Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[canderson]

 Blizzard warning for NYC. Don’t get those very day.  

[Storm Clouds]

Mid Atlantic forum is drooling over the 12z NAM…keep coming west up until game time!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

NAM with another beautiful depiction.  The stuff dreams are made of.

[AccuChris]

Epic look


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[Superstorm]

Epic look


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Just beautiful!


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

NAM still pouring down snow all through Monday morning.

[Superstorm]

NAM still pouring down snow all through Monday morning.

NAM says 1 to 2 feet across county


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

NAM puts down 8" at MDT and 17" at LNS haha.

[AccuChris]

12z NAM kuchera


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[canderson]

11 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

NAM puts down 8" at MDT and 17" at LNS haha.

[Superstorm]

3K NAM is a beat down!


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[Porsche]

Chances of this happening??  Nice to look at, really wish the EURO was on board.

[anotherman]

Chances of this happening??  Nice to look at, really wish the EURO was on board.

NAM is in range…of course it’s still the NAM.

[Blizzard of 93]

Holy NAM!!!

It is in range & can’t be discounted!

LFG!

[Superstorm]

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[canderson]

Meanwhile it is gorgeous this am. Sunny and already 42. 

[paweather5]

[Itstrainingtime]

Best thing?

When the overnight run of the Euro caved, the majority of models have stuck their middle finger in the air right back at it.

Very happy that guidance is caving to it.

[ChescoWx]

A beautiful day across the area before a major snowstorm impacts some of our area starting tomorrow morning through Monday midday. With snow tomorrow we may end up having snow cover last through the entire month of February and a Top 10 all-time stretch. Snow chances begin to increase toward dawn tomorrow with the heaviest potential snow being tomorrow night into Monday morning. Temps will fall below freezing during the storm tomorrow and will not get too far from freezing both Monday and Tuesday. We see a warmup to near normal temperatures for late February with highs in the low to mid 40's by the end of the week.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

ICON stays fairly east, FWIW.

[Itstrainingtime]

Sounds like MillvilleWx screw zone is between 83 and 81 as of now.

[canderson]

3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Sounds like MillvilleWx screw zone is between 83 and 81 as of now.

Awesome (but what I expect here locally)

[Mount Joy Snowman]

I think the trepidation some of the more mainstream outlets have in throwing out big totals is twofold:

1.  The sharp cutoff with the coastal that we all see depicted across multiple models and has been discussed at length.

2.  That whatever falls from dawn until late afternoon tomorrow may have trouble accumulating efficiently.  If we have something like 1/4" per hour rates combined with surface temps a little above freezing it is going to be difficult to build much depth.  There could be a fair amount of wasted qpf, and then we're back to eying the coastal impact come evening time and everything that comes with that (see #1 above).

Just my two cents, but I think it's fair to do some hedging on some of the bigger totals we're seeing the models spit out.  And this is to say nothing of the fact that a slight eastward shift could still be in the cards.  Lots of uncertainty but that's what makes it all "fun", I think ha.

I'm setting the bar at 6" for KMJS and letting the chips fall where they may.

[Blizzard of 93]

No one knows where the good bands will set up tomorrow evening.

I’ve seen storms like this get @MAG5035 into the good snow totals when he was supposed be somewhat fringed.

There is often a second max area. Location TBD.

[Itstrainingtime]

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

I think the trepidation some of the more mainstream outlets have in throwing out big totals is twofold:

1.  The sharp cutoff with the coastal that we all see depicted across multiple models and has been discussed at length.

2.  That whatever falls from dawn until late afternoon tomorrow may have trouble accumulating efficiently.  If we have something like 1/4" per hour rates combined with surface temps a little above freezing it is going to be difficult to build much depth.  There could be a fair amount of wasted qpf, and then we're back to eying the coastal impact come evening time and everything that comes with that (see #1 above).

Just my two cents, but I think it's fair to do some hedging on some of the bigger totals we're seeing the models spit out.  And this is to say nothing of the fact that a slight eastward shift could still be in the cards.  Lots of uncertainty but that's what makes it all "fun", I think ha.

I'm setting the bar at 6" for KMJS and letting the chips fall where they may.

Reasonable my friend, reasonable.

Going off of the pattern, my climo and some weight to models, I'm sticking with my 3-6" idea from last evening. My boom beyond that has lowered significantly. I do agree with MU on the idea that the progressive nature will probably lead to a bit more offshore track. You mentioned my other concern...what if we don't have rates tomorrow and then largely miss the coastal?

My total goalposts are 2"-8" for my house with 3-6" the most likely outcome. That's not being negative, that's 60 years of storm, climate, pattern and instincts.

[Itstrainingtime]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No one knows where the good bands will set up tomorrow evening.

I’ve seen storms like this get @MAG5035 into the good snow totals when he was supposed be somewhat fringed.

There is often a second max area. Location TBD.

Agreed 

[AccuChris]

12z GFS appears a bit wonky with its precip depiction etc so I think this may be its first run being more of a dud. At this point, Im getting away from the fine details the globals try to show since we are less than 24 hours from go-time


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[Mount Joy Snowman]

The GFS is looking slightly to significantly east to me.  Aye.

[AccuChris]

12z GFS kuchera definitely restricted the banding and heavier precip amounts to the east of this forum. But it may just be noise now


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[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The GFS is looking slightly to significantly east to me.  Aye.

We lost a good bit of QPF.