E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Paging @donsutherland1 

The last time in Philadelphia was 2009-2010.

[JTA66]

7 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

0z GFS is bone cold from start to finish. I think I saw Kdyl hits 34 at one point otherwise below freezing with several 0 to sub 0 frames. Dont care if this cold is "wasted". When was the last time we had a run of cold quite like this?

Bone chilling cold, throw in a few car-toppers to keep refreshing the snow pack and let's wrap it up with an Archambault event when the pattern breaks down. Where do I sign?

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Bone chilling cold, throw in a few car-toppers to keep refreshing the snow pack and let's wrap it up with an Archambault event when the pattern breaks down. Where do I sign?

Its funny to see the pattern breakdown keeps getting can-kicked. Yet, no weenie will ever speak about it...only when we r in a shit the blinds pattern and the switch to a good pattern gets delayed. This is all  covered somewhere in the weenie handbook in fine print.

[ChescoWx]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Paging @donsutherland1 

I will work that up for at least the philly burbs of Chester County - stay tuned!

[mattinpa]

2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

The last time in Philadelphia was 2009-2010.

Thanks! I also wanted to know.

[ChescoWx]

It looks like all stations across the area remained in the single digits above zero with Warwick Twp. our normal cold spot at 2.0 above and of note here in East Nantmeal our low this AM was 3.3 above - this is my coldest reading here since the 3.0 degrees last January 22nd. Today and tonight looks to be a couple of degrees colder than yesterday. We stay in the teens for highs both today and tomorrow before we finally crack the 20-degree mark on Sunday. We see a slight moderating trend through the middle of next week with highs possibly approaching 30 degrees by Tuesday. We could see some snow chances by next Wednesday into Wednesday night. We may turn even colder again by next weekend. The long-range models continue to think while we might get close for a couple of days....they have no days reaching the 32-degree mark through at least mid-February!

[ChescoWx]

So, with just 2 days left in the month I did a quick analysis to put into perspective how cold these first 2 months of the winter season have been across the Philly burbs of Chester County. This January is on pace to be a top 26 all-time cold January across 133 years of climate data since 1893. It is also our coldest first month of the year since 2014 It will also be a Top 20 all-time cold December/January start to winter. Plus, our coldest start to winter since 2010-11.

[MGorse]

12 hours ago, The Iceman said:

It’s seems like Mt Holly leans pretty heavily on the NBM based on the grids and afd’s, I could totally be wrong though and totally expect @MGorseto correct me if that’s the case 

We are required to use the NBM for the official NWS forecast. Through collaboration though we can edit that if it is significant enough. It is quite the touchy new policy that many are not happy with. It basically adds more work than saving time as we were told it would. NBM has its flaws plus it always lags behind at least one model cycle. 

[MickeyTim6533]

It's like a Morgue in here, looks to me like there is a few chances on the 6z GFS?