E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Heisy]

At least one positive, the Ai has the clipper for the 20th that the 12z euro had. Then again, this point of the season it’s big dog or nothing for me lol

[Mikeymac5306]

Doesn't matter for us, but that's a pretty awesome looking blizzard setting up for Minnesota and Wisconsin next Friday on the GFS followed by a fantasy I don't know what the hell it is. 

[Heisy]

Interesting, last night cmc parallel is very close to this mornings 6z euro run. They attempt a late phase of the northern stream. It’s not a clean phase but enough to pull in moisture to the region

[ChescoWx]

Here in the philly burbs of Chester County 3 stations set a new record for consecutive days below freezing at 17 days through yesterday. The old record was set way back in 1961.

[ChescoWx]

 

You think it's been a cold start to February? You are correct! Here in Chester County PA with data back to 1893 this is the 3rd coldest on record as only 1895 (11.2 avg. temp) and 1905 (18.4) were colder. We finally see most spots getting above freezing today but still at least 5 degrees below normal levels. Tomorrow will be our warmest day of the work week with highs well into the 30's. We turn colder again to close out the week, and we could see some snow arrive or Sunday with a likely change to rain by Monday.

 

[Chadzachadam]

4th longest-lasting 5" snow pack ever recorded at PHL, but the top 3 all included refresher snows. Pretty memorable stretch of weather. Here in the city I think most everyone is ready for the sidewalks and streets to be clear again. I wouldn't mind a quick reset and then another solid storm, if for nothing else than to have a second chance to shovel all the areas in my neighborhood that it's become abundantly clear nobody else is ever going to shovel

[Duca892]

Most important 12z GFS run ever 

[MickeyTim6533]

Just now, Duca892 said:

Most important 12z GFS run ever 

[MickeyTim6533]

hearing icon is suppressed

 

[MickeyTim6533]

close to a phase though

 

[MickeyTim6533]

GFS suppressed

[No Snow Flo]

No Sno Flo says out to sea this one goes!

[MickeyTim6533]

9 minutes ago, No Snow Flo said:

No Sno Flo says out to sea this one goes!

cmc says otherwise

[MickeyTim6533]

10 minutes ago, No Snow Flo said:

No Sno Flo says out to sea this one goes!

[zenmsav6810]

2 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

Just an etiquette tip: try not post repeatedly. A good strategy is to combine comments about a model suite run all in one entry. 

[MickeyTim6533]

Euro AI wayyyyy south

[RedSky]

Euro family well south chalk up another to the drought

mby .20" snow since January 25th is going the distance can I make it a month

Average more snow in November and April lol

 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I see a possible event on the 24th/25th. If that doesn't hit, then it's probably lights out for the winter. The first half of March looks very warm.

[anthonyweather]

WWA up. Might be the last winter weather alert for the season at this rate


.

[MickeyTim6533]

MU on the upcoming weekend:

 During the second half of the weekend, there has been more unwarranted "hype" in recent days regarding a potential winter storm. The odds of that actually happening are very low. Instead, a developing storm system over the southern Plains on Saturday will likely track due east through Sunday and exit into the Atlantic somewhere between South Carolina and northern Florida. Either way, that's too far south for any precipitation to reach northern MD or southern PA, and Sunday will likely just turn out partly-to-mostly cloudy and dry with highs in the 40s. Behind the system, early next week should turn out equally as nice with mostly sunny skies accompanying an even bigger moderating trend. Essentially, the weather is going to be a "snoozefest" for at least the next week, and our moderate-to-extreme drought conditions are only going to worsen.

[dssbss]

58 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

WWA up. Might be the last winter weather alert for the season at this rate


I'd be surprised if we see much as far south at Reading.

 

[RedSky]

Current depth still 9.5"

amazing

 

 

[JTA66]

Hope we get a good inversion before the snow melts. I love pea soup fog!

[LVblizzard]

If this is it for prolonged cold and lots of snow chances, I’m glad we had a front loaded winter for once. I’m fine with an early spring with the kind of winter we had in December and January.

[Birds~69]

19 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

If this is it for prolonged cold and lots of snow chances, I’m glad we had a front loaded winter for once. I’m fine with an early spring with the kind of winter we had in December and January.

I'll give you that and gives time for snow to stick around like this year. Back-end winters suck.

No early Spring for me. Keep temps below normal for as long possible...

34F

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, LVblizzard said:

If this is it for prolonged cold and lots of snow chances, I’m glad we had a front loaded winter for once. I’m fine with an early spring with the kind of winter we had in December and January.

This really isn't a frontloaded winter. Our biggest storm was on January 25, and our coldest air of the season went into February. When I think of a frontloaded winter, the cold and snow comes in November and December, and the worst is out by January 15 at the latest. 1989-90 is one that comes to mind.

[RedSky]

New information the SSWE has delayed until mid month. This development could help warm things up with the MJO late month and in early March but be a delayed but not denied situation bringing cold back mid March.

 

[RedSky]

0z euro with a paste bomb Monday

[LVblizzard]

Just when it looked like all hope was lost, the Euro comes in with a significant storm for Sunday night. Widespread 12-16” of snow north and west of Philly.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

Just when it looked like all hope was lost, the Euro comes in with a significant storm for Sunday night. Widespread 12-16” of snow north and west of Philly.

Aifs ensembles way north