Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Itstrainingtime]

41 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

If the storm tracks as close to the coast as the GFS depicts, banding will extend WELL back inland beyond what is currently being shown.

The LSV is in a good spot.

Where did the Boxing Say storm track?

I don't know, I'm genuinely curious. I had a WSW for 6-12" and got a dusting. My memory says it was pretty close to the coast off Delmarva.

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP has HBG 1-3” for this storm, which I personally think is probably right. Temps issues, warmer ground, etc make this a lot of rain that turns into white rain. 
 

Hope I’m wrong! @Itstrainingtime and I are kinda in the same page 

To be clear, I'm not thinking anything. I would call for 3-6" right now. I'm concerned but not to where I think it will fail.

[Blizzard of 93]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

CTP has HBG 1-3” for this storm, which I personally think is probably right. Temps issues, warmer ground, etc make this a lot of rain that turns into white rain. 
 

Hope I’m wrong! @Itstrainingtime and I are kinda in the same page 

Nope, nice try, lol!

They just haven’t updated their grids.

Winter Storm Watch includes Harrisburg…

Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service State College PA
140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

PAZ057>059-064>066-211145-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
Including the cities of Pottsville, Hershey, Harrisburg, York,
Lancaster, Lebanon, and Gettysburg
140 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 4 and
  6 inches possible.

* WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions
  could impact the Monday morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the
  track of this storm. Any westward shifts in the track may result
  in higher snowfall amounts.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Where did the Boxing Say storm track?

I don't know, I'm genuinely curious. I had a WSW for 6-12" and got a dusting. My memory says it was pretty close to the coast off Delmarva.

To be clear, I'm not thinking anything. I would call for 3-6" right now. I'm concerned but not to where I think it will fail.

Don’t you dare bring up Boxing Day on here sir, lol!

That storm took a convoluted track that went out & then up, putting the LSV on the edge. That storm was forecast Well out to sea & then crept back to life on Christmas Eve, but the LSV was on the fringe & it failed back here. That was a totally different scenario in my opinion.

[Superstorm]

A lot different storm in its evolution. Bad nightmares for us, but great memories for NYC area.


.

[Blizzard of 93]

Good uptick on precip on the 18z AI EPS as well.

[Blizzard of 93]

I think it a fantastic sign with the last round of posts this evening…

@canderson lowballing Harrisburg amounts & showing an incorrect Harrisburg forecast by CTP… Check!

@Itstrainingtime time getting nervous & full of trepidation… Check!

I say these things with love as long time posters… to me, it means it’s go time around here for a Winter Storm!

[paweather5]

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The HRRR paints a very solid picture, with a widespread 3-6" across our area by the end of its run at 7pm Sunday just as the coastal is ramping up.  Next 12 hours would be fun to view.  On to the NAM.

[GrandmasterB]

36 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I just got a closer look at the 18z EPS and am really happy to see how many tucked ensemble members are showing this run.

Total precip still looks good.

Still quite a bit of west leaning lows. Love it!

[WmsptWx]

14 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

Okay. You now have my attention.

[Itstrainingtime]

16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I think it a fantastic sign with the last round of posts this evening…

@canderson lowballing Harrisburg amounts & showing an incorrect Harrisburg forecast by CTP… Check!

@Itstrainingtime time getting nervous & full of trepidation… Check!

I say these things with love as long time posters… to me, it means it’s go time around here for a Winter Storm!

Nervous is a fair description. Hopeful is another. Also keep in mind that I was in Florida when our big storm hit in January.

I want this bad.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Nervous is a fair description. Hopeful is another. Also keep in mind that I was in Florida when our big storm hit in January.

I want this bad.

Hopefully we reel this one in!

I was just having fun with my last post to you & Canderson. We all have our posting tendencies & that is what makes this place great.

I am still in a little disbelief that the GFS lead the way on this one so far and has not wavered much for a few days.

I will be happy with a widespread 6 inches of snow with some lucky spots hitting double digits.

Let’s see where the final trends take us this weekend up until game time.

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Hopefully we reel this one in!

I was just having fun with my last post to you & Canderson. We all have our posting tendencies & that is what makes this place great.

I am still in a little disbelief that the GFS lead the way on this one so far and has not wavered much for a few days.

I will be happy with a widespread 6 inches of snow with some lucky spots hitting double digits.

Let’s see where the final trends take us this weekend up until game time.

I think that’s my trepidation- the gfs has blowwwwwwn for so long and if gets a coup… man alive. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

NAM looks phenomenal through 48. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

NAM looks phenomenal through 48. 

It really does. And it looks really close to something for the history books.

[paweather5]

9 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

NAM looks phenomenal through 48. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, paweather5 said:

Long duration…

Starts Sunday am & just ramps up & continues through overnight into early Monday.

Bring it!

[Blizzard of 93]

Still some wrap around ongoing early Monday afternoon!

[Porsche]

This can hurt LOL.  If I'm being honest, I'm afraid of the cutoff from Chester to Lancaster could be worse than it looks right now.(less snow), if things shift east tomorrow.  Just need those heavies to move west about 25 miles.  Everything looks great from Dover NE for a shellacking though.

[MAG5035]

Well that was one of the more absurd NAM-ing’s I’ve ever seen  over in Delaware/NJ/Philly/NYC. Wow.

[Superstorm]

Great run on NAM


.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

NAM would be historic for southcentral NJ.  I continue to believe my buddy in Hammonton is in the bullseye. 

[Blizzard of 93]

There is also usually a secondary jackpot outside of the main area depending on where the best bands set up. A low that’s deepening to that level will push some heavy bands well inland.

[Blizzard of 93]

Even if the NAM verified, I don’t think many of us would be too upset with a widespread 8 to 12 in the LSV.

[canderson]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Even if the NAM verified, I don’t think many of us would be too upset with a widespread 8 to 12 in the LSV.

If someone is, they should be kicked on the shins. (Unless they hate winter like @Voyager, they get an excuse) 

[AccuChris]

0z 3km NAM is obscene….and still going



.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, AccuChris said:

0z 3km NAM is obscene….and still going



.

Good heavens, the 3k NAM has the low down to 965 at the end of its run at 7 am on Monday.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The extreme cutoff many are worried about exemplified to the max on the FV3, with 20" in eastern Lancaster County and 5" in Etown.

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The extreme cutoff many are worried about exemplified to the max on the FV3, with 20" in eastern Lancaster County and 5" in Etown.

My handbook says that it’s a bad unreliable model, so we toss, lol!

[CarlislePaWx]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Good heavens, the 3k NAM has the low down to 965 at the end of its run at 7 am on Monday.

At my home in northern NJ (Morris County) way back in 1993, when the super storm passed within 15 miles of me, I recorded a pressure of 964 mb.  That's crazy.  The 964 mb was the lowest barometric pressure I have ever recorded anywhere in my life.