Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

6 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I’m not fully convinced GFS goes east based on its 18Z ensembles. We will find out shortly! 

Cant argue that, but I think you get my point that i was making.  It'd be the 8th wonder of the modern world if ALL guidance bows to the GFS.  Thats what i was gettin at. Like i said earlier today, NAM did it in 2016.  Maybe this is the GFS's turn to rule the roost for one. 

[AccuChris]

0z ICON much better than its 18z run. Still not “all the way” there but another model looking better


.

[GrandmasterB]

1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Cant argue that, but I think you get my point that i was making.  It'd be the 8th wonder of the modern world if ALL guidance bows to the GFS.  Thats what i was gettin at. Like i said earlier today, NAM did it in 2016.  Maybe this is the GFS's turn to rule the roost for one. 

Yeah, I got you. I’m just going full weenie mode to reel this storm in. You have logic and I’m going with wishcasting  I’m also like 6 beers deep

[GrandmasterB]

One thing annoying me in the MA thread is the “it’s only the IVT giving us snow.” They’re connected.  The strength and location of the coastal impacts the IVT. One works off the other. I don’t think we are relying 100% on the IVT and 0% coastal low influence.

 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

One thing annoying me in the MA thread is the “it’s only the IVT giving us snow.” They’re connected.  The strength and location of the coastal impacts the IVT. One works off the other. I don’t think we are relying 100% on the IVT and 0% coastal low influence.

 

Really only 1 person over there lol

[GrandmasterB]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Really only 1 person over there lol

Currently yes but PSUHoffman was pushing it earlier too. We really want both as far west as possible. 

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

Yeah, I got you. I’m just going full weenie mode to reel this storm in. You have logic and I’m going with wishcasting  I’m also like 6 beers deep

all part of the fun.  I'm not here to be right....just here for the fun.  I'm 1 beer and a couple cocktails in myself.  School night, but I'm sayin F'it and havin a little fun.  Cheers

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

One thing annoying me in the MA thread is the “it’s only the IVT giving us snow.” They’re connected.  The strength and location of the coastal impacts the IVT. One works off the other. I don’t think we are relying 100% on the IVT and 0% coastal low influence.

 

agreed.  norlun is just a part of this potential event.  I can see why folks are rooting it on, cause shit gets serious if one is sittin under that deathband. Otherwise its light/mod snow and a few inches at best (unless GFS steals the crown for the next couple days.  Then we are synoptically pummeled.

[pasnownut]

15 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

One thing annoying me in the MA thread is the “it’s only the IVT giving us snow.” They’re connected.  The strength and location of the coastal impacts the IVT. One works off the other. I don’t think we are relying 100% on the IVT and 0% coastal low influence.

 

BTW, lots of "things" annoy me in that thread.  Has been largely unbearable in last few year, and why I gave up postin there. Wasnt horrible when i peeked earlier today.

[pasnownut]

as already stated, ICON takes a pretty substantial move twds the new King.

I'll be dipped in dogshit. 

[pasnownut]

RGEM coming around twds GFS as well.

someone pinch me.  

[AccuChris]

0z GFS stays the course


.

[GrandmasterB]

GFS not letting up

[Blizzard of 93]

Another beautiful GFS run.

[GrandmasterB]

From NE forum “GEFS west at 78”. That’s wild considering what I posted earlier. 

[GrandmasterB]

Just sit back and enjoy the chaos at this point! 

[canderson]

Tonight’s rain absolutely fell apart - pretty big forecast bust

[canderson]

Mid to upper 30s in daylight it looks like Sunday. Just something I can’t not consider when seeing GFS output. 

2-5” seems most likely to me.  

[Itstrainingtime]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Mid to upper 30s in daylight it looks like Sunday. Just something I can’t not consider when seeing GFS output. 

2-5” seems most likely to me.  

If we get into any kind of significant rates the temp will fall. 

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

Mid to upper 30s in daylight it looks like Sunday. Just something I can’t not consider when seeing GFS output. 

2-5” seems most likely to me.  

Way too soon for numbers.

It will all come down to banding & rates.

[Blizzard of 93]

[Blizzard of 93]

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Thanks to @Newman for showing the improvement on the 0z GEFS over its 18z run.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GEFS snow

[Yardstickgozinya]

There's still a pretty decent amount of convection and lightning for this hour, that looks like it will  make it into West Central Pa.  at the very least.

[Voyager]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Way too soon for numbers.

It will all come down to banding & rates.

Not according to CTP. They put out first numbers in my point and click...

Sunday

Snow showers. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

[Jns2183]

I fell in love with this company city charts so I treated myself to a one month subscription. Enjoy the granular detail. Especially the ensemble ones.

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[Jns2183]

Forgot one

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[Voyager]

30 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Not according to CTP. They put out first numbers in my point and click...

Sunday

Snow showers. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

And then the 6z NAM totally shuts out the eastern half of PA. No snow, no precipitation. Absolutely nothing north of the M/D line.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

And then the 6z NAM totally shuts out the eastern half of PA. No snow, no precipitation. Absolutely northing north of the M/D line.

Nam was further west but it couldn't climb 

[Jns2183]

Not according to CTP. They put out first numbers in my point and click...
Sunday
Snow showers. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Haha we have less than an inch forecast. Im not really going to worry about forcast amounts till Saturday evening, which is the earliest I expect accurate forecasts for this seductive teaser storm. I'm much more enamoured and enjoying the variance show the weather models are putting on. It really started to get boring a couple years ago when it seemed like everything was locked in with storms before they even got in NAM range. This hobby is alot more enjoyable when the possibility of monumental busts within the final 48 hours have a bit of credibility. I'll take a couple times of having the rugged pulled out from under me the last second for just a chance to experience the magic of going to bed expecting an inch and waking up at dawn to 6", thunder and a white out and seeing the shell shocked local weather men like the one experience I had as a kid.

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