Itstrainingtime Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 8 minutes ago, Superstorm said: We take! Very sharp cutoff. . Sharp cutoff is right. Sub-warning total in Harrisburg with 20"+ in eastern Lanco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: That cut off is BRUTAL Yikes… I'm not sure I totally buy that, as there isnt a huge H parked above us to suppress wester qpf expansion, and yeah its a wound up beast, but I'd think a little better western qpf is possible as we close in. I'd not think huge bump, but maybe a couple inches more than currently modeled. also looks like norlun feature is not as big a deal, and its just more of a classic shellackin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 18z GEFS mean looks solid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AccuChris Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Latest 21z NBM looks great as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Is there any chance things move even more west yet before Sunday? I hate when a big dog comes and Philly to NYC steals the thunder and gets crushed while we're out here looking at gradients and lesser amounts. If we're going to get this, I want to be in the 20" plus area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
str8liner Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Voyager said: Is there any chance things move even more west yet before Sunday? I hate when a big dog comes and Philly to NYC steals the thunder and gets crushed while we're out here looking at gradients and lesser amounts. If we're going to get this, I want to be in the 20" plus area. I would just be happy where you are at lol. Where I live, I hope it moves far enough west you get sleet and ZR..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 13 minutes ago, str8liner said: I would just be happy where you are at lol. Where I live, I hope it moves far enough west you get sleet and ZR..... I'm greedy...lol In reality, I'm in the I don't want it, but if it has to happen, then I want the bullseye mindset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Euro starting to dress for the party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Alright boys, what's the skinny? Grandma came over to watch the kids and the wife and I went out for lunch and some drinks. Even played some backgammon at the bar haha. Anyone partake? I've been teaching my wife. Things still ticking west? I'm going to dial in for 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago It is crazy foggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, canderson said: It is crazy foggy Yes it got real foggy real quick, even before sundown. I assume a warm air advection fog moving over the cold wet ground and remains of the snowpack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 56 minutes ago, AccuChris said: Latest 21z NBM looks great as well . Wow! Let’s gooooooooo !!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Regular Euro and especially AI well west of their 12Z runs with coastal precip. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Also a bunch of EPS members more tucked like the GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 57 minutes ago, Voyager said: Is there any chance things move even more west yet before Sunday? I hate when a big dog comes and Philly to NYC steals the thunder and gets crushed while we're out here looking at gradients and lesser amounts. If we're going to get this, I want to be in the 20" plus area. I hope we all the the most accumulation possible...then we can all move on to Spring 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 30 minutes ago, canderson said: It is crazy foggy Whiteout fog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 17 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Regular Euro and especially AI well west of their 12Z runs with coastal precip. 15 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said: Also a bunch of EPS members more tucked like the GFS Man what a score this would be for the GFS. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago So I'm going to say this one time and one time only - I love the trends. It's always a special thing when we get those situations when models move towards a favorable outcome and not the other way around. I'm genuinely getting excited... To balance that though...I to this moment can't shake this nagging feeling of a last minute rug pull. Seen it happen a few times too many. You know, there was a discussion a couple hours ago regarding the sharp gradient. This is a hallmark for this pattern. And another hallmark is a sudden shift east at the very last minute. I follow a met that I respect a ton (NOT MU) and he said about an hour ago that he feels strongly that the gradient is going to end up even sharper than is what currently shown on guidance. I could see that playing out. I honestly don't know what to think or expect. Literally nothing good or bad would surprise me. I think I needed to say this for my own sake more than anything. Be prepared for something special, something heartbreaking or anything in-between. Don't discount that gradient. Moving on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago So I'm going to say this one time and one time only - I love the trends. It's always a special thing when we get those situations when models move towards a favorable outcome and not the other way around. I'm genuinely getting excited... To balance that though...I to this moment can't shake this nagging feeling of a last minute rug pull. Seen it happen a few times too many. You know, there was a discussion a couple hours ago regarding the sharp gradient. This is a hallmark for this pattern. And another hallmark is a sudden shift east at the very last minute. I follow a met that I respect a ton (NOT MU) and he said about an hour ago that he feels strongly that the gradient is going to end up even sharper than is what currently shown on guidance. I could see that playing out. I honestly don't know what to think or expect. Literally nothing good or bad would surprise me. I think I needed to say this for my own sake more than anything. Be prepared for something special, something heartbreaking or anything in-between. Don't discount that gradient. Moving on. Totally agree. My worries have been being caught in between the IVT and coastal. This could be a large area of subsidence.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: So I'm going to say this one time and one time only - I love the trends. It's always a special thing when we get those situations when models move towards a favorable outcome and not the other way around. I'm genuinely getting excited... To balance that though...I to this moment can't shake this nagging feeling of a last minute rug pull. Seen it happen a few times too many. You know, there was a discussion a couple hours ago regarding the sharp gradient. This is a hallmark for this pattern. And another hallmark is a sudden shift east at the very last minute. I follow a met that I respect a ton (NOT MU) and he said about an hour ago that he feels strongly that the gradient is going to end up even sharper than is what currently shown on guidance. I could see that playing out. I honestly don't know what to think or expect. Literally nothing good or bad would surprise me. I think I needed to say this for my own sake more than anything. Be prepared for something special, something heartbreaking or anything in-between. Don't discount that gradient. Moving on. It's a totally fair concern. I would add that mixing issues through the first part of the storm have showed up on a number of models. The surface temps are marginal and really don't crash until the coastal gets ramping, so the question becomes how much qpf do we lose on the front end to mix or an inability to efficiently accumulate on surfaces. All valid concerns. Bottom line, as you said, be prepared for anything. Isn't that what makes this all fun anyway? Cheers! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago EnjoySent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2/3Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Last 2Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago If the storm tracks as close to the coast as the GFS depicts, banding will extend WELL back inland beyond what is currently being shown. The LSV is in a good spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 55 minutes ago Share Posted 55 minutes ago If the storm tracks as close to the coast as the GFS depicts, banding will extend WELL back inland beyond what is currently being shown. The LSV is in a good spot.Hope your right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted 45 minutes ago Share Posted 45 minutes ago 9 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Hope your right Me too. See previous posts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 36 minutes ago Share Posted 36 minutes ago I just got a closer look at the 18z EPS and am really happy to see how many tucked ensemble members are showing this run. Total precip still looks good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 30 minutes ago Share Posted 30 minutes ago CTP has HBG 1-3” for this storm, which I personally think is probably right. Temps issues, warmer ground, etc make this a lot of rain that turns into white rain. Hope I’m wrong! @Itstrainingtime and I are kinda in the same page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 22 minutes ago Share Posted 22 minutes ago 0z HRRR with a much better depiction through the early part of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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