Pittsburgh/Western PA WINTER ‘25/‘26

[Rd9108]

23 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Suspect he's jumping the gun a bit. This is what the GFS shows for the morning of the 16th:

We shouldn't be taking model runs that are 10 days out seriously. EPS shows cold weather returning and the GEFS isnt nearly as torchy as the OP

[EVLINC64]

13 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

We shouldn't be taking model runs that are 10 days out seriously. EPS shows cold weather returning and the GEFS isnt nearly as torchy as the OP

Some are Model Huggers 

[CoraopolisWx]

IMHO, the biggest threat locally will be potential landslides over the next few weeks. 
Winter soil combined with above average rainfall and mild temps could be a problem. 

[EVLINC64]

52 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

IMHO, the biggest threat locally will be potential landslides over the next few weeks. 
Winter soil combined with above average rainfall and mild temps could be a problem. 

https://x.com/i/status/2029008024090595329  UMMMMMMMM

[TimB]

Wow highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and September equivalent sun angle. I’m pumped for winter’s last ride.

[Rd9108]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

Wow highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and September equivalent sun angle. I’m pumped for winter’s last ride.

It can still snow in May here. I get that ot doesnt stick around though. 

[north pgh]

Looking forward to some possible thunderstorms overnight and tomorrow.


.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

9 hours ago, TimB said:

Wow highs in the upper 30s to low 40s and September equivalent sun angle. I’m pumped for winter’s last ride.

 I mean if you are expecting consecutive days of highs in the 20s and sustained snowpack yeah, not happening. I think the point is after the warm-up there is a window for a storm to coincide with the colder than average temperatures. All you need is it to be just cold enough and get a dynamic storm with heavy snow and it won't matter if the ground is warm, it was 70 the day before, or the sun angle.  Is it likely? No. Is it my preferred type of Winter weather? No. However, any forecaster worth an ounce of salt would be remiss to at least not discuss the fact Winter may have one more trick up its sleeve before Spring really sets in.

[SteelCity87]

16 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

 I mean if you are expecting consecutive days of highs in the 20s and sustained snowpack yeah, not happening. I think the point is after the warm-up there is a window for a storm to coincide with the colder than average temperatures. All you need is it to be just cold enough and get a dynamic storm with heavy snow and it won't matter if the ground is warm, it was 70 the day before, or the sun angle.  Is it likely? No. Is it my preferred type of Winter weather? No. However, any forecaster worth an ounce of salt would be remiss to at least not discuss the fact Winter may have one more trick up its sleeve before Spring really sets in.

I always think of 2018 March storm. Second half of the month and we still managed 10.5" despite it all. One of my favorite storms. March 2011 was another but that was extremely heavy. Believe we got 8" or so in about 4 or 5 hours. 

[TimB]

12 hours ago, SteelCity87 said:

I always think of 2018 March storm. Second half of the month and we still managed 10.5" despite it all. One of my favorite storms. March 2011 was another but that was extremely heavy. Believe we got 8" or so in about 4 or 5 hours. 

You sure you’re not thinking about 2022?

[colonel717]

https://x.com/judah47/status/2029596864182452288

Judah Cohen

 

@judah47

 

 

I can't emphasize this enough. Yes a #PolarVortex (PV) split happened but the predicted #cold for 3rd week of March in Eastern US isn't related to the classical downward influence. Instead it's our familiar friend the PV stretch, textbook looking at 100mb, NAO is raging positive!

[TimB]

Awesome, I’m sure that translates to copious amounts of snow on the models and ensembles. Let me go check!

[Rd9108]

Before we deal with winter weather again possibly we have some severe weather to deal with.

[Rd9108]

Btw who remembers this storm. Happened in mid March 

[TimB]

If you throw out those two erroneous data points, the highest dewpoint ever observed at PIT prior to March 15th was 61 on 1/8/1998. We could be reaching levels of humidity on Saturday that are unprecedented so early in the season.