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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Jns2183
Jns2183

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it wa

MAG5035
MAG5035

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

MAG5035
MAG5035

Nice to see the snow hole the central counties shrink some with the more robust than expected snow shield developing back further last night. Unfortunately I was only the recipient of a light coating,

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

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6 hours ago, pasnownut said:

GFS....yeah you can laugh at that one 

CMC qpf distribution sounds close to euro AI???  Huhh

 

Regardless...plenty of time for changes that will happen, for better or worse.

 

I like where we sit now in southern PA for Sunday. We tend to do well when a slight north trend is needed to get into the good stuff with this type of set up. 

This set up reminds me of PD2 back in 2003 with the Arctic High slowly pressing in while precip stretched from southern PA back to Oklahoma and crawled east to the northeast. PD2 trended north during the last 48 hours before the event. Forecasts for the LSV as early as the day before the event had us getting 6 to 10, but as the event got underway, it kept bumping up. We ended up with many spots in the LSV getting 2 feet.

Ratios for this event should be 15 or 20 to 1, so a foot of snow would be possible even if we only get .6 of precip and miss out on the precip jackpot.

I think the odds of at least a minimal Warning event for the southern third of PA are high. With a gradual slight northward trend, the chance of a double digit event is certainly still in play.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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Early 0z stuff, regular NBM vs v5 NBM (newer version thats suppose to be fully operational in the spring). This has improved a tad for PA in the last couple runs. Right now I’m more watching this just for changes in the axis of the swath of heaviest snows vs any kind of amounts. But those kind of heavier amounts this far out is definitely a pretty strong signal considering the array of products that make up those NBM blends. 

image.thumb.png.ce4c1e9461b65e48ef995d0917c20b78.png

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
Posted
I like where we sit now in southern PA for Sunday. We tend to do well when a slight north trend is needed to get into the good stuff with this type of set up. 
This set up reminds me of PD2 back in 2003 with the Arctic High slowly pressing in while precip stretched from southern PA back to Oklahoma and crawled east to the northeast. PD2 trended north during the last 48 hours before the event. Forecasts for the LSV as early as the day before the event had us getting 6 to 10, but as the event got underway, it kept bumping up. We ended up with many spots in the LSV getting 2 feet.

Ratios for this event should be 15 or 20 to 1, so a foot of snow would be possible even if we only get .6 of precip and miss out on the precip jackpot.
I think the odds of at least a minimal Warning event for the southern third of PA are high. With a gradual slight northward trend, the chance of a double digit event is certainly still in play.
I think this storm is partly here due to la Nina breaking down. That increases volitilty significantly which is what we want for a big storm. The down side is the northern trend all winter has been due in part to the la Nina. I also feel, and I believe, studies have panned at that the northern trend that models do well above 50/50, isn't do so much to the teleconnection as it is data availability and it being much more available at lower latitude. If anything the prudent choice of action would be to see which models have had the better accuracy with high pressure placements at higher latitude both all winter and during the past month as that seems to be the hinge this storms depends upon

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Jns2183

Jns2183

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Well I think I’m chasing this one. But not too far to chase it looks like the models are coming together for middle Atlantic snowstorm. Too much high pressure for us. IMO
I don't think you're going to know till within 24 hours with how models have been.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I like where we sit now in southern PA for Sunday. We tend to do well when a slight north trend is needed to get into the good stuff with this type of set up. 

This set up reminds me of PD2 back in 2003 with the Arctic High slowly pressing in while precip stretched from southern PA back to Oklahoma and crawled east to the northeast. PD2 trended north during the last 48 hours before the event. Forecasts for the LSV as early as the day before the event had us getting 6 to 10, but as the event got underway, it kept bumping up. We ended up with many spots in the LSV getting 2 feet.

Ratios for this event should be 15 or 20 to 1, so a foot of snow would be possible even if we only get .6 of precip and miss out on the precip jackpot.

I think the odds of at least a minimal Warning event for the southern third of PA are high. With a gradual slight northward trend, the chance of a double digit event is certainly still in play.

based on setup/evolution, I feel pretty good about at least warning level for southers, w/ I80 still well in the game for something notable.  This setup isnt so much slp placement as much as baroclinic zone and max forcing in between NS/SS.  While 700's frontogenic still well south of us, euro was gettin close enough to raise ones eyebrow.  IMO this is a tad more simple to watch vs miller a, as trough axis isnt really in play as much as forcing and where best lift sets up.  Thats how i see it anyways. 

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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While GFS has been less than stellar, I still look for trends/similarities, and 0z just made a rather notable move N w/ qpf well into pa.  toggle back from last few runs and quite the bump north.  SLP pops about 150-200 miles N of HH run.  I'll absolutely take this as a good sign.  

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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5 minutes ago, paweather said:

Maybe I spoke too soon? GFS definitely north.

I was just gettin ready to say something along the lines of "havent we done this before"...like last week :). 

Stay put bud.  I think you'll be fine right where you are.  Not saying we jackpot, but definately plenty enough to sit tight and enjoy.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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3 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

I think this storm is partly here due to la Nina breaking down. That increases volitilty significantly which is what we want for a big storm. The down side is the northern trend all winter has been due in part to the la Nina. I also feel, and I believe, studies have panned at that the northern trend that models do well above 50/50, isn't do so much to the teleconnection as it is data availability and it being much more available at lower latitude. If anything the prudent choice of action would be to see which models have had the better accuracy with high pressure placements at higher latitude both all winter and during the past month as that seems to be the hinge this storms depends upon

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

I think in terms of the storm that could be at least partly true in terms of the Nina. More specifically it’s more of a function of the MJO in my opinion. It spent basically the whole month of December and the first 10 days of January in the null phase. So not much input from that, and we had northern branch dominated storm track that was very dry. Now there’s a pretty good pulse moving from 6-7-8, so I think that’s a driver in finally seeing a meaningful southern stream system show up on modelling. 

So the next question is what’s going to happen with it. I think as long as this thing comes out in one piece we will probably do well here. DT’s thoughts were posted a few pages ago saying about how important the MJO is and that it HAS to get into 8. Well for Richmond and that portion of the Mid-Atlantic, yea it probably does. Most deterministic guidance rapidly traverses 7 this week but doesn’t get there for this storm (close to 7/8 border). And this checks out with the 500mb pattern. 500 mb western ridge axis is in fact west of the classic positioning for C-PA. A more phased solution is going to build heights in the southeast as the storm comes out. It’s why I don’t particularly think a more phased and organized storm is going to get suppressed under us even with all the arctic air available. Now if energy is left behind and it comes out piecemeal, then sure… the heaviest precip will probably be to the south of C-PA. Even the improved 0z GFS run still left a lot of southern stream energy behind and there’s a big difference between that and the Canadian. Canadian phases it. 

image.thumb.png.981be8144f091347363600cdee35d503.png

Look at the height anomalies in the southeast even in the GFS case. If there wasn’t so much cold air in the pattern for this I would be more concerned about a more wound up system being some kind of a mixing event up into PA. But in this case I feel the more wound up scenario probably puts C-PA in the best snows. The key is going to be how these features come out and their interactions. 

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