Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[mahantango#1]

Just now, paweather5 said:

Just need it to be right this one time. 

Let's do this!

[MickeyTim6533]

Just now, mahantango#1 said:

Let's do this!

euro AI is a dud

[Blizzard of 93]

29 minutes ago, anotherman said:

GFS doing GFS things.  Fun to look at but I'm pretty sure it's all by itself.

Likely way overdone to say the least this run, but the 6z GFS had the general idea of a low tracking towards Ohio & then forming a secondary in response to the blocking in the Northeast. The good recent off & on runs the last few days of the Euro  & the AI models had this same general idea. The 6z GFS just gets the coastal going a little earlier & then rapidly strengthens it, producing a historic result, that is of course unlikely.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z AI GFS actually keeps the low mostly to our south this run in response to the blocking.

[Blizzard of 93]

Bottom line is that Next weekend is still a period of interest that needs monitored for a possible Winter storm chance.

[pawatch]

20 hours ago, pasnownut said:

actually something that i think is a valid point to consider, as it makes sense a sheltered location vs one sitting in wide open would likely show notable diff.  I'm guessing our weenies know this and put them in areas less affected by direct/indirect sun. 

I have 2 outside thermometers. One is sheltered in the open, the other sits out in direct sunlight. Right now they are reading the same, but usually 2-3 degrees difference.

currently 21 degrees…is this a reset?

[anotherman]

32 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Bottom line is that Next weekend is still a period of interest that needs monitored for a possible Winter storm chance.

Agree.  Ensembles all agree that there is potential.  We'll see.

[mahantango#1]

Sounds like this upcoming clipper means business on Friday. Euro has highs on Saturday in the single digit's, GFS mid teens.

[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

This doesn't even feel like jacket weather. Yesterday afternoon wearing anything but a heavy sweatshirt felt like overkill

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

yeah I thought the same.  My wife even agreed.  20's are the new 40's....lol

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, anotherman said:

GFS doing GFS things.  Fun to look at but I'm pretty sure it's all by itself.

6z GFS started the day w/ screwdrivers for breakfast drink....cause man o man it was gettin after it...winter wise. 

[pasnownut]

55 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Bottom line is that Next weekend is still a period of interest that needs monitored for a possible Winter storm chance.

and the bottom line is that until next tue/wed, we are in less deep, but still deep winter.  What a fantastic stretch this has been.  

My wood supply is getting hammered tho.  Gonna be a busy spring replenishing supply.  All good, love the exercise and playin w/ my chainsaws. 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Bottom line is that Next weekend is still a period of interest that needs monitored for a possible Winter storm chance.

Sure would be nice to get an old fashioned major storm that favors N. Central MD on north and east with an all snow event. Since I bought this place in fall 2019, the largest all snow event was the 6.5"+/- last January. Last month, 12/20 and 2/1/21 storms were the largest combined snow and ice events with around 10"+. When I lived in MD, the posters in Hanover routinely got rocked with large, all snow events. Not so since I've been here. Starting to think it's me. 

But I agree with you Blizz, this one has a shot to be a decent, if not bigger than anything I've had in Hanover imho. At least at this point that's the way it looks.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

euro AI is a dud

If you want snow as badly as what you've stated in this forum, why not look for positives to latch on to? It seems like you ONLY point out models that miss. I can't imagine that makes you feel good. Thing is, I'm both positive but also a realist. I will never hold on to "false hope" when I feel like it's not warranted. And sometimes I think I'm seen as a negative person when really, after years and years of going through disappointment and heartache when I latched on to something that ultimately failed, I've learned from that and am much more grounded today. But geez, there's enough out there to warrant some sort of hope that next weekend might produce some form of wintry weather. That's all we know right now. It's far from "likely" at this point and my outlook reflects that. But it's also not healthy to just pick and choose worst outcomes and piss on my cheerios every time you find it. Man, look for something positive for once. 

[Itstrainingtime]

2 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Huge bust in the low forecast here as my temp never went below 27. Clouds were supposed to clear out during the predawn hours and just never did. 

Yep, my low was a solid 15 degrees above forecast.

My forecast high for today was 28, currently it's 32 at 9:25am. 

[ChescoWx]

Several of our climate stations that did not see temperatures above freezing continue to be on track to set a record streak of days below freezing (day #12 today) which would be day #17 on Monday the 9th. The next 2 days look to be our relative mildest with highs in the upper 20's to near 30. An arctic front arrives on Friday which may kick off snow squalls and snow showers that may result in some minor accumulations by Saturday morning. Behind the front the weekend looks frigid once again. We may again have a chance to see temperatures near or above freezing by next Tuesday. In looking ahead, we can't really see any meaningful breaks from what our to date significantly colder than normal winter. Plus, snow chances look to increase toward the Valentines/Presidents day weekend.

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, pawatch said:

I have 2 outside thermometers. One is sheltered in the open, the other sits out in direct sunlight. Right now they are reading the same, but usually 2-3 degrees difference.

currently 21 degrees…is this a reset?

Like Mt Joy suggested yesterday, it makes sense that some wunderground reporting stations might have skewed temps w/in their network of weatherweenies.  Really doesnt matter much to me.  I was glad to see my car temp was matching NWS, so I'll consider my rather mobile reporting station calibrated....lol

[pasnownut]

33 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yep, my low was a solid 15 degrees above forecast.

My forecast high for today was 28, currently it's 32 at 9:25am. 

You might wanna check that station pal.

Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport (KMDT)

Lat: 40.19°NLon: 76.76°WElev: 312ft.

A Few Clouds

28°F

-2°C

Humidity	53%
Wind Speed	N 12 mph
Barometer	30.25 in (1025.0 mb)
Dewpoint	13°F (-11°C)
Visibility	10.00 mi
Wind Chill	18°F (-8°C)
Last update	4 Feb 8:56 am EST

More Information:

Local Forecast OfficeMore Local Wx3 Day HistoryHourly Weather Forecast

Extended Forecast for

Elizabethtown PA

[pawatch]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

You might wanna check that station pal.

Harrisburg, Harrisburg International Airport (KMDT)

Lat: 40.19°NLon: 76.76°WElev: 312ft.

A Few Clouds

28°F

-2°C

Humidity	53%
Wind Speed	N 12 mph
Barometer	30.25 in (1025.0 mb)
Dewpoint	13°F (-11°C)
Visibility	10.00 mi
Wind Chill	18°F (-8°C)
Last update	4 Feb 8:56 am EST

More Information:

Local Forecast OfficeMore Local Wx3 Day HistoryHourly Weather Forecast

Extended Forecast for

Elizabethtown PA

My problem going off the NWS for Williamsport is the temperature reading is taken at the Montourville Airport. That about 8 miles away from my location. Temperature and weather often differs.