Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

11 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I just drove to work and wow....if you didn't know it, you might think the storm had just ended.  The combination of all the sleet with the extreme cold has really locked everything into place.

Yeah, while we missed the big accums, the density from the sleet and little bit of zr has made our lesser snowpack rather dense.  Aint goin nowhere for a good while. 

[MAG5035]

13 minutes ago, anotherman said:

I just drove to work and wow....if you didn't know it, you might think the storm had just ended.  The combination of all the sleet with the extreme cold has really locked everything into place.

At least we didn’t see this kind of crazy sleet. 

https://www.wboy.com/pendleton/watch-crews-use-excavators-to-clear-sleet-slides-in-west-virginia-mountains/

Pendleton County, WV

 

[Jns2183]

This is from the CIPS website...kinda fun to peruse... https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php

That's the surprise storm I was talking about. I wish I could find the forecast the night before up here. Im sure it was similar or worse than DC forecast of "Gusty snow showers, maybe an inch" where instead they woke up to 6" of snow in near blizzard conditions. I can't even imagine the shit storm if that happened today.

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[CarlislePaWx]

Here in Carlisle, earlier this morning I dropped to a low of 7.0 degrees.  This is the second consecutive night that NWS temps have been noticeably off.  Yesterday morning the forecast low was for +2 degrees, and I only dropped to 8.8 degrees, creating a departure of 6.8 degrees.  This morning the forecast was also for +2 degrees, creating a departure of 5.0 degrees.  I think there had to be a level of wind during most of the night that put the kabosh on radiational cooling.  Tonight they have forecast a low of +3 degrees with winds becoming calm much earlier in the night.  So, perhaps tonight will be the night?  We'll see...

[pasnownut]

Here we go boys n girls.  Lets hope today is better than last night.

RGEM coming in a little more tucked from 6z.  Not gonna extrapolate, but not gonna say i hate the look. 

challenge is right where it is, is where it meets "the wall".  Hoping today offers a bit more clarity to the exit stage right dilemna.

Might not be till tomorrow though.

 

[pasnownut]

not diggin nooners.  No fork out yet, but cold press seems to overwhelm the east, and keeps this deal too far east.

VA/NC beaches approve. 

 

[pasnownut]

trough axis too far east.  Thats why I was hoping for NS to dive in hard and capture.  IMO that coulda gave us a chance as this coulda had more neg tilt.  

[canderson]

28 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

trough axis too far east.  Thats why I was hoping for NS to dive in hard and capture.  IMO that coulda gave us a chance as this coulda had more neg tilt.  

Seems too complicated for it’s usual N movement that’d help us. 

[GrandmasterB]

I agree we are running out of time, but I’m not quite out on this threat yet when the GFS ensembles look like this. Check out number 5. Close enough to keep the thrill of “the track” alive!

[pasnownut]

47 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

trough axis too far east.  Thats why I was hoping for NS to dive in hard and capture.  IMO that coulda gave us a chance as this coulda had more neg tilt.  

and just like that.....CMC tries to pull off my wish. 

Notably more neg tilt, but still a whiff.  Now IF that could be the start of the normal north trend, I'd not write this one off.  Lots stacked against right now.  

[pasnownut]

14 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I agree we are running out of time, but I’m not quite out on this threat yet when the GFS ensembles look like this. Check out number 5. Close enough to keep the thrill of “the track” alive!

Yeah I'd say it silly to write off most anything at 4 days out.  CMC kept hope alive.  Tomorrow at this time is when I'd start lookin for the next one.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

23 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yeah I'd say it silly to write off most anything at 4 days out.  CMC kept hope alive.  Tomorrow at this time is when I'd start lookin for the next one.  

Yeah even with the odds greatly against us for this one I'm not fully writing off anything south these days until we get inside of 72 hours, perhaps 60 ha.

[canderson]

Euro OTS. Fat lady is warming up. 

[MickeyTim6533]

7 minutes ago, canderson said:

Euro OTS. Fat lady is warming up. 

[NepaJames8602]

I'm all for being positive, and we should keep a watchful eye given how horrible these models have been. However, with that said.... I think this one is a goner lol. Sometimes you flush, some times ya bust... We will have plenty of opportunties ahead. We have a great snow pack, and a great long lasting cold pattern here. Something else interesting will pop soon! This is the first time in many seasons, avg snowfall or above looks to be easily within reach for many. We still have Feb and March for plenty of chances. This turned into a great winter and im very pleased.

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, NepaJames8602 said:

I'm all for being positive, and we should keep a watchful eye given how horrible these models have been. However, with that said.... I think this one is a goner lol. Sometimes you flush, some times ya bust... We will have plenty of opportunties ahead. We have a great snow pack, and a great long lasting cold pattern here. Something else interesting will pop soon! This is the first time in many seasons, avg snowfall or above looks to be easily within reach for many. We still have Feb and March for plenty of chances. This turned into a great winter and im very pleased.

The GFS went from 42” snow in S MD to zero in 3 model runs. It needs to be shot in its head. 

[NepaJames8602]

11 minutes ago, canderson said:

The GFS went from 42” snow in S MD to zero in 3 model runs. It needs to be shot in its head. 

Gotta love the goofus lol.

[Jns2183]

The GFS went from 42” snow in S MD to zero in 3 model runs. It needs to be shot in its head. 

I would say to trust any deterministic model in this setup is folly. Ensembles until 48 hours out.

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[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

I would say to trust any deterministic model in this setup is folly. Ensembles until 48 hours out.

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my rule for a long time, ens guidance with op till short term mesos come into range then slowly pass the weather baton off.  

[canderson]

We won’t get snow with a damn but we get 50 mph winds Sunday and Monday.  Joy. 

[MAG5035]

The only thing really keeping me into this threat to any degree is the 500mb ridge axis in great positioning for C-PA. Otherwise it just looks like the trough is going to swing negative too late and system stays relatively progressive. 

10 hours ago, Caveman said:

This is from the CIPS website...kinda fun to peruse... https://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/analog.php

Looked a little bit further into the CIPS analog stuff and off GFS guidance one of the top analogs for the Northeast/East Coast domain that come up is the Boxing Day 2010 storm, which I think is most the representative analog vs forecast setup of a top 5 that consisted of Jan 2016 and even Jan 1996. That’s why the 90th percentile is off the hook on that analysis. Statistically, those accumulations represent amounts that are higher than 90%+ of the dataset.. the highest outliers in other words. Having those big hitters in the mix also skews the mean as well. 

Here’s the median snowfall, which indicates a lot of these analogs didn’t produce much of anything.

 

Here’s the mean 500mb vs GFS

The mean western ridge axis on the analogs is actually a tad east of what the GFS has, and it’s definitely west of the alignment for the Boxing Day 2010 storm. That storm actually tracked up from the Carolina coast and inside of the benchmark while the general consensus of guidance right now is to take the surface low up from Hatteras outside (southeast) of the benchmark. So I think this certainly has room to trend snowfall back our direction, but I’m fairly doubtful it’ll be enough for C-PA due to the reasons mentioned at the top of the post. The storm gets going too late. 

[pasnownut]

13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The only thing really keeping me into this threat to any degree is the 500mb ridge axis in great positioning for C-PA. Otherwise it just looks like the trough is going to swing negative too late and system stays relatively progressive. 

Looked a little bit further into the CIPS analog stuff and off GFS guidance one of the top analogs for the Northeast/East Coast domain that come up is the Boxing Day 2010 storm, which I think is most the representative analog vs forecast setup of a top 5 that consisted of Jan 2016 and even Jan 1996. That’s why the 90th percentile is off the hook on that analysis. Statistically, those accumulations represent amounts that are higher than 90%+ of the dataset.. the highest outliers in other words. Having those big hitters in the mix also skews the mean as well. 

Here’s the median snowfall, which indicates a lot of these analogs didn’t produce much of anything.

 

Here’s the mean 500mb vs GFS

The mean western ridge axis on the analogs is actually a tad east of what the GFS has, and it’s definitely west of the alignment for the Boxing Day 2010 storm. That storm actually tracked up from the Carolina coast and inside of the benchmark while the general consensus of guidance right now is to take the surface low up from Hatteras outside (southeast) of the benchmark. So I think this certainly has room to trend snowfall back our direction, but I’m fairly doubtful it’ll be enough for C-PA due to the reasons mentioned at the top of the post. The storm gets going too late. 

500 looks awesome and if we didnt know what weve been seeing, and saw it, "bombs away" comes to mind. 

Some have asked why it gets up to VA coast and then heads ENE?  IMO its because its not a clean capture, and NS while diving in, is a bit late? and shunting SLP too far east instead.  cold press also steering it offshore (again because of poor interaction w/ NS/SS.  Do you agree or can you suggest what you think is mucking it up?

[pasnownut]

HH GFS hit the sauce too early n shat the bed.

Uugghhh.

[Jns2183]

HH GFS hit the sauce too early n shat the bed.
Uugghhh.

I'll take that 6" clipper system next and be thrilled

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[Caveman]

1 hour ago, MAG5035 said:

The only thing really keeping me into this threat to any degree is the 500mb ridge axis in great positioning for C-PA. Otherwise it just looks like the trough is going to swing negative too late and system stays relatively progressive. 

Looked a little bit further into the CIPS analog stuff and off GFS guidance one of the top analogs for the Northeast/East Coast domain that come up is the Boxing Day 2010 storm, which I think is most the representative analog vs forecast setup of a top 5 that consisted of Jan 2016 and even Jan 1996. That’s why the 90th percentile is off the hook on that analysis. Statistically, those accumulations represent amounts that are higher than 90%+ of the dataset.. the highest outliers in other words. Having those big hitters in the mix also skews the mean as well. 

Here’s the median snowfall, which indicates a lot of these analogs didn’t produce much of anything.

 

Here’s the mean 500mb vs GFS

The mean western ridge axis on the analogs is actually a tad east of what the GFS has, and it’s definitely west of the alignment for the Boxing Day 2010 storm. That storm actually tracked up from the Carolina coast and inside of the benchmark while the general consensus of guidance right now is to take the surface low up from Hatteras outside (southeast) of the benchmark. So I think this certainly has room to trend snowfall back our direction, but I’m fairly doubtful it’ll be enough for C-PA due to the reasons mentioned at the top of the post. The storm gets going too late. 

That is an excellent point concerning the skew of the 15 analog means by the 2 "outliers".  It would be very interesting to be able to produce a map that does show the top 15 w/out the 2 "outliers"...but that is above my pay grade!