Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[GrandmasterB]

24 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

From the MA thread. This looks like a decent hit for most with some more to come. Tick north would be welcome.

Also quite a bit slower. I think that would help us up here. 

[WmsptWx]

8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Over/under on. 5 tweets this week?

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Oh if the GFS ends up scoring one, he'll crush the over. 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 hours ago, pasnownut said:

GFS....yeah you can laugh at that one 

CMC qpf distribution sounds close to euro AI???  Huhh

 

Regardless...plenty of time for changes that will happen, for better or worse.

 

I like where we sit now in southern PA for Sunday. We tend to do well when a slight north trend is needed to get into the good stuff with this type of set up. 

This set up reminds me of PD2 back in 2003 with the Arctic High slowly pressing in while precip stretched from southern PA back to Oklahoma and crawled east to the northeast. PD2 trended north during the last 48 hours before the event. Forecasts for the LSV as early as the day before the event had us getting 6 to 10, but as the event got underway, it kept bumping up. We ended up with many spots in the LSV getting 2 feet.

Ratios for this event should be 15 or 20 to 1, so a foot of snow would be possible even if we only get .6 of precip and miss out on the precip jackpot.

I think the odds of at least a minimal Warning event for the southern third of PA are high. With a gradual slight northward trend, the chance of a double digit event is certainly still in play.

[MAG5035]

Early 0z stuff, regular NBM vs v5 NBM (newer version thats suppose to be fully operational in the spring). This has improved a tad for PA in the last couple runs. Right now I’m more watching this just for changes in the axis of the swath of heaviest snows vs any kind of amounts. But those kind of heavier amounts this far out is definitely a pretty strong signal considering the array of products that make up those NBM blends. 

[Jns2183]

I like where we sit now in southern PA for Sunday. We tend to do well when a slight north trend is needed to get into the good stuff with this type of set up. 
This set up reminds me of PD2 back in 2003 with the Arctic High slowly pressing in while precip stretched from southern PA back to Oklahoma and crawled east to the northeast. PD2 trended north during the last 48 hours before the event. Forecasts for the LSV as early as the day before the event had us getting 6 to 10, but as the event got underway, it kept bumping up. We ended up with many spots in the LSV getting 2 feet.

Ratios for this event should be 15 or 20 to 1, so a foot of snow would be possible even if we only get .6 of precip and miss out on the precip jackpot.
I think the odds of at least a minimal Warning event for the southern third of PA are high. With a gradual slight northward trend, the chance of a double digit event is certainly still in play.

I think this storm is partly here due to la Nina breaking down. That increases volitilty significantly which is what we want for a big storm. The down side is the northern trend all winter has been due in part to the la Nina. I also feel, and I believe, studies have panned at that the northern trend that models do well above 50/50, isn't do so much to the teleconnection as it is data availability and it being much more available at lower latitude. If anything the prudent choice of action would be to see which models have had the better accuracy with high pressure placements at higher latitude both all winter and during the past month as that seems to be the hinge this storms depends upon

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[Jns2183]

@MAG5035 please correct me if I'm mistaken. I could totally be off on a wrong track and have no idea. I'd rather be wrong and learn than keep spouting crap.

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[canderson]

Are we at the point we start conceptionizing a 112 hour NAM? 

[paweather]

Well I think I’m chasing this one. But not too far to chase it looks like the models are coming together for middle Atlantic snowstorm. Too much high pressure for us. IMO