Winter 2025/26 Banter Thread

[michsnowfreak]

On 12/24/2025 at 11:36 AM, Frog Town said:

It will always be like this with the mean trough axis over us or to our east, which is pretty much where it's been the last two winters.  Light dusters galore but when the big ones come, we warm up.  Need the mean trough 500 miles to our west which is when we cash in with the big dogs.  But of course, we always run the risk of Miller B's giving the goods to the EC.  Climate..

Ive been a weather observer for 30 years now. We get plenty of all snow systems. The east coast actually gets more mix systems than we do. The pattern right now is super funky but once we flush this out im liking January overall. 

[Stevo6899]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ive been a weather observer for 30 years now. We get plenty of all snow systems. The east coast actually gets more mix systems than we do. The pattern right now is super funky but once we flush this out im liking January overall. 

The point is a big chunk of the big systems that take a favorable track for us are Miller b and transfer energy to the coast. Not all, but a lot.

[RogueWaves]

10 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

The point is a big chunk of the big systems that take a favorable track for us are Miller b and transfer energy to the coast. Not all, but a lot.

Northern 2/3rds of DTX's CWA has had plenty of Big Dogs over the years. Its the southern 1/3rd that really struggles to put it all together.

[Jackstraw]

See I didn't miss much on my trip. Got back just in time for some flurries Monday lol

[Frog Town]

20 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Northern 2/3rds of DTX's CWA has had plenty of Big Dogs over the years. Its the southern 1/3rd that really struggles to put it all together.

This couldn't be more true.  Southern 1/3 of DTX is in the rip-off zone between cutters and Miller b's..

May be why I get high anxiety is storms even when we have a Winter Storm Warning and 6+ forecasted.  Seem it bust too many times.  

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Northern 2/3rds of DTX's CWA has had plenty of Big Dogs over the years. Its the southern 1/3rd that really struggles to put it all together.

 

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

This couldn't be more true.  Southern 1/3 of DTX is in the rip-off zone between cutters and Miller b's..

May be why I get high anxiety is storms even when we have a Winter Storm Warning and 6+ forecasted.  Seem it bust too many times.  

The southern third of DTX CWA gets plenty of warning criteria snowstorms. Since 2000, DTW has had 46 storms of 6"+ which includes 9 storms of 10"+. Yes only two of those were 12"+ but again, climate. Even areas that do get the occasional big dog (assuming its 18"+? Idk what the threshold is for that since it's a made up term)...its a very rare occurrence. Which is why im baffled at those few who follow a forum of weather enthusiasts when the ONLY thing that satisfies them is an EXTREMELY rare event. 

And Frogtown, I disagree. Being in the crosshairs actually gives us more chances. Again, if all your looking for in weather is a big dog, following actual weather is probably not a hobby for you. I like a good Miller B because those are often good snowstorms for SE MI (W MI not so much). Cutters can cut anywhere from Minneapolis to Buffalo so that's where individual storm track is crucial. And don't worry, there isn't a weenie around who doesnt get anxiety when a warning is issued lol.

[SouthOaklandCtyWX]

22 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Northern 2/3rds of DTX's CWA has had plenty of Big Dogs over the years. Its the southern 1/3rd that really struggles to put it all together.

 

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

This couldn't be more true.  Southern 1/3 of DTX is in the rip-off zone between cutters and Miller b's..

May be why I get high anxiety is storms even when we have a Winter Storm Warning and 6+ forecasted.  Seem it bust too many times.  

Being further north helps but a big part of it is also because of the glacial moraine system. Seems like the cutoff for the “big dog” the past few years has been around M-59 and even more so towards I-696 where elevation drops below 700 feet. I always like watching the webcams at Pine Knob, Alpine Valley, and Mt. Holly, have been several times where it’s snowing on their webcams yet it’s rain/sleet or a dry slot at my place in Royal Oak. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, SouthOaklandCtyWX said:

 

Being further north helps but a big part of it is also because of the glacial moraine system. Seems like the cutoff for the “big dog” the past few years has been around M-59 and even more so towards I-696 where elevation drops below 700 feet. I always like watching the webcams at Pine Knob, Alpine Valley, and Mt. Holly, have been several times where it’s snowing on their webcams yet it’s rain/sleet or a dry slot at my place in Royal Oak. 

Those aren't big dogs though. But that is the huge perks of the m59 north area of especially Oakland County is their elevation and the fact that they will snow when everyone else rains or they will get high ratios ie bigger amounts in borderline temp events.

[SouthOaklandCtyWX]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Those aren't big dogs though. But that is the huge perks of the m59 north area of especially Oakland County is their elevation and the fact that they will snow when everyone else rains or they will get high ratios ie bigger amounts in borderline temp events.

I consider a “big dog” to be at least 12”. That’s just my definition and I feel like that’s been reported more in areas out near the hills in DTX’s CWFA. Obviously storm track plays a major role too and DTW can end up with more snow than DTX if it takes a more southernly Miller B track.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, SouthOaklandCtyWX said:

I consider a “big dog” to be at least 12”. That’s just my definition and I feel like that’s been reported more in areas out near the hills in DTX’s CWFA. Obviously storm track plays a major role too and DTW can end up with more snow than DTX if it takes a more southernly Miller B track.

Thats a good threshold imo. And yes the hills definitely get more. I just dont like this nonsense worrying about 18"+ that some expect. Since records began at DTX office in 1996 there have been 12 storms of 10"+ and DTW has had 10. However of those, 7 were 12"+ at DTX and just 2 at DTW. That said, the biggest at DTX was 15.5" (Nov 2015) and DTW biggest was actually greater (16.7" - Feb 2015).

[SouthOaklandCtyWX]

21 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thats a good threshold imo. And yes the hills definitely get more. I just dont like this nonsense worrying about 18"+ that some expect. Since records began at DTX office in 1996 there have been 12 storms of 10"+ and DTW has had 10. However of those, 7 were 12"+ at DTX and just 2 at DTW. That said, the biggest at DTX was 15.5" (Nov 2015) and DTW biggest was actually greater (16.7" - Feb 2015).

Yeah depending on where you live the bar should be higher or lower, I wouldn’t consider 12” a big dog in the UP or east coast but here in areas outside the snow belts in the great lakes it’s a good benchmark. I wish the DTX office opened sooner because I always wonder what that area got during Detroit’s biggest snowstorms like in April of 1886 and December of 1974.

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thats a good threshold imo. And yes the hills definitely get more. I just dont like this nonsense worrying about 18"+ that some expect. Since records began at DTX office in 1996 there have been 12 storms of 10"+ and DTW has had 10. However of those, 7 were 12"+ at DTX and just 2 at DTW. That said, the biggest at DTX was 15.5" (Nov 2015) and DTW biggest was actually greater (16.7" - Feb 2015).

Thanks for confirming my original post on this. Big Dog's in the Midwest is 15"(+/-) but setting the bar at 12" for DTW is much more realistic. DTX/White Lake/M-59 on north has held its own over the decades with the rest of the MW neighborhood. South of that gets plenty of snowstorms as you've noted, but over history the BD's are much less frequent for that region. As I've said before and you know, I am as much a fan of getting and maintaining a decent snowpack as I am of the larger storms. So far since my relocation here, I've gotten mostly the first and not much of the second. The impending storm is another fine example of that. I realize Harrison is not BD haven, but the way powerhouse storms have been shirking the LP of MIchigan the past 6 winters is getting really annoying. Toronto gets back-2-back BD's and now Yooperland about to do the same. Nothing is taking the sweet-spot track for us - nothing.

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, SouthOaklandCtyWX said:

Yeah depending on where you live the bar should be higher or lower, I wouldn’t consider 12” a big dog in the UP or east coast but here in areas outside the snow belts in the great lakes it’s a good benchmark. I wish the DTX office opened sooner because I always wonder what that area got during Detroit’s biggest snowstorms like in April of 1886 and December of 1974.

Yeah. But its also about climate. The east coast gets way more big dogs but way less snowstorms overall. Completely different climates. I too wish white lake had longer records 

[michsnowfreak]

20 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Thanks for confirming my original post on this. Big Dog's in the Midwest is 15"(+/-) but setting the bar at 12" for DTW is much more realistic. DTX/White Lake/M-59 on north has held its own over the decades with the rest of the MW neighborhood. South of that gets plenty of snowstorms as you've noted, but over history the BD's are much less frequent for that region. As I've said before and you know, I am as much a fan of getting and maintaining a decent snowpack as I am of the larger storms. So far since my relocation here, I've gotten mostly the first and not much of the second. The impending storm is another fine example of that. I realize Harrison is not BD haven, but the way powerhouse storms have been shirking the LP of MIchigan the past 6 winters is getting really annoying. Toronto gets back-2-back BD's and now Yooperland about to do the same. Nothing is taking the sweet-spot track for us - nothing.

Yes this year we've not had any sweet spot tracks. Just accumulated the nickel and dime like a boss per usual. Im antsy for a good 6"+ storm. BTW when did Toronto get 2? Its harder to look up their data since they're Canada. I remember they had 1 within the last few years after some unusually low winters...mother nature always evens it out...I gave the warning years ago that we were gonna pay for our above avg snow seasons here....and I feel we've done that so time to turn it back around. 

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes this year we've not had any sweet spot tracks. Just accumulated the nickel and dime like a boss per usual. Im antsy for a good 6"+ storm. BTW when did Toronto get 2? Its harder to look up their data since they're Canada. I remember they had 1 within the last few years after some unusually low winters...mother nature always evens it out...I gave the warning years ago that we were gonna pay for our above avg snow seasons here....and I feel we've done that so time to turn it back around. 

Check your posts from last Feb. I remember when one of the TOR crew said they had 26" depth you asking if that was the deepest he ever seen? Would be in the thread for the last event for which GRR had me under a Watch, only to cancel it by the next update when it became obv the storm wasn't going to get its act together in time for SWMI. Then even DTX said "miss SE stank" after AFD's were talking crippling bliz for the Thumb. It all ended up hitting TOR.

Oh, and yeah another WWA from my office. Can I redeem 3 of them for Warning?? Going back two years almost, every county around Clare has gotten a Warning. Clare stands alone as the only county without one. On an island here, lol.

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Check your posts from last Feb. I remember when one of the TOR crew said they had 26" depth you asking if that was the deepest he ever seen? Would be in the thread for the last event for which GRR had me under a Watch, only to cancel it by the next update when it became obv the storm wasn't going to get its act together in time for SWMI. Then even DTX said "miss SE stank" after AFD's were talking crippling bliz for the Thumb. It all ended up hitting TOR.

Oh, and yeah another WWA from my office. Can I redeem 3 of them for Warning?? Going back two years almost, every county around Clare has gotten a Warning. Clare stands alone as the only county without one. On an island here, lol.

Now that you bring that up I do remember that about the depth. Couldn't remember if it was from big dogs or just back to back great storms (we spent 2 straight months in 2014 between 14-21" depth with the biggest single storm 11"). Being the climo guy its so easy for me to look up anyone's data in the US, but Canada is way more difficult. I have an environment Canada bookmark, as im other interested in peaking at Windsor or Toronto, but its definitely nowhere near as user friendly as the NWS.

And yeah they hand out advisories like candy in lower MI lol.