Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

42 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

That matches up very well with the report I got from my friend here at work - he is just north of Rt. 6 and I want to say about 8 miles south of Coudersport? 

Edit: I see that Rt. 6 sort of runs through Coudersport...well, he said he's just north of Rt. 6 but he also said he's in the middle of nowhere...so maybe 8 miles east or west. 

Yes, it does.  He'd be east of coudersport, which is where that Sweden hill snow cam is located.  If my assumption is correct, its called Potato City and that area has lots of cabins. Back in the day it was a snowmobile mecca of sorts. 

Im about 10-12 miles further east on 6 right between the village of gaines and Ansonia.  My place is 4 miles north of rt 6 up on top (for best LES accums of course .  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

3 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Nooner NAM nest has LES streamer parked over my place in Gaines.  As sled trails open at close of rifle season (dark) saturday night, it'd be fun a shit to take them up for a rip and blow much dust off them.  Hoping norther woods can survive whatever the warmup is (although Ens guidance sorta says not likely).  Tellies show mixed signals IMO but neg PNA is not typically a good precurser to winter in the east.  Coupled w/ WAR....yuk.  Still enough time for that to change for better or worse.

Sure enough, streamers been going right over that area.  Multiple periods of whiteout on my buddy's cam.  Awesome stuff.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

22 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Yes, it does.  He'd be east of coudersport, which is where that Sweden hill snow cam is located.  If my assumption is correct, its called Potato City and that area has lots of cabins. Back in the day it was a snowmobile mecca of sorts. 

Im about 10-12 miles further east on 6 right between the village of gaines and Ansonia.  My place is 4 miles north of rt 6 up on top (for best LES accums of course .  

I know we've hashed this out before, but my buddy's place is a little under 4 miles east of the Tioga/Potter border and a little over 3 miles SSE of Gaines, close to 2,000'.

[Ruin]

4 hours ago, AccuChris said:

At least for my area it was pretty spot on


.

Yeah very bad here too

[AMDEW80]

2 hours ago, pasnownut said:

Was 6" when I left last Wednesday 12/3, and from what i'm hearing, we are aoa 9-10" otg.  I'm 3 miles east of potter/tioga border and abt 15 miles S of NY border.  Technically way west central Tioga.

With all the northern tier talk, thought I would drop a message.  I’m in tioga county, and it has been a very nice start to winter up here, especially the last two days.  It snowed all day yesterday, and have had some nice squalls coming through all day today(a very heavy one about an hour ago), loving the snow and cold so far to start winter! Hope the LSV cashes in before any warm up! 

[Voyager]

I can't wait until next Wednesday and Thursday!!!

[Itstrainingtime]

GFS is fugly. Hope it's wrong.

I hope after the upcoming thaw we can get back in the freezer by the end of the year. I know a lot of people hate dry and cold...I get it, but I hate warm when it's supposed to be cold. God knows we have many months of warm weather.

[AccuChris]

GFS is fugly. Hope it's wrong.
I hope after the upcoming thaw we can get back in the freezer by the end of the year. I know a lot of people hate dry and cold...I get it, but I hate warm when it's supposed to be cold. God knows we have many months of warm weather.

The “good” news is the Euro and NAM generally agree which is usually a good allegiance


.

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, Itstrainingtime said:

GFS is fugly. Hope it's wrong.

I hope after the upcoming thaw we can get back in the freezer by the end of the year. I know a lot of people hate dry and cold...I get it, but I hate warm when it's supposed to be cold. God knows we have many months of warm weather.

I don't want "warm", just normal. My job gets difficult and stressful when we get Arctic cold. 

[Ruin]

So feeling, this could be one of those winters where it shows the storm.It shows a storm and then it stops.And we move on to the next storm, rinse and repeat, and all this cold air goes the waist and then we warm up

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP thoughts on our weekend snow chance.

To the south of the main upper low center near Lake Superior,
another fast moving system will streak around the southern
periphery of the upper trough from the Northern Plains through
the Ohio Valley and into the Central Appalachians and Mid
Atlantic Saturday night through Sunday morning. The upper trough
is fcst to dig/amplify as it pivots eastward and should drive
coastal low development while dragging a pocket of -20C air at
850mb into southwest PA/WV by Sunday afternoon.

Odds are rising for a broad area of expanding/accumulating snow
Saturday night through early Sunday across CPA. NBM probs for
>3" are highest over the southern Laurels and southeast portion
of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The arrival of arctic air
ensures snow character will be very dry and fluffy.

[NepaJames8602]

Incredible, just got home from work and just finished cleaning up the driveway and steps. 3.0" inches of lake effect from this tiny streamer sitting over my area of the Poconos this evening. Roads are horrendous. This is very localized stuff around here this evening. Season total now 15.0". Still snowing extremely heavy. 

 

 

[Blizzard of 93]

2 hours ago, AccuChris said:

The “good” news is the Euro and NAM generally agree which is usually a good allegiance


.

Agreed & there is still plenty of model variability at this range.

I like our chances for a solid Advisory level 1 to 3 inch snow chance with a few lucky spots getting 4 inches. Ratios should be favorable to max out whatever amount of precip we can get.

[Blizzard of 93]

The 30 day temperature anomaly on today’s Euro Weeklies is near normal for the period from late December into late January for this region.

Hopefully we have chances for Winter storms with near normal being good enough in January.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z NAM brings 2 to 3 inches for most of the LSV on Sunday am.

[MAG5035]

3 hours ago, NepaJames8602 said:

Incredible, just got home from work and just finished cleaning up the driveway and steps. 3.0" inches of lake effect from this tiny streamer sitting over my area of the Poconos this evening. Roads are horrendous. This is very localized stuff around here this evening. Season total now 15.0". Still snowing extremely heavy. 

 

 

 

Thats quite a snow band, it’s actually reaching the whole way over through Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn in NYC where OKX has a special weather statement out for a dusting to an inch.  

[mahantango#1]

Wxrisk.com

setSponrdo3961308alc9ga6i201l6cc4t853u29t37ml0a0g25hfcu876fa ·

 

MAJOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEATHER MODELS.... starting DEC 17 !!!

[mahantango#1]

Just how long and strong will this advertised warm up last? Will it get cut off at the pass or will we all enjoy warmer weather? Does this also mean there won't be any frozen precipitation events either?

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP point & click for Harrisburg:

Saturday Night

Snow showers. Low around 24. Northwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. 

[Blizzard of 93]

The 6z RGEM brings a widespread 1 to 3 to 3 to the LSV.

[mahantango#1]

[Voyager]

59 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Just how long and strong will this advertised warm up last? Will it get cut off at the pass or will we all enjoy warmer weather? Does this also mean there won't be any frozen precipitation events either?

Honestly, I think only two of us will enjoy the warmer weather...lol

[mahantango#1]

20 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Honestly, I think only two of us will enjoy the warmer weather...lol

I wonder who those 2 are?

[ChescoWx]

Today will be our 15th of the last 16 days with below normal temperatures as our Top 10 coldest starts to December in our history continues. It’s sunny today but clouds will increase tomorrow with snow arriving after 10pm. Snow will continue overnight till around 8am on Sunday morning before ending. The current NWS forecast has between 2" to 4" of snow across the area. We could see some blowing and drifting snow by afternoon across the typical open field and roads. We look to stay below freezing until Wednesday and then finally see a nice warmup with temperatures several degrees above normal through next weekend before we chill down to close to normal levels for the Christmas Holiday.