Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[GrandmasterB]

24 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

From the MA thread. This looks like a decent hit for most with some more to come. Tick north would be welcome.

Also quite a bit slower. I think that would help us up here. 

[WmsptWx]

8 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

Over/under on. 5 tweets this week?

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Oh if the GFS ends up scoring one, he'll crush the over. 

[Blizzard of 93]

6 hours ago, pasnownut said:

GFS....yeah you can laugh at that one 

CMC qpf distribution sounds close to euro AI???  Huhh

 

Regardless...plenty of time for changes that will happen, for better or worse.

 

I like where we sit now in southern PA for Sunday. We tend to do well when a slight north trend is needed to get into the good stuff with this type of set up. 

This set up reminds me of PD2 back in 2003 with the Arctic High slowly pressing in while precip stretched from southern PA back to Oklahoma and crawled east to the northeast. PD2 trended north during the last 48 hours before the event. Forecasts for the LSV as early as the day before the event had us getting 6 to 10, but as the event got underway, it kept bumping up. We ended up with many spots in the LSV getting 2 feet.

Ratios for this event should be 15 or 20 to 1, so a foot of snow would be possible even if we only get .6 of precip and miss out on the precip jackpot.

I think the odds of at least a minimal Warning event for the southern third of PA are high. With a gradual slight northward trend, the chance of a double digit event is certainly still in play.