Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s already snowing in Tennessee. Precip looks to really be blossoming & moving rather quickly east to northeast. 
Maybe we get an earlier start time while the cold is still fully entrenched?

As this has an overrunning component to it I sorta expected things to maybe show up a bit ahead of schedule. 

[Voyager]

Just now, WmsptWx said:

I think the February 2010 storms were during a wall-to-wall cold regime where it didn't warm up until the weekend after the 9th. 

 

Here's my message to the public related to the roads: If you're not forced to be on the roads on Sunday, stay home. Football is at 300 and 630 PM, run to the store today to get your beer and snacks and stay off the roads. 

Monday will be an issue with the blowing and the drifting, the blowing and the drifting, but I suspect Governor Shapiro will use the space lazers his folk apparently have to torch the roads clean. 

Thanks! Some of those 2010 storms skunked the Skook if I remember right. As for the blowing and drifting, any place that doesn't taint is going to have problems into Tuesday, I think.

[Blizzard of 93]

 

@Ellinwood updated his forecast, but still had PA looking good!

Made more significant adjustments in the mountains and pulled back totals around the coast and the DMV region a little. Gonna be interesting to see how quickly things change over to sleet, but we all know that leaning earlier vs later is the way to go 90% of the time.

•  

[CarlislePaWx]

I think the Jan 2016 storm would be the most recent.  That's the storm with 35" I recorded.  I know at the time the snow started early Saturday morning my temperature was 17 degrees.  I can't remember precisely where the temp was at the end, but it couldn't have been any higher than the low 20's.

[WmsptWx]

Looks like the GFS still gets most of us around a foot before the change.

[Blizzard of 93]

GFS is Heavy snow for all of us through 18z tomorrow 

[Blizzard of 93]

21z tomorrow by 4 pm mix to around turnpike.

[Blizzard of 93]

Mix back through I-81 by tomorrow early evening.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

21z tomorrow by 4 pm mix to around turnpike.

If you have heavy rates you got snow

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Sleet intrusion more pronounced on 12z GFS, still a nice front end thump.  Lancaster ranges from 8-13" from southern border to Etown.

[Voyager]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

21z tomorrow by 4 pm mix to around turnpike.

That's one hell of a thump just north of the mix line.

[WmsptWx]

Just now, Voyager said:

That's one hell of a thump just north of the mix line.

I'll report back. I would be about 10-15 miles north.

[Voyager]

Just now, WmsptWx said:

I'll report back. I would be about 10-15 miles north.

I'm in it as well. 

[Voyager]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Mix back through I-81 by tomorrow early evening.

What does the next panel show?

[Blizzard of 93]

12 to 16 on GFS for Harrisburg, York & Lancaster reporting stations this run.

GFS is mostly noise level changes.

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

What does the next panel show?

Here are the last 2 panels with anything significant, things lighten up by late evening for most.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

What's discouraging for those of us down this way is the amount of qpf being lost to sleet is growing across all models and with every run and is now very likely to impact snow totals to the point where I believe about half of Lanc Co will see less than 10", perhaps 8".  Again, still a very nice storm but the slow bleed leading up to game time is never fun.  Most of the forum still looking at 12+ so can't gripe too hard.  Comes with the territory living down this way but earlier in the week I never would have thought mixing issues would be a thing with this storm.  Frustrating with these temps.

[canderson]

I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. 

Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff. 

[CASH_COOP]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. 

Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff. 

I agree, 8 to 10 inches before mixing and 1 or 2 inches of sleet on top is my thinking for me

[Mount Joy Snowman]

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. 

Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff. 

If MDT falls to 8" Lancaster is in for a world of hurt ha.  I think that's going a bit too far and MDT still gets close to a foot but can't rule it out.  Not good if true that upstream is underperforming. 

[Blizzard of 93]

10 minutes ago, canderson said:

I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. 

Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff. 

Classic cave!

This does Not count for the contest, lol!

[pawatch]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Classic cave!

This does Not count for the contest, lol!

Somebody is still going to win 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The Ukie holds with 10+ for the forum but to be honest I think it's struggling with the sleet depiction and underdoing it a bit, unfortunately.  Has a decent primary into western PA and displays a weird orientation of the sleet axis.  But I would be thrilled with its result at this point. 

[WmsptWx]

1 minute ago, pawatch said:

Somebody is still going to win 

It me. 

 

(Probably not. Probably Coudersport lol).

[Mount Joy Snowman]

15z RAP hot off the press, still holding off the sleet for the most part and staying the course.  Hey, at least all the crappy models still have our back bahahahaha.  I'm riding with the RAP/FV3 combo; what could go wrong!? 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

18 minutes ago, canderson said:

I tend to think the NAM is right. It’s already sleeting in the Ozarks, which was not forecast to flip for many hours. I’m going to downgrade my MDT prediction to 8.75”. Precip overall back in OK/AR/TX has underperformed so far. 

Still a great, great storm. But a far cry from 16” of fluff. 

SPC disagrees…
 

Mesoscale Discussion 0043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0853 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

   Areas affected...northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA...western
   MS

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 241453Z - 242000Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet are expected to
   persist across the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss regions into early
   afternoon. Liquid-equivalent precipitation rates of a tenth to
   quarter-inch per hour should be common, locally up to a half-inch
   per hour.

   DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate to heavy mixed precipitation is
   ongoing across east TX and the Ark-La-Tex. Surface observations
   confirm hourly precipitation rates of .10-.25 in/hr are common, up
   to around .50 in/hr. 12Z guidance is rather consistent in indicating
   this swath of precip persisting through at least early afternoon,
   gradually shifting east-northeast amid rather pronounced low-level
   warm theta-e advection. A classic freezing rain to sleet sounding
   was sampled at 12Z in SHV. This type of thermodynamic profile should
   continue to steadily push southward in northern LA. Farther east,
   the surface freezing line should only drift to nearly stall across
   western MS into the early afternoon.

   ..Grams.. 01/24/2026

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

SPC disagrees…
 

Mesoscale Discussion 0043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0853 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

   Areas affected...northeast TX...southern AR...northern LA...western
   MS

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 241453Z - 242000Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy freezing rain and sleet are expected to
   persist across the Ark-La-Tex to Ark-La-Miss regions into early
   afternoon. Liquid-equivalent precipitation rates of a tenth to
   quarter-inch per hour should be common, locally up to a half-inch
   per hour.

   DISCUSSION...A swath of moderate to heavy mixed precipitation is
   ongoing across east TX and the Ark-La-Tex. Surface observations
   confirm hourly precipitation rates of .10-.25 in/hr are common, up
   to around .50 in/hr. 12Z guidance is rather consistent in indicating
   this swath of precip persisting through at least early afternoon,
   gradually shifting east-northeast amid rather pronounced low-level
   warm theta-e advection. A classic freezing rain to sleet sounding
   was sampled at 12Z in SHV. This type of thermodynamic profile should
   continue to steadily push southward in northern LA. Farther east,
   the surface freezing line should only drift to nearly stall across
   western MS into the early afternoon.

   ..Grams.. 01/24/2026

That’s part 2. Part 1 underperformed for them. We’ll see how it goes the res if the way. Sleeting this am in the Ozarks is a bad sign to me. 
 

My parents have had no precip for 2.5 hours now. 
 

Edit: it’s not a bust - just not meeting modeling from last night outside the NAM. 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

That’s part 2. Part 1 underperformed for them. We’ll see how it goes the res if the way. Sleeting this am in the Ozarks is a bad sign to me. 
 

My parents have had no precip for 2.5 hours now. 

Fake, fake news…lol!

[Voyager]

51 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here are the last 2 panels with anything significant, things lighten up by late evening for most.

Disheartening that even the GFS brings the mix into the Skook now. Earlier, it seemed only the NAM was doing that. 

 

[Superstorm]

Fake, fake news…lol!

https://x.com/daniloevan11/status/2015099737947382146?s=46


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