due to essentially luck, and it took an ungodly amount of data and computer power to even get it down to 80% since it's basically an exponential function. One can at least measure this luck. And over the past 5 years we have been as unlikely as we were lucky during the 2010's. The 1940s hold the title still for unluckiness but we are easily in line to beat them unless we spit out a couple 50" plus seasons out of the next 3 years. But just like other runs of luck and bad luck it won't last forever. Within the next 10 years we will almost certainly have a 60" plus season again which I will truly savor.

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[Jns2183]

Still doing pretty darn good out here. It was actually  less than 36 minutes . I realize that you're not down in New cumberland  anymore, but hopefully you can add some on too. 

I'm in Camp Hill. Not far at all. We got very lucky. That one nice band width was basically only from Mechanicsburg to city island.

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