Winter 2025/26 Banter Thread

[michsnowfreak]

On 12/24/2025 at 11:36 AM, Frog Town said:

It will always be like this with the mean trough axis over us or to our east, which is pretty much where it's been the last two winters.  Light dusters galore but when the big ones come, we warm up.  Need the mean trough 500 miles to our west which is when we cash in with the big dogs.  But of course, we always run the risk of Miller B's giving the goods to the EC.  Climate..

Ive been a weather observer for 30 years now. We get plenty of all snow systems. The east coast actually gets more mix systems than we do. The pattern right now is super funky but once we flush this out im liking January overall. 

[Stevo6899]

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ive been a weather observer for 30 years now. We get plenty of all snow systems. The east coast actually gets more mix systems than we do. The pattern right now is super funky but once we flush this out im liking January overall. 

The point is a big chunk of the big systems that take a favorable track for us are Miller b and transfer energy to the coast. Not all, but a lot.

[RogueWaves]

10 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

The point is a big chunk of the big systems that take a favorable track for us are Miller b and transfer energy to the coast. Not all, but a lot.

Northern 2/3rds of DTX's CWA has had plenty of Big Dogs over the years. Its the southern 1/3rd that really struggles to put it all together.

[Jackstraw]

See I didn't miss much on my trip. Got back just in time for some flurries Monday lol

[Frog Town]

20 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Northern 2/3rds of DTX's CWA has had plenty of Big Dogs over the years. Its the southern 1/3rd that really struggles to put it all together.

This couldn't be more true.  Southern 1/3 of DTX is in the rip-off zone between cutters and Miller b's..

May be why I get high anxiety is storms even when we have a Winter Storm Warning and 6+ forecasted.  Seem it bust too many times.  

[michsnowfreak]

21 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Northern 2/3rds of DTX's CWA has had plenty of Big Dogs over the years. Its the southern 1/3rd that really struggles to put it all together.

 

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

This couldn't be more true.  Southern 1/3 of DTX is in the rip-off zone between cutters and Miller b's..

May be why I get high anxiety is storms even when we have a Winter Storm Warning and 6+ forecasted.  Seem it bust too many times.  

The southern third of DTX CWA gets plenty of warning criteria snowstorms. Since 2000, DTW has had 46 storms of 6"+ which includes 9 storms of 10"+. Yes only two of those were 12"+ but again, climate. Even areas that do get the occasional big dog (assuming its 18"+? Idk what the threshold is for that since it's a made up term)...its a very rare occurrence. Which is why im baffled at those few who follow a forum of weather enthusiasts when the ONLY thing that satisfies them is an EXTREMELY rare event. 

And Frogtown, I disagree. Being in the crosshairs actually gives us more chances. Again, if all your looking for in weather is a big dog, following actual weather is probably not a hobby for you. I like a good Miller B because those are often good snowstorms for SE MI (W MI not so much). Cutters can cut anywhere from Minneapolis to Buffalo so that's where individual storm track is crucial. And don't worry, there isn't a weenie around who doesnt get anxiety when a warning is issued lol.

[SouthOaklandCtyWX]

22 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Northern 2/3rds of DTX's CWA has had plenty of Big Dogs over the years. Its the southern 1/3rd that really struggles to put it all together.

 

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

This couldn't be more true.  Southern 1/3 of DTX is in the rip-off zone between cutters and Miller b's..

May be why I get high anxiety is storms even when we have a Winter Storm Warning and 6+ forecasted.  Seem it bust too many times.  

Being further north helps but a big part of it is also because of the glacial moraine system. Seems like the cutoff for the “big dog” the past few years has been around M-59 and even more so towards I-696 where elevation drops below 700 feet. I always like watching the webcams at Pine Knob, Alpine Valley, and Mt. Holly, have been several times where it’s snowing on their webcams yet it’s rain/sleet or a dry slot at my place in Royal Oak. 

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, SouthOaklandCtyWX said:

 

Being further north helps but a big part of it is also because of the glacial moraine system. Seems like the cutoff for the “big dog” the past few years has been around M-59 and even more so towards I-696 where elevation drops below 700 feet. I always like watching the webcams at Pine Knob, Alpine Valley, and Mt. Holly, have been several times where it’s snowing on their webcams yet it’s rain/sleet or a dry slot at my place in Royal Oak. 

Those aren't big dogs though. But that is the huge perks of the m59 north area of especially Oakland County is their elevation and the fact that they will snow when everyone else rains or they will get high ratios ie bigger amounts in borderline temp events.

[SouthOaklandCtyWX]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Those aren't big dogs though. But that is the huge perks of the m59 north area of especially Oakland County is their elevation and the fact that they will snow when everyone else rains or they will get high ratios ie bigger amounts in borderline temp events.

I consider a “big dog” to be at least 12”. That’s just my definition and I feel like that’s been reported more in areas out near the hills in DTX’s CWFA. Obviously storm track plays a major role too and DTW can end up with more snow than DTX if it takes a more southernly Miller B track.

[michsnowfreak]

2 minutes ago, SouthOaklandCtyWX said:

I consider a “big dog” to be at least 12”. That’s just my definition and I feel like that’s been reported more in areas out near the hills in DTX’s CWFA. Obviously storm track plays a major role too and DTW can end up with more snow than DTX if it takes a more southernly Miller B track.

Thats a good threshold imo. And yes the hills definitely get more. I just dont like this nonsense worrying about 18"+ that some expect. Since records began at DTX office in 1996 there have been 12 storms of 10"+ and DTW has had 10. However of those, 7 were 12"+ at DTX and just 2 at DTW. That said, the biggest at DTX was 15.5" (Nov 2015) and DTW biggest was actually greater (16.7" - Feb 2015).