Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Voyager]

We did have some moderate snow a little while ago, but I think the heavy band down near Allentown is putting us into a subsidence zone.

[canderson]

Pretty good snow rates now and I just hit 32. Everything has caved. Too bad it wasn’t 6 hours earlier. 

[Blizzard of 93]

8 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

That's remarkable, not sure we've ever had that kind of snow difference between us.  I was wondering though, looking at the radar earlier, if things were having trouble making it your way.  I have finally dropped below 32, to 31, but with the lightest snow of the event thus far.  Again, not loving the radar.

Snow has made it back west to @MAG5035 in Blair county. All of that precip will need to work its way back east through early tomorrow morning. We have several hours of snow to go. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The latest HRRR really wants to dry things up quickly and even has the bulk of Chester County now getting less than 6" post-7pm.  What a bust that would be out that way.  We've certainly seen worse but this is disheartening.

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The latest HRRR really wants to dry things up quickly and even has the bulk of Chester County now getting less than 6" post-7pm.  What a bust that would be out that way.  We've certainly seen worse but this is disheartening.

Seeing 8-10" reports from NJ - HRRR says they have over 2' to go on top of that.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Seeing 8-10" reports from NJ - HRRR says they have over 2' to go on top of that.

Yep, that's always been the bullseye.  Will have to check in on my Hammonton buddy soon.  Has to be pretty historic for them. 

[Ruin]

1 hour ago, HBGCPA10 said:

Nothing on the concrete sidewalks on streets yet. 35 degrees. I don't think they even pre-treated the roads.

yeah its not gonna lay on the sidewalks unless you get very heavy bands which it doesnt look like we are under light to maybe mod at times 

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Ruin said:

yeah its not gonna lay on the sidewalks unless you get very heavy bands which it doesnt look like we are under light to maybe mod at times 

My sidewalks in the city are 90% covered (everywhere but under a tree)

[Yardstickgozinya]

Steady snow. Bamboo was snapping all around me right now.  The pictures are the same place with and without the snow illuminated. 

[MAG5035]

Nice placement of the comma head on central/eastern PA. So far the coastal low is still pretty close to the Delmarva coastline and hasn’t started to fade east yet. 

[canderson]

It’s melting and barley even snowing but I’d guess .25” or so

Not gonna make it to 1” probably - big bust, but a very difficult system to forecast

[TheDreamTraveler]

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s melting and barley even snowing but I’d guess .25” or so

Not gonna make it to 1” probably - big bust, but a very difficult system to forecast

Starting to think the same. Barely anything has really accumulated on the pavement even though it's been snowing for a few hours over here in Enola. They're still calling 2-5 inches but I think it's going to be on the lower side too. Far cry from the 6-12 inches yesterday

[Ruin]

57 minutes ago, canderson said:

My sidewalks in the city are 90% covered (everywhere but under a tree)

sidewalks here are just soaked cars grass have a slushy wet 2 inchs maybe only spot on the road that has any coverage is where the giant ice/snow pile was for weeks that kept the temps on that part of the road cold enough 

[Storm Clouds]

What a complete fail of a storm honestly…I mean especially for Lancaster County. I think pretty much every model had a foot plus throughout the county and even eastern areas are struggling to get a few inches. Let this thing be over already.

[Blizzard of 93]

14 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s melting and barley even snowing but I’d guess .25” or so

Not gonna make it to 1” probably - big bust, but a very difficult system to forecast

It should snow all night…

See the  @MAG5035 post above. The storm is still sitting right along the DelMarVa coast.

[Yardstickgozinya]

I'm at the the top right now of the highest elevation that I that I can get to by foot.  There's a little bit of sideway action in the snow up here at times and I would say they're somewhere around 3.5"

[Yardstickgozinya]

Steady snow

[Jns2183]

What a complete fail of a storm honestly…I mean especially for Lancaster County. I think pretty much every model had a foot plus throughout the county and even eastern areas are struggling to get a few inches. Let this thing be over already.

That is why you never judge a model on 3rd dynamic effects, aka snowfall. If Philadelphia gets less than 7"-8" then I will say the models busted. No model had all all of Lancaster county with 12"+ along with a 40 mile buffer to account for model resolution noise, ever. The gradient spent the last few days living in Lancaster county on almost every run with some of the meso models not like the RRFS never showing anything above 5"-6" as a max for entire county from first run to last.

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[Mount Joy Snowman]

Very light snow here the last couple of hours, not much additional accumulation.  Even my neighborhood roads have barely a coating.  Temp has dropped to 30 so that's something ha.  I still plan on hanging until midnight.

[Blizzard of 93]

Moderate snow with decent flake size continues in Marysville. Eyeballing a little over an inch on the car tops & yard. Roads & sidewalks are covered, but a little less on them due to taking longer to cave.

[MAG5035]

27 minutes ago, canderson said:

It’s melting and barley even snowing but I’d guess .25” or so

Not gonna make it to 1” probably - big bust, but a very difficult system to forecast

This is one of those situations I wish there was a radar located somewhere in the middle of the Sus Valley to see the banding better, as there are clearly some haves and have nots when it comes to where there are more significant accumulating snow areas. 

511 cameras in and around the Harrisburg area look half decent though, showing some of the primary roads caving. 

[Jns2183]

These last two storms have completely sold me on the RRFS model. It's due to replace the nam, rap, hrrr, prep, SREF, the whole regional/local convective model combo along with ensemble. I just spent the last 2 hours processing some ad-hoc model skill verification metrics and reading a couple recently released studies on it. All that combined with its performance the last month all over (I constantly was checking it's performance around the nation). I'm now moving it to the place I once held the euro. Even at its range end of 84 hours I value it more than any other model.

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[Jns2183]

I somehow have 2.5" in camp hill. Everything is fully covered

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[Jns2183]

I'm at the the top right now of the highest elevation that I that I can get to by foot.  There's a little bit of sideway action in the snow up here at times and I would say they're somewhere around 3.5"

What's the elevation there

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[Yardstickgozinya]

3 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

What's the elevation there

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I'm not exactly sure I can tell you.It's not that high, but I'll check whenever I get home. I'm walking past the fairview township building here shortly.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Lite snow at the moment. 

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

I somehow have 2.5" in camp hill. Everything is fully covered

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I like the band on radar that looks to be working its way south along Rt. 15 in Snyder & northern Dauphin & Perry county. Hopefully that works its way soon into our area & the Harrisburg area.

[Jns2183]

@canderdon this is winter version and reverse uno for 6 week period over this summer when 6 seperate events left me with .47" of rain and you with 5". Each of those events I had less than .10" while you had .75 to .89. I can understand if it was a random one-off event but it was weird seeing a pattern like that in the summer

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[Jns2183]

I like the band on radar that looks to be working its way south along Rt. 15 in Snyder & northern Dauphin & Perry county. Hopefully that works its way soon into our area & the Harrisburg area.

It is nice

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[AccuChris]

Just measured 1.5” in Lebanon with light snow continuing. Temp is 30°


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