E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Duca892]

Eric Webb seems to think the AI’s shifted toward OP for the suppression idea 

[Franklin0529]

I can see this ending up a dc to Boston blizzard. The highs are usually overdone

[Ralph Wiggum]

One trend past 24 hrs i do like, the strong 1052 arctic hp isnt showing nearly that strength and is ~1044mb highest i could find across guidance at 12z. Not surprising that it probably won't be as strong as depicted 6 days out.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

I can see this ending up a dc to Boston blizzard. The highs are usually overdone

Alot depends on the ull out over the baja. Some models move it out quickly in 1 piece ans phase it, others are slower and eject it in waves. 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

One trend past 24 hrs i do like, the strong 1052 arctic hp isnt showing nearly that strength and is ~1044mb highest i could find across guidance at 12z. Not surprising that it probably won't be as strong as depicted 6 days out.

I think that'll be good for both our subs...because a weakee high would lessen suppression risk, right?

[Duca892]

Welp 18z GFS rolling… here is to hoping for a northern trend 

[yankeex777]

1 hour ago, Prairie Dog said:

IF it's right, you will have a prolonged vacation   Major disruption of air travel  Airports will fall like domino's  Good luck   

Ooof I’m hoping it delays like 12 hours. lol  id love to get home before all the action starts

[Prairie Dog]

6 minutes ago, yankeex777 said:

Ooof I’m hoping it delays like 12 hours. lol  id love to get home before all the action starts

I would attempt a Friday flight home  Don't know where you are  But that's me.  Of course it's your call.   Easier if you are flying solo.   I hate sleeping in a airport

[Ralph Wiggum]

AI is wayyy south. Suppression is a very major concern. 

[Duca892]

I mean… with the horrific trends south today… is it too early to toss the towel when even ENS aren’t in your camp?

[Ralph Wiggum]

18z gfs is another 2-4" event to pad our seasonal stats.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I mean… with the horrific trends south today… is it too early to toss the towel when even ENS aren’t in your camp?

What came south?

[yankeex777]

25 minutes ago, Prairie Dog said:

I would attempt a Friday flight home  Don't know where you are  But that's me.  Of course it's your call.   Easier if you are flying solo.   I hate sleeping in a airport

lol I’m on a cruise out of Miami. I got no choice but to fly back Sunday morning

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

What came south?

Ai gfs

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ai gfs

Thats it while the other models came north

[Violentweatherfan]

Maybe we should make a thread, all other sub forums did

[Mikeymac5306]

2 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Maybe we should make a thread, all other sub forums did

 

[Mikeymac5306]

In all seriousness, at least we'll wait for the NAM to get in range before considering a thread on here.  Lot of details still need to get locked in.