paweather Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1pm Storm is well underway with mod snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 4pm Mix/Snow line reaches PA/MD border. Rippin snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7pm looks like Mix line finally reaches SCPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago DT will have his first guess map out in about a hour...can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago NAM still bringing the mix after about 8-10" for most of us and bullseyes the I-80 corridor. We'll see if it leads the way or adjusts back in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The nam is really pumping warmth into the 700mb layer. I call its bluff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago CTP 10-16” For my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: NAM still bringing the mix after about 8-10" for most of us and bullseyes the I-80 corridor. We'll see if it leads the way or adjusts back in the next 24 hours. The "blues" are getting awfully close to southern tier snowhounds. I'm sitting on the beach in Miami with a lot of interesting "sights" surrounding me, all while I'm perusing the f'ing NAM. WTF is wrong with me? 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: NAM still bringing the mix after about 8-10" for most of us and bullseyes the I-80 corridor. We'll see if it leads the way or adjusts back in the next 24 hours. back from philly and morgantown meetings. HH Nam was a touch better wrt transition zone eeking south a bit from 12z. sorta splitin hairs i know, but when your in that battlezones, a little can mean a lot. Primary hangin too tough verbatim. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, canderson said: The nam is really pumping warmth into the 700mb layer. I call its bluff. something to be mindful of, is that if/when we taint, its pingerville and not rain. I'd think tomorrow skew Ts can start being considered and will hold more weight once we define primary/secondary SLP placements and timing of jump to the coast. Verbatim, HH Nam is a razors edge for lsv, with 850's still safe through entirety. Thats a pinger signal if we ever saw one, and just a little wiggle south, can keep the pingers right on the M/D line, or if north, up to second tier souther counties. If this look could hold, I'd sign right now and not fret the upside that it doesnt show for us southeasters. A little move back south tonight and M/D line sees a nice bump in snow totals. Really not sure how this cookie crumbles, but at least we've got the cookie firmly in our grasp. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago The 12k nam is loads better than the 3k, not surprisingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Not buying the warmth pushing that far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago As I was dropping some cold sandbags from my balloon and had a thought.. Generally, Im not a fan of depending on southern adjustment over the final 24 and go time, but I think this storm's going to do just that for the same reason that most of us thought this baby was getting suppressed. I'm not letting these model runs take me out of some of my original thinking. Well, at least i'm going use my original thinking to get my way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, Ruin said: Not buying the warmth pushing that far Don't forget, storms can also make their own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said: Don't forget, storms can also make their own. True. But this is a fresh injection of Arctic air. It's not cold air. It's Arctic, on top of that. It hasn't been sitting around for a couple days. At this point, it's being drawn down Friday night. We might have some pingers, we're not going to change over to sleep or freezing rain plus a gps just when south now. And we have a very strong, high pressure versus the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 16 minutes ago, Ruin said: Not buying the warmth pushing that far Since I signed up about 20 years ago I have read SO many people say this very thing leading up to winter storms. Not to say it will happen, but don't ever underestimate warm air intrusion. It often extends farther than we want to believe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 hours ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Yeah, this is something I've noticed many times over the years, where a skew-t gives a clear no-doubt-about-it all snow signal the whole way through the column and yet the output will say mix. I have no idea what's going on in the algorithm that causes that to occur. Anyone? Doesn't seem like anyone's going to answer. I had a thought that's most likely wrong but I'll throw it out there anyways. I was thinking that maybe because it's modeled and not actually sampled there's other data points influencing the best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, Ruin said: True. But this is a fresh injection of Arctic air. It's not cold air. It's Arctic, on top of that. It hasn't been sitting around for a couple days. At this point, it's being drawn down Friday night. We might have some pingers, we're not going to change over to sleep or freezing rain plus a gps just when south now. And we have a very strong, high pressure versus the storm Yeah, I mean, the guys are right that warm air can be a b**** but really anyone's guess at this point .But yeah, i'm kind of riding that same crazy train as you. Although on my train sleet and pingers are the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 57 minutes ago, paweather5 said: Yikes. Too close for comfort for me. Wow... What did Aerosmith say, Livin' on the Edge... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Since I signed up about 20 years ago I have read SO many people say this very thing leading up to winter storms. Not to say it will happen, but don't ever underestimate warm air intrusion. It often extends farther than we want to believe. We dont wanna listen, but to your point, us lower susqu'rs cannot ignore this. to the contrary, this isnt a miller A, this is a B that its coming more at us than up, and with the deep cold entrenchment in lower and mid levels, this is a situ where CAD could/should really show its teeth IMO. If we had a 50/50, this'd b a storm of epic proportions, but based on progressive nature, not sure how big the warm nose will be. Still need to root on quicker secondary pop, or less consolidation w/ primary. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Voyager said: Yikes. Too close for comfort for me. Wow... What did Aerosmith say, Livin' on the Edge... Yeah, but they also said dream on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS drier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: We dont wanna listen, but to your point, us lower susqu'rs cannot ignore this. to the contrary, this isnt a miller A, this is a B that its coming more at us than up, and with the deep cold entrenchment in lower and mid levels, this is a situ where CAD could/should really show its teeth IMO. If we had a 50/50, this'd b a storm of epic proportions, but based on progressive nature, not sure how big the warm nose will be. Still need to root on quicker secondary pop, or less consolidation w/ primary. Especially me. I think me and @Superstorm may be the most southeasterners on the board?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, pasnownut said: We dont wanna listen, but to your point, us lower susqu'rs cannot ignore this. to the contrary, this isnt a miller A, this is a B that its coming more at us than up, and with the deep cold entrenchment in lower and mid levels, this is a situ where CAD could/should really show its teeth IMO. If we had a 50/50, this'd b a storm of epic proportions, but based on progressive nature, not sure how big the warm nose will be. Still need to root on quicker secondary pop, or less consolidation w/ primary. The floridians and their warm bias have corroded his mind, there's no saving him now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago out to 78, HH GFS is tryin hard to win yall over. I know I'm liking what I'm seein...so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said: GFS drier No it’s not. It’s a mauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago GFS is going to be a beat down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, canderson said: No it’s not. It’s a mauling. yes, I spoke too soon. sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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