E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Mikeymac5306]

Again. baby steps.  I don't think a drastic move was what everyone expected but looks like we're heading in the right direction.  Good step tonight. 

 

See you in the morning. 

 

[coastal front]

18z euro and eps was a huge improvement. Shows you how the smallest changes in tilt and timing have large differences in outcomes. Tilting a closed low 6 hours sooner while being 100+ hours out is not alot to ask. We love to see another day .


.

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 hours ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

guys, take a break, I know I m getting killed here, but this one just isn't meant to be. that's ok. next one will get us

 

11 hours ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

I am as frustrated as anyone. sometimes this is how it goes

 

2 hours ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

yep, how much longer until we give up?

 

[Voyager]

He's just as annoying over in the Central PA forum as well.

[KYWSchoolClosings4ever]

First, I wanted to thank you all for all of the discussion and education over the years. I’ve been a lurker for a LONG time dating back over multiple sites and while I still only understand like 25% of what you are all saying, you ALWAYS make me look good with friends, families and coworkers thanks to the forecasts I get from reading. 
 

Second, I can’t get the phrase “once in a lifetime storm” out of my head. 
 

Third, and the reason I had to post, was to say that in all of my decades spent online in sports forums and message boards, I don’t think I’ve ever come across a more annoying poster with a worse string of posts in 24 hours than what I have read today from Mickeytime. Thank you to the person who gives it a poop each time. Just brutal. 

[Duca892]

The 18z’s were enough to get me to keep An eye on it for 0z, but we need pretty drastic shifts west for the next few runs for SEPA

[Ralph Wiggum]

20 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

The 18z’s were enough to get me to keep An eye on it for 0z, but we need pretty drastic shifts west for the next few runs for SEPA

For a direct hit yes, there would need to be changes soon. But i think we can eek a minor grazing event out of this in extreme SE PA at the very least.

[The Iceman]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

For a direct hit yes, there would need to be changes soon. But i think we can eek a minor grazing event out of this in extreme SE PA at the very least.

Absolutely i can easily at the very least see this being a little 1-3/2-4” refresher as we get grazed like how the gfs is right now….

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Absolutely i can easily at the very least see this being a little 1-3/2-4” refresher as we get grazed like how the gfs is right now….

If I can squeeze out a 2-4" event, I likely go over our seasonal avg (im just over 30" now iirc kdyl avg is 32ish"). 

[Violentweatherfan]

Anyone needs a break in between the models these guys are pretty good.

 

[Violentweatherfan]

14 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Absolutely i can easily at the very least see this being a little 1-3/2-4” refresher as we get grazed like how the gfs is right now….

 

5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If I can squeeze out a 2-4" event, I likely go over our seasonal avg (im just over 30" now iirc kdyl avg is 32ish"). 

Oh come on, the both of you aren’t fooling anyone. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Google's WeatherNext 2.0 model, which powers current Search and Pixel weather results, indicates a high probability of a major winter storm for Philadelphia this weekend, January 31–February 1, 2026.

Forecast Highlights

 * Timing: Snow is expected to begin late Saturday night, peaking Sunday morning.

 * Accumulation: Estimates range from 8 to 12 inches, with some scenarios suggesting up to 18 inches if the storm holds its northern track.

 * Conditions: High-intensity snowfall (1–2 inches per hour) is likely Sunday morning, potentially transitioning to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain by Sunday afternoon.

 * Impact: Expect dangerous travel conditions and bitter cold following the storm, with wind chills dropping near or below zero.

 

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Google's WeatherNext 2.0 model, which powers current Search and Pixel weather results, indicates a high probability of a major winter storm for Philadelphia this weekend, January 31–February 1, 2026.

Forecast Highlights

 * Timing: Snow is expected to begin late Saturday night, peaking Sunday morning.

 * Accumulation: Estimates range from 8 to 12 inches, with some scenarios suggesting up to 18 inches if the storm holds its northern track.

 * Conditions: High-intensity snowfall (1–2 inches per hour) is likely Sunday morning, potentially transitioning to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain by Sunday afternoon.

 * Impact: Expect dangerous travel conditions and bitter cold following the storm, with wind chills dropping near or below zero.

 

potentially transitioning to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain by Sunday afternoon.>>>> see if the NAM agrees here comes the warm tongue again!

This would also indicate a strong easterly flow and the storm is quite close to our south and very strong.