Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Blizzard of 93]

12z Euro coming in slightly better for snow & precip in the LSV over its previous run.

Maps coming soon.

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

12z Euro coming in slightly better for snow & precip in the LSV over its previous run.

Maps coming soon.

 

[Blizzard of 93]

12z Euro precip improved for the LSV at 12z vs. 6z.

[Voyager]

Exceeded the forecast high for today. Currently 46 here (41), but we seem to have exceeded the wind, as well.

[Blizzard of 93]

51 on my home Marysville station.

Felt great to go out without a coat!

[CarlislePaWx]

Here in Carlisle just after 1:00pm, the skies are mostly sunny and the temperature has risen to a balmy 48.7 degrees.  The last time the temperature was at or above this was on January 13th with a high temp of 50.2 degrees.  So, we managed to stay below 50 degrees for an entire month.  My snowpack continues to fight off the warmth and is still at 3" solidly everywhere.  This is just about a 50% decrease from the Jan 25th storm.  That 1" of sleet I had at the end of the storm has helped to put on the retention fight.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

56 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

It's actually 2/10s of a mile south of me.

Haha I was actually going to chime in to say the same, that you are probably juuuust outside of the blue dot. 

[Blizzard of 93]

5 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Haha I was actually going to chime in to say the same, that you are probably juuuust outside of the blue dot. 

Lol, .49 for ITT!

[Itstrainingtime]

33 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

51 on my home Marysville station.

Felt great to go out without a coat!

Today your first day this week without one?

[Blizzard of 93]

I do like seeing the healthy looking established precip shield already covering most of Missouri & extending the whole way down to the Texas Gulf coast.
The ingredients are there for us to over perform if we get the rates in southern PA tomorrow evening.

[Itstrainingtime]

23 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I do like seeing the healthy looking established precip shield already covering most of Missouri & extending the whole way down to the Texas Gulf coast.
The ingredients are there for us to over perform if we get the rates in southern PA tomorrow evening.

My apologies! I intended to like your post and just realized that I did not. Sorry about that!!!

[canderson]

Car reads 51 at LL Bean in Mechanicsburg. It’s like Christmas Eve out today with traffic. 

[Itstrainingtime]

15 minutes ago, canderson said:

Car reads 51 at Lal Bean in Mechanicsburg. It’s like Christmas Eve out today. 

52.2 here. Feels like 65. As much as I love cold weather, today is a stellar day.

[canderson]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

52.2 here. Feels like 65. As much as I love cold weather, today is a stellar day.

Short sleeve weather - next week looks even warmer possibly 

[Ruin]

up to 50 forecast 41? yeah how can it be this inaccurate lol 

 

 

 

[Ruin]

[canderson]

CTP now has Harrisburg with snow accumulation Sunday evening - less than .5” current forecast. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

At 18z the HRRR still isn't on board and the NAMs now keep things mostly all rain.  Guess we'll find out tomorrow ha.

[pawatch]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Lol, .49 for ITT!

52 degrees here today. Was outside with just long sleeve shirt.
Snow is melting but looks to be soaking into the ground ,don’t see any runoff.

[Blizzard of 93]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

At 18z the HRRR still isn't on board and the NAMs now keep things mostly all rain.  Guess we'll find out tomorrow ha.

18z just cut back as well. About .20 less precip for the LSV, so snow amounts are now less than 2 inches for most of us this run.

[Blizzard of 93]

I am so ready to be done tracking this system!

2 weeks ago, many of us started watching this weekend period. It went from potential major storm to no storm to late yesterday looking like a potential recovery to an Advisory event to now who the bleep knows!

 

[Blizzard of 93]

Under 48 hours, nine times out of 10, once a trend starts, it usually either builds momentum or levels out. These continual all of the place rug pulls are brutal with this potential event.

[Blizzard of 93]

I mean, just look at thIs from @Newman in the Philly thread.

Just a tiny difference between 12z and 18z RRFS. Something must've gotten into the NOAA mesoscale products at 12z LOL

[MAG5035]

17 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Please understand, I wasn't being critical of you in any way. I don't do that. It was just ironic that the GFS jumped on to something it largely wanted no part of even when the Euro did.

No worries, I didn’t at all take it as any kind of criticism. I did think it was funny that I pretty much gave this storm 2-3 days up to the 48-60hr range for it to come back north and then of course it does right after I made my “it’s probably not happening” post. 

So now a period of steadier precip happening with this looks fairly likely, certainly from the turnpike south but perhaps as expansive as from I-80 south. Big issue now that’s happening with guidance overall is suggesting the lower column might not be cold enough. GFS has obviously been the coldest solution in that regard, but high res NAM, HRRR, Euro to a degree present that this might start as rain and possibly remain so for a majority of the event. While surface temps probably won’t be as warm as today (likely more high 30s to low 40s), there’s depth to the low level warmth in the column all the way up to about 850mb. 925mb (3000 ft) temps are progged as much as +5-6ºC prior to precip onset on most guidance. That makes a rain start pretty likely. Colder sub 0ºC air at that level eventually tries to advect in from the NE as the storm deepens as it gets off the coast. GFS does it the fastest, hence its snowier solution. Euro draws it in late, which leads to measurable snows more in eastern PA. High res guidance like the 3k NAM isn’t drawing it down in time.