Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Rd9108]

23 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Suspect he's jumping the gun a bit. This is what the GFS shows for the morning of the 16th:

We shouldn't be taking model runs that are 10 days out seriously. EPS shows cold weather returning and the GEFS isnt nearly as torchy as the OP

[EVLINC64]

13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

We shouldn't be taking model runs that are 10 days out seriously. EPS shows cold weather returning and the GEFS isnt nearly as torchy as the OP

Some are Model Huggers 

[CoraopolisWx]

IMHO, the biggest threat locally will be potential landslides over the next few weeks. 
Winter soil combined with above average rainfall and mild temps could be a problem. 

[EVLINC64]

52 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

IMHO, the biggest threat locally will be potential landslides over the next few weeks. 
Winter soil combined with above average rainfall and mild temps could be a problem. 

https://x.com/i/status/2029008024090595329  UMMMMMMMM

[TimB]

Wow highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and September equivalent sun angle. I’m pumped for winter’s last ride.

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Wow highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and September equivalent sun angle. I’m pumped for winter’s last ride.

It can still snow in May here. I get that ot doesnt stick around though. 

[north pgh]

Looking forward to some possible thunderstorms overnight and tomorrow.


.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

9 hours ago, TimB said:

Wow highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and September equivalent sun angle. I’m pumped for winter’s last ride.

 I mean if you are expecting consecutive days of highs in the 20s and sustained snowpack yeah, not happening. I think the point is after the warm-up there is a window for a storm to coincide with the colder than average temperatures. All you need is it to be just cold enough and get a dynamic storm with heavy snow and it won't matter if the ground is warm, it was 70 the day before, or the sun angle.  Is it likely? No. Is it my preferred type of Winter weather? No. However, any forecaster worth an ounce of salt would be remiss to at least not discuss the fact Winter may have one more trick up its sleeve before Spring really sets in.

[SteelCity87]

16 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

 I mean if you are expecting consecutive days of highs in the 20s and sustained snowpack yeah, not happening. I think the point is after the warm-up there is a window for a storm to coincide with the colder than average temperatures. All you need is it to be just cold enough and get a dynamic storm with heavy snow and it won't matter if the ground is warm, it was 70 the day before, or the sun angle.  Is it likely? No. Is it my preferred type of Winter weather? No. However, any forecaster worth an ounce of salt would be remiss to at least not discuss the fact Winter may have one more trick up its sleeve before Spring really sets in.

I always think of 2018 March storm. Second half of the month and we still managed 10.5" despite it all. One of my favorite storms. March 2011 was another but that was extremely heavy. Believe we got 8" or so in about 4 or 5 hours. 

[TimB]

12 hours ago, SteelCity87 said:

I always think of 2018 March storm. Second half of the month and we still managed 10.5" despite it all. One of my favorite storms. March 2011 was another but that was extremely heavy. Believe we got 8" or so in about 4 or 5 hours. 

You sure you’re not thinking about 2022?

[colonel717]

https://x.com/judah47/status/2029596864182452288

Judah Cohen

 

@judah47

 

 

I can't emphasize this enough. Yes a #PolarVortex (PV) split happened but the predicted #cold for 3rd week of March in Eastern US isn't related to the classical downward influence. Instead it's our familiar friend the PV stretch, textbook looking at 100mb, NAO is raging positive!

[TimB]

Awesome, I’m sure that translates to copious amounts of snow on the models and ensembles. Let me go check!

[Rd9108]

Before we deal with winter weather again possibly we have some severe weather to deal with.

[Rd9108]

Btw who remembers this storm. Happened in mid March 

[TimB]

If you throw out those two erroneous data points, the highest dewpoint ever observed at PIT prior to March 15th was 61 on 1/8/1998. We could be reaching levels of humidity on Saturday that are unprecedented so early in the season.

[Ahoff]

On 3/4/2026 at 8:51 AM, RitualOfTheTrout said:

 I mean if you are expecting consecutive days of highs in the 20s and sustained snowpack yeah, not happening. I think the point is after the warm-up there is a window for a storm to coincide with the colder than average temperatures. All you need is it to be just cold enough and get a dynamic storm with heavy snow and it won't matter if the ground is warm, it was 70 the day before, or the sun angle.  Is it likely? No. Is it my preferred type of Winter weather? No. However, any forecaster worth an ounce of salt would be remiss to at least not discuss the fact Winter may have one more trick up its sleeve before Spring really sets in.

Yeah, I mean what do people want in March?  Like we had a real true winter this year, by the time we get to March you can't expect what we had in January.

[EVLINC64]

9 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, I mean what do people want in March?  Like we had a real true winter this year, by the time we get to March you can't expect what we had in January.

Called Trolling

[Ahoff]

35 minutes ago, EVLINC64 said:

Called Trolling

I tend to think some here truly want exactly what we had in January in March.  They're just being unreasonable, lol.

[EVLINC64]

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

11m

 

 

12z continues to put the Arctic hammer down for St Patricks day. Its May in the next few days in areas that will likely. be average for mid-winter for St Pattys day

[Rd9108]

7 minutes ago, EVLINC64 said:

The American Storm

 

@BigJoeBastardi

·

11m

 

 

12z continues to put the Arctic hammer down for St Patricks day. Its May in the next few days in areas that will likely. be average for mid-winter for St Pattys day

Euro is showing some impressive temps for March. See if this signal continues into next week. Still 10 days away.

[SteelCity87]

On 3/5/2026 at 1:53 PM, TimB said:

You sure you’re not thinking about 2022?

Yes. That storm was similar though. I actually forgot that was in March until now. For some reason thought it was a February storm. 

[Voyager]

23 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro is showing some impressive temps for March. See if this signal continues into next week. Still 10 days away.

Who the hell wants that kind of cold in late March? That's like wanting 100+ in late September.

[Rd9108]

16 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Who the hell wants that kind of cold in late March? That's like wanting 100+ in late September.

Im going down to Florida March 23rd so as long as its warm there idc what it is here. I agree though once we get to the end of March Im over snow. Although ill cheer on a heavy thump if it happens 

[RitualOfTheTrout]

53 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Who the hell wants that kind of cold in late March? That's like wanting 100+ in late September.

Time it with a big snow storm and Ill take it, otherwise yeah, save it til December.

It also looks to be pretty short lived, warmth probably starts rebuilding a few days after. If it falls through I don't think many will be upset.

[TheClimateChanger]

What's the severe weather risk look like us tomorrow? I wasn't given it to much thought until I saw this storm in Michigan which has to be EF3+.

 

[north pgh]

I guessing a good chance of a tornado watch this afternoon 

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, north pgh said:

I guessing a good chance of a tornado watch this afternoon 

Its hot and sunny out 

[Mailman]

 

Mesoscale Discussion 0167
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1157 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Ohio...northwestern West Virginia...western
   Pennsylvania...southwestern New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 071757Z - 072000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development may become capable
   of producing marginally severe hail, increasing risk for damaging
   wind gusts and perhaps accompanied by potential for a couple of
   tornadoes by 3-5 PM EST.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer layer moisture return across the upper
   Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region is ongoing, but remains
   somewhat modest with surface dew points increasing through the
   mid/upper 50s.  However warming and mixing with continuing
   insolation is contributing to steepening low-level lapse rates and
   thermodynamic profiles with weak to modest CAPE increasing in excess
   of 500 J/kg, beneath southwesterly deep-layer mean ambient flow
   increasing to near 50 kt.  

   Deepening convective development now appears underway along and
   discretely ahead of a convectively generated pre-cold frontal
   surface boundary now advancing across central into eastern Ohio.  As
   this continues into the Allegheny Plateau through 21-22Z, developing
   thunderstorm activity appears likely to intensify and organize. 
   This may include a few evolving supercell structures within and
   ahead of an evolving line, accompanied by a risk for severe hail and
   damaging wind gusts.  

   With surface winds generally veered to a fairly prominent westerly
   component, the degree to which low-level hodographs will become
   supportive of tornadic potential remains unclear, particularly given
   the still sizable boundary-layer temperature/dew point spreads. 
   However, as 850 mb winds strengthen to 50+ kt across eastern Ohio
   into western Pennsylvania, various model derived output suggests
   that profiles could become locally conducive to a supercell tornado
   threat by late afternoon.

   ..Kerr/Guyer.. 03/07/2026

[meatwad]

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 25
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   125 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Western New York
     Eastern and Southern Ohio
     Western Pennsylvania
     Northern West Virginia

   * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 125 PM until
     800 PM EST.

   * Primary threats include...
     A few tornadoes possible
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop and intensify this
   afternoon across the region, with conditions supportive of
   supercells and fast-moving severe storms capable of damaging winds
   and tornadoes.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 30 miles south of Athens OH to 30 miles
   north of Bradford PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the
   associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...WW 24...

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean
   storm motion vector 25040.

   ...Guyer

 

[MikeB_01]

Certainly doesn’t feel like March 7 outside. But I’ll take the late May preview.


.