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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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pasnownut

pasnownut

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s already snowing in Tennessee. Precip looks to really be blossoming & moving rather quickly east to northeast. 
Maybe we get an earlier start time while the cold is still fully entrenched?

As this has an overrunning component to it I sorta expected things to maybe show up a bit ahead of schedule. 

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MAG5035
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We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
Just now, WmsptWx said:

I think the February 2010 storms were during a wall-to-wall cold regime where it didn't warm up until the weekend after the 9th. 

 

Here's my message to the public related to the roads: If you're not forced to be on the roads on Sunday, stay home. Football is at 300 and 630 PM, run to the store today to get your beer and snacks and stay off the roads. 

Monday will be an issue with the blowing and the drifting, the blowing and the drifting, but I suspect Governor Shapiro will use the space lazers his folk apparently have to torch the roads clean. 

Thanks! Some of those 2010 storms skunked the Skook if I remember right. As for the blowing and drifting, any place that doesn't taint is going to have problems into Tuesday, I think.

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted

 

@Ellinwood updated his forecast, but still had PA looking good!

Made more significant adjustments in the mountains and pulled back totals around the coast and the DMV region a little. Gonna be interesting to see how quickly things change over to sleet, but we all know that leaning earlier vs later is the way to go 90% of the time.

SnowForecast_Jan24-26_2026_final.png

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CarlislePaWx

CarlislePaWx

Posted
Posted

I think the Jan 2016 storm would be the most recent.  That's the storm with 35" I recorded.  I know at the time the snow started early Saturday morning my temperature was 17 degrees.  I can't remember precisely where the temp was at the end, but it couldn't have been any higher than the low 20's.

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted

What's discouraging for those of us down this way is the amount of qpf being lost to sleet is growing across all models and with every run and is now very likely to impact snow totals to the point where I believe about half of Lanc Co will see less than 10", perhaps 8".  Again, still a very nice storm but the slow bleed leading up to game time is never fun.  Most of the forum still looking at 12+ so can't gripe too hard.  Comes with the territory living down this way but earlier in the week I never would have thought mixing issues would be a thing with this storm.  Frustrating with these temps.

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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted

I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. 

Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff. 

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CASH_COOP

CASH_COOP

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, canderson said:

I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. 

Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff. 

I agree, 8 to 10 inches before mixing and 1 or 2 inches of sleet on top is my thinking for me

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Mount Joy Snowman

Mount Joy Snowman

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, canderson said:

I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. 

Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff. 

If MDT falls to 8" Lancaster is in for a world of hurt ha.  I think that's going a bit too far and MDT still gets close to a foot but can't rule it out.  Not good if true that upstream is underperforming. 

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, canderson said:

I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. 

Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff. 

Classic cave!

This does Not count for the contest, lol!

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, canderson said:

I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. 

Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff. 

SPC disagrees…
  

Mesoscale Discussion 0043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0853 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

   Areas affected...northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA...western
   MS

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 241453Z - 242000Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet are expected to
   persist across the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss regions into early
   afternoon. Liquid-equivalent precipitation rates of a tenth to
   quarter-inch per hour should be common, locally up to a half-inch
   per hour.

   DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate to heavy mixed precipitation is
   ongoing across east TX and the Ark-La-Tex. Surface observations
   confirm hourly precipitation rates of .10-.25 in/hr are common, up
   to around .50 in/hr. 12Z guidance is rather consistent in indicating
   this swath of precip persisting through at least early afternoon,
   gradually shifting east-northeast amid rather pronounced low-level
   warm theta-e advection. A classic freezing rain to sleet sounding
   was sampled at 12Z in SHV. This type of thermodynamic profile should
   continue to steadily push southward in northern LA. Farther east,
   the surface freezing line should only drift to nearly stall across
   western MS into the early afternoon.

   ..Grams.. 01/24/2026
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canderson

canderson

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

SPC disagrees…
  

Mesoscale Discussion 0043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0853 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

   Areas affected...northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA...western
   MS

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 241453Z - 242000Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet are expected to
   persist across the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss regions into early
   afternoon. Liquid-equivalent precipitation rates of a tenth to
   quarter-inch per hour should be common, locally up to a half-inch
   per hour.

   DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate to heavy mixed precipitation is
   ongoing across east TX and the Ark-La-Tex. Surface observations
   confirm hourly precipitation rates of .10-.25 in/hr are common, up
   to around .50 in/hr. 12Z guidance is rather consistent in indicating
   this swath of precip persisting through at least early afternoon,
   gradually shifting east-northeast amid rather pronounced low-level
   warm theta-e advection. A classic freezing rain to sleet sounding
   was sampled at 12Z in SHV. This type of thermodynamic profile should
   continue to steadily push southward in northern LA. Farther east,
   the surface freezing line should only drift to nearly stall across
   western MS into the early afternoon.

   ..Grams.. 01/24/2026

That’s part 2. Part 1 underperformed for them. We’ll see how it goes the res if the way. Sleeting this am in the Ozarks is a bad sign to me. 
 

My parents have had no precip for 2.5 hours now. 
 

Edit: it’s not a bust - just not meeting modeling from last night outside the NAM. 

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Voyager

Voyager

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are the last 2 panels with anything significant, things lighten up by late evening for most.

IMG_1699.png

IMG_1700.png

Disheartening that even the GFS brings the mix into the Skook now. Earlier, it seemed only the NAM was doing that. 

 

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