Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[GrandmasterB]

24 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

From the MA thread. This looks like a decent hit for most with some more to come. Tick north would be welcome.

Also quite a bit slower. I think that would help us up here. 

[WmsptWx]

8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Over/under on. 5 tweets this week?

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Oh if the GFS ends up scoring one, he'll crush the over. 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 hours ago, pasnownut said:

GFS....yeah you can laugh at that one 

CMC qpf distribution sounds close to euro AI???  Huhh

 

Regardless...plenty of time for changes that will happen, for better or worse.

 

I like where we sit now in southern PA for Sunday. We tend to do well when a slight north trend is needed to get into the good stuff with this type of set up. 

This set up reminds me of PD2 back in 2003 with the Arctic High slowly pressing in while precip stretched from southern PA back to Oklahoma and crawled east to the northeast. PD2 trended north during the last 48 hours before the event. Forecasts for the LSV as early as the day before the event had us getting 6 to 10, but as the event got underway, it kept bumping up. We ended up with many spots in the LSV getting 2 feet.

Ratios for this event should be 15 or 20 to 1, so a foot of snow would be possible even if we only get .6 of precip and miss out on the precip jackpot.

I think the odds of at least a minimal Warning event for the southern third of PA are high. With a gradual slight northward trend, the chance of a double digit event is certainly still in play.

[MAG5035]

Early 0z stuff, regular NBM vs v5 NBM (newer version thats suppose to be fully operational in the spring). This has improved a tad for PA in the last couple runs. Right now I’m more watching this just for changes in the axis of the swath of heaviest snows vs any kind of amounts. But those kind of heavier amounts this far out is definitely a pretty strong signal considering the array of products that make up those NBM blends. 

[Jns2183]

I like where we sit now in southern PA for Sunday. We tend to do well when a slight north trend is needed to get into the good stuff with this type of set up. 
This set up reminds me of PD2 back in 2003 with the Arctic High slowly pressing in while precip stretched from southern PA back to Oklahoma and crawled east to the northeast. PD2 trended north during the last 48 hours before the event. Forecasts for the LSV as early as the day before the event had us getting 6 to 10, but as the event got underway, it kept bumping up. We ended up with many spots in the LSV getting 2 feet.

Ratios for this event should be 15 or 20 to 1, so a foot of snow would be possible even if we only get .6 of precip and miss out on the precip jackpot.
I think the odds of at least a minimal Warning event for the southern third of PA are high. With a gradual slight northward trend, the chance of a double digit event is certainly still in play.

I think this storm is partly here due to la Nina breaking down. That increases volitilty significantly which is what we want for a big storm. The down side is the northern trend all winter has been due in part to the la Nina. I also feel, and I believe, studies have panned at that the northern trend that models do well above 50/50, isn't do so much to the teleconnection as it is data availability and it being much more available at lower latitude. If anything the prudent choice of action would be to see which models have had the better accuracy with high pressure placements at higher latitude both all winter and during the past month as that seems to be the hinge this storms depends upon

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[Jns2183]

@MAG5035 please correct me if I'm mistaken. I could totally be off on a wrong track and have no idea. I'd rather be wrong and learn than keep spouting crap.

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[canderson]

Are we at the point we start conceptionizing a 112 hour NAM? 

[paweather]

Well I think I’m chasing this one. But not too far to chase it looks like the models are coming together for middle Atlantic snowstorm. Too much high pressure for us. IMO

[Jns2183]

Well I think I’m chasing this one. But not too far to chase it looks like the models are coming together for middle Atlantic snowstorm. Too much high pressure for us. IMO

I don't think you're going to know till within 24 hours with how models have been.

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[Jns2183]

If anything this reminds me of December 2009

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[pasnownut]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

I like where we sit now in southern PA for Sunday. We tend to do well when a slight north trend is needed to get into the good stuff with this type of set up. 

This set up reminds me of PD2 back in 2003 with the Arctic High slowly pressing in while precip stretched from southern PA back to Oklahoma and crawled east to the northeast. PD2 trended north during the last 48 hours before the event. Forecasts for the LSV as early as the day before the event had us getting 6 to 10, but as the event got underway, it kept bumping up. We ended up with many spots in the LSV getting 2 feet.

Ratios for this event should be 15 or 20 to 1, so a foot of snow would be possible even if we only get .6 of precip and miss out on the precip jackpot.

I think the odds of at least a minimal Warning event for the southern third of PA are high. With a gradual slight northward trend, the chance of a double digit event is certainly still in play.

based on setup/evolution, I feel pretty good about at least warning level for southers, w/ I80 still well in the game for something notable.  This setup isnt so much slp placement as much as baroclinic zone and max forcing in between NS/SS.  While 700's frontogenic still well south of us, euro was gettin close enough to raise ones eyebrow.  IMO this is a tad more simple to watch vs miller a, as trough axis isnt really in play as much as forcing and where best lift sets up.  Thats how i see it anyways. 

[pasnownut]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

Are we at the point we start conceptionizing a 112 hour NAM? 

extrapolate a will pal....

[paweather]

Maybe I spoke too soon? GFS definitely north.

[pasnownut]

While GFS has been less than stellar, I still look for trends/similarities, and 0z just made a rather notable move N w/ qpf well into pa.  toggle back from last few runs and quite the bump north.  SLP pops about 150-200 miles N of HH run.  I'll absolutely take this as a good sign.  

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, paweather said:

Maybe I spoke too soon? GFS definitely north.

I was just gettin ready to say something along the lines of "havent we done this before"...like last week :). 

Stay put bud.  I think you'll be fine right where you are.  Not saying we jackpot, but definately plenty enough to sit tight and enjoy.

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I was just gettin ready to say something along the lines of "havent we done this before"...like last week :). 

Stay put bud.  I think you'll be fine right where you are.  Not saying we jackpot, but definately plenty enough to sit tight and enjoy.

Thanks Nut

[MAG5035]

Big improvement for PA on the 0z GFS vs 18z run and especially the 12z today, where there wasn’t even measurable snow anywhere near us. 

0z vs 18z

[paweather]

CMC looks great!

[anotherman]

It’s going to be a long week.

[Blizzard of 93]

Great trends at 0z from the Canadian & GFS!

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Canadian!

[pasnownut]

29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z Canadian!

2nd place in eastern pa never felt so good.  

north trends seem to continue.  Gnight all.  

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Ukie is apparently very good as well!