E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Heisy]

Me after seeing the overnight runs 

That’s how I felt after waking up, but looking at 6z data I wouldn’t be shocked if we see some pretty good improvements at 12z runs. Not going to see a 3’ event like yesterday’s cmc but a SECS is on the table especially in DE and S NJ

[Duca892]

Someone (who you can't name because the forum will explode) gave sound reasoning as to why this might not happen and welp lmfao.

 

That being said there is tons of time yet. Hopefully this is one of those scenarios where it was lost on modeling and gets brought back. 

[Blue Dream]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That’s how I felt after waking up, but looking at 6z data I wouldn’t be shocked if we see some pretty good improvements at 12z runs. Not going to see a 3’ event like yesterday’s cmc but a SECS is on the table especially in DE and S NJ

Yeah I agree...just feel like we need heavy rates or we risk it being white rain

[ChescoWx]

Both the Euro and GFS and Euro AI ensembles all had snow totals tick up a bit from 6z vs 0z. With some adds on the southern flank.

[ChescoWx]

[Hurricane Agnes]

1 hour ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Actually you want the MJO to be in phase 8 or phase 1. 

Yup and it was there for the last couple storms but not now!

 

 

Plus you have -

 

 

[ChescoWx]

Fog should slowly diminish later this morning. We should see some light rain across especially for spots north of the PA Turnpike this afternoon. Rain amounts look light with most spots less than 0.15". Today’s temperatures will be in the low 40's just about average for the date. Rain chances to ramp up again tomorrow night and especially Friday with more significant rain expected. Snow chances look to increase by Sunday but way too early to nail down specifics.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:

Both the Euro and GFS and Euro AI ensembles all had snow totals tick up a bit from 6z vs 0z. With some adds on the southern flank.

I was somewhat surprised at how big of a jump the EPS made also. 

[Heisy]

I was somewhat surprised at how big of a jump the EPS made also. 

The euro op was really close to a significant event for all of us and it was a lot flatter vs 6z rgem/ukie.

Just as I had a bad feeling about 00z runs, I have a sneaking suspicion we’re about to have a fun 12z suite

[anthonyweather]

Fog should slowly diminish later this morning. We should see some light rain across especially for spots north of the PA Turnpike this afternoon. Rain amounts look light with most spots less than 0.15". Today’s temperatures will be in the low 40's just about average for the date. Rain chances to ramp up again tomorrow night and especially Friday with more significant rain expected. Snow chances look to increase by Sunday but way too early to nail down specifics.

Who are you forecasting to?


.

[MickeyTim6533]

25 minutes ago, Heisy said:

The euro op was really close to a significant event for all of us and it was a lot flatter vs 6z rgem/ukie.

Just as I had a bad feeling about 00z runs, I have a sneaking suspicion we’re about to have a fun 12z suite

are you seeing anything that makes you think that?

[Newman]

I know models all shifted east overnight, which remains the fail mode, but we're not out of this by any means with lots of time left. We need to see improvements in the wave spacing between that system that exits CNE Friday/Saturday and our NS wave diving out of the Dakotas/MN. Pump the ridge more, inch it further west, and I think we can get that shortwave energy to round the trough enough for at least coastal areas. I'll be honest though, this setup now reminds me of last February's fail which ended up way suppressed and OTS. It has powder keg potential, but probably a lot lower probability from what we saw in previous days 

[Duca892]

26 Minutes until the next biggest 12z GFS run of the season 

[JTA66]

Looking back to autumn, and I would never draw any long-term conclusions based on a single storm, but....

It's interesting how the modeled "nor'easter" of 10/12 turned into a non-event in these parts. Yes, the shore got hit and experienced heavy beach erosion. But that storm seems to have tipped winter's hand -- big, wrapped up storm modeled in the LR only to become less impactful as we move up to game time.

[MickeyTim6533]

17 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

26 Minutes until the next biggest 12z GFS run of the season 

apparenlty the ICON is really trying hard

[MickeyTim6533]

apparently RGEM is good as well. maybe we are back today

[Birds~69]

14 hours ago, Albedoman said:

 we are all optimists not pessimists. Go post on his page and rave to your hearts content about how great this guy is. His forecasting is like walking with two left feet and trying tie his shoe laces with no thumbs. Hopeless

 

Bid DT fan I see?

DT guy?

*Seriously, he's wishy-washy at best...

35F/Cloudy

 

 

[Newman]

GFS is going to be significantly improved

[Duca892]

GFS definitely better still kicks out ENE with the coastal at 120

[MickeyTim6533]

CMC coming in hot

[MickeyTim6533]

maybe too far south for major for our area, but better

 

[Duca892]

Have to wonder if the models keep trending back to earlier solutions at this point. CMC was a massive shift west

[Newman]

Yeah Canadian is also much better. I don't like this setup because it's inherently volatile and dependent on getting the trough to tilt negative at just the right time. The ridge being through Montana and not Idaho could be the difference between a NW of I-95 storm or a SE of I-95 storm. Obviously lots of time to track and I think the entire subforum is still well in the game!

[Blue Dream]

2 hours ago, Heisy said:

The euro op was really close to a significant event for all of us and it was a lot flatter vs 6z rgem/ukie.

Just as I had a bad feeling about 00z runs, I have a sneaking suspicion we’re about to have a fun 12z suite

You were right so far man...now what's your suspicion for 18z lol?

[mattinpa]

7 minutes ago, Newman said:

Yeah Canadian is also much better. I don't like this setup because it's inherently volatile and dependent on getting the trough to tilt negative at just the right time. The ridge being through Montana and not Idaho could be the difference between a NW of I-95 storm or a SE of I-95 storm. Obviously lots of time to track and I think the entire subforum is still well in the game!

Agree, as long as we keep expectations in check with this setup it will be fun to track. 

[LVblizzard]

38 minutes ago, Newman said:

Yeah Canadian is also much better. I don't like this setup because it's inherently volatile and dependent on getting the trough to tilt negative at just the right time. The ridge being through Montana and not Idaho could be the difference between a NW of I-95 storm or a SE of I-95 storm. Obviously lots of time to track and I think the entire subforum is still well in the game!

We also need Friday’s storm to get out of the way to allow heights to rise on the east coast. Otherwise even a very amplified system is staying mostly south of PA.

[Violentweatherfan]

4 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Yup and it was there for the last couple storms but not now!

 

 

Plus you have -

 

 

We do get snow when the MJO is in phase 4 or phase 5 but nothing of significance. Our first snow this season, the one that was a “two-part” system kinda over performed. Those totals where what 6” tops. So when models are spitting out 12” inch totals or more, you have to be careful with expectations 

[MickeyTim6533]

euro not great