Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Yardstickgozinya]

13 minutes ago, SnowPlowGuy88 said:

Thanks man! I had a new guy with me Sunday. Was difficult to get any pictures or even get away for coffee. Ultimately, I just said, “ You stay here. I will bring you snow. Put it over there”. And tomorrow is day two of cleaning up. All that said, I couldn’t have gotten better results being solo. And I kinda like teaching the up and coming folks. He’s a good listener, when the earbuds aren’t in, takes criticism well, and owns up to his mistakes. He damaged some stuff, nothing major, all can be fixed in house. On the plus side, I found a hydraulic leak on my truck plow today that has been leaking some time undetected. Reservoir holds 2 quarts. I added 40 oz. Not lol gotta flip or replace a cutting edge on our push box, add some snow stakes since my regular plow buddy is still out due to surgeries and refuel, re grease and re fit for what should and hopefully be a much deserved banger for our area. Bring back summer school!!

 

Your story's brought back memory for me. My father, used to pull me in a sleed, too as a child back in the early eighties, from Valley Green to the long gone Hattie Harris gas station out by redland high school, just because him and my mother would never stock up on cigarettes before the storms.  In their defense, I don't believe they quite had the warning time we had today.  Unfortunately, my son's all grown up and  moved out two years ago. I'm sure it would have been nice to have his help. They grow up too fast man. I really hope you get to experience a few more events with them while they're still young.

Well, Fairview  township just put a few tons of snow back in my driveway so I guess it's back to work. 

[SnowPlowGuy88]

2 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Your story's brought back memory for me. My father, used to pull me in a sleed, too as a child back in the early eighties, from Valley Green to the long gone Hattie Harris gas station out by redland high school, just because him and my mother would never stock up on cigarettes before the storms.  In their defense, I don't believe they quite had the warning time we had today.  Unfortunately, my son's all grown up and  moved out two years ago. I'm sure it would have been nice to have his help. They grow up too fast man. I really hope you get to experience a few more events with them while they're still young.

Well, Fairview  township just put a few tons of snow back in my driveway so I guess it's back to work. 

Its one of my favorite childhood memories. That family grocery store is no more. Giant came to town and the owner sold a long held family business. Now its a combination physical therapy office and a Dollar General. (I frequent both) shh, don’t tell. Haha

Fairview didn’t Plow my bosses neighborhood until like 11 today. Went by on my way home. Will be first on my list of to dos tomorrow. They did his mailbox and driveway apron dirty. Even after I had cleaned both up with enough space they could angle the plow to not plaster them both. Ugh. 
 

[Itstrainingtime]

3 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

Awesome both these guys deserve it. Snownuts is the only member that's always been respectful and kind to me. And  training is the only person here that if I could take back some of the nasty things that i've said in the past I would. Congratulations fellas.

Thank you for that.

Life is full of opportunities to grow. I try and learn from mistakes and be better in life because of them. My journey continues (literally and figuratively right now) and I will continue to strive to be a better poster, but more importantly...just a better human being. And in my line of work, that is one thing that stands out to me - our culture today has lost the value of treating others well.

[Ruin]

3 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I'm looking forward to it. 

mother of god 

[MickeyTim6533]

ICON is horrific

[Itstrainingtime]

13 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

ICON is horrific

Yeah...something tells me that if it looked good, you wouldn't have posted...

[MickeyTim6533]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Yeah...something tells me that if it looked good, you wouldn't have posted...

nah, im not Ji

[canderson]

20 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

ICON is horrific

Are you and Ruin twins? 

[Itstrainingtime]

Just now, canderson said:

Are you are Ruin twins? 

Look at his post history. 

[canderson]

0z GFS is a swing and a miss by a whisker  but pieces ar there 

Considering how bad the GFS has been I how it never shows a hit - even though I’m actively rooting against a storm on Saturday.  

[Yardstickgozinya]

1 hour ago, SnowPlowGuy88 said:

Its one of my favorite childhood memories. That family grocery store is no more. Giant came to town and the owner sold a long held family business. Now its a combination physical therapy office and a Dollar General. (I frequent both) shh, don’t tell. Haha

Fairview didn’t Plow my bosses neighborhood until like 11 today. Went by on my way home. Will be first on my list of to dos tomorrow. They did his mailbox and driveway apron dirty. Even after I had cleaned both up with enough space they could angle the plow to not plaster them both. Ugh. 
 

 Yeah, it's one of mine too. The funny thing is, I bet our father's probably made us walk most of the time. 

Im not sure if you saw my post the other day but I'm not sure that your boss is my neighbor. I need to go out and get things put away tonight then I'm going to take a walk down and check  but i'm pretty sure that my neighbor actually owns Lawn Doctor. I see Grand u Lawn all the time when I'm in Medow View and I think I'm confused. His trucks are off the road at the moment, possibly not even there. 

 I try to remember that a lot of these township guys haven't been through the nineties or even 09 for that matter. The township came through once with the plow early today, but they didn't come wrap us up in the Ridge until between 6 and 8pm.   The first pass driver went down Tall oak drive twice in the same direction, so all the houses on the left side of the road ended up with twice as much snow in there driveways. It turned out not to be a problem though, my 30 year old steel auger blower chewed right through. 

[anotherman]

Canadian tantalizingly close.

[NepaJames8602]

Honestly, at around 5 days out, this is a good look. That is one powerhouse being shown. I'm sure some wild solutions are to come on these models. Great trends today.

[Yardstickgozinya]

3 hours ago, Ruin said:

mother of god 

Ha ha, I understand.  Make no mistake Pal, I can think a lot of things to complain about too when it's that cold. The stars just look so twinkley I can't help myself . Lol

[Itstrainingtime]

9 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Canadian tantalizingly close.

Yeah, just your run of the mill 3.5 footer in Salisbury.

[Voyager]

5 hours ago, canderson said:

0z GFS is a swing and a miss by a whisker  but pieces ar there 

Considering how bad the GFS has been I how it never shows a hit - even though I’m actively rooting against a storm on Saturday.  

I've got mixed emotions on this weekend. One side of me says, "enough, I'm tired of all this cold and snow", and the other side says, "bring it. Lets go for some records."

[Voyager]

Up to 120 on the 06z GFS looked good, as if it might crawl the coast, but then then it stalls off the Carolinas and then goes northeast and out to sea.

[mahantango#1]

DT"s discussion: https://bsky.app/profile/wxrisk.bsky.social/post/3mdf2hbstpk2w?fbclid=IwY2xjawPlhP1leHRuA2FlbQIxMABicmlkETFtSnJVbEZtTTMzcVFSS2ZNc3J0YwZhcHBfaWQQMjIyMDM5MTc4ODIwMDg5MgABHtea2emH2RI-PpInSW7tv9WUy4gopaTOkMyzIZUi3XiY9ngFkpFiThN78d-d_aem_vDuHang7dhGX9a-a5v_usw

‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

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LATE MON/ EARLY TUE UPDATE ON JAN 31- FEB 1 POSSIBLE SEVERE EAST COAST WINTER STORM THREAT /1 This is a discussion -NOT a forecast. 0z early Monday (1AM) op-Euro/ 6z op-EURO/ 6z Euro all develop a massive VERY powerful East Coast winter storm that deepens 975mb with winds over 45 mph.

12:43 AM · Jan 27, 2026

Everybody can reply

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

along with an incredible snow amount from Central NC to new England. BUT that is 1 **possible** outcome. The question is HOW does the Euro model do this ?? First It should be pointed out that other models are showing SIMILAR OVERALL solutions in various degrees. /2

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

Not surprisingly most of the GFS and GFS AI model runs have the MASSIVE Intense LOW somewhat further east (Typical behavior with th GFS mode and BIG East Coast LOWs) This image shows how this massive storm COULD develop in to bring about such an extreme snowstorm in the this weekend. /3

 

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

The first map shows a major s/w ( shortwave) running W-E from Iowa to the Great Lakes on Friday. This feature develops a closed 500 low that rapidly rotates as it heads SE. It swings around in SW- NE alignment, then a N to S, then NW-SE ( negative Tilt) alignment. /4 SEE IMAGE 2

 

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

The 500mb Low develops a negative Tilt ( NW-SE) and " captures" the surface LOW off SC and pulls it NW. The surface LOW reaches max size /intensity FEB 1 when the 500mb LOW the surface LOW become vertically stacked off of DEL / 5

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

Note on MAP C the 500 LOW tracks across NC then turns NE off the NJ coast and captures the surface Low. THAT IS THE KEY- any variation causes a big change with how the LOW develops & which part of the coast gets hit. The 18z Monday Euro; note the 500 LOW is in SC - NOT NC /6

 

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

This would allow the surface LOW to the captured further to the east which would mean the big cities of I-95 from Boston to DC wouldn't miss out on the best snows while eastern VA / eastern NC and Cape Cod would get blasted. /7 See 18Z op EURO

 

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

· 5h

18Z EURO ensemble has significant cluster of LOWS further West /8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[MickeyTim6533]

6Z EURO AI and 6Z Euro a miss well east

[WmsptWx]

3 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

6Z EURO AI and 6Z Euro a miss well east

Reading? That's where you live? 

 

 

[pawatch]

6 degrees for the low this morning. Doesn’t look like we are getting above freezing till next week.

The up coming snow storm are we talking Sunday or Monday, right now?

[Itstrainingtime]

17 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Reading? That's where you live? 

 

 

Oh, don't worry...he posted the same thing in the Philly thread. And in the MA thread...

He's got one agenda and I hope a mod can send him packing. He's right about one thing...he said he isn't Ji, and he's right. Ji can be a pita but he does add a ton of value. Mickey is here to troll and troll only.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Congratulations @Blizzard of 93 on your big win. 

[anotherman]

Not looking good for this weekend. Even looks too far east for the beaches at the moment.

[Blizzard of 93]

Thanks @Yardstickgozinya !

[Blizzard of 93]

Long way to go with this weekend, but need a good day of trends today.

Last week at this time, we were concerned about suppression. It turned out that Toronto & New England did very well while the southern PA mixed. We still had our best storm in 5 years, but it could have been more with a little better track.

[MickeyTim6533]

guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us

[anotherman]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Long way to go with this weekend, but need a good day of trends today.

Last week at this time, we were concerned about suppression. It turned out that Toronto & New England did very well while the southern PA mixed. We still had our best storm in 5 years, but it could have been more with a little better track.

Hard to accept that we go from psuhoffman saying it reminds him of '96 to nothing, but that is how this goes sometimes.

[mahantango#1]

JB said last night he has no changes on this hitting us. But he also said he might have to abandon his idea also. But right now this idea of a storm here, looks like burnt toast

[MickeyTim6533]

I am as frustrated as anyone. sometimes this is how it goes