E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, Fields27 said:

Well if there is any model I'd feel confident leading the way it's the Euro.

Also where the hell would we go with all the snow?! My god that would shut down the entire northeast. All good problems BTW.

Strap in!

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This would cause this biggest G dam flood and end in chance of a drought for a year. 96 all over again.  I am done with snow for awhile.  A federal disaster would have to be issued and the resulting melt and thaw with any rain over a couple of  inches would blow out every fricking bridge on the Delaware. 

Next big worrk folks other than this BS run of the Euro,  ice jams.  The base flows are low in the streams, nearly 2ft of snow on the ground north of  S Mtn and 3-5 days of below zero weather and highs not even cracking 26 degrees.  The Delaware, Lehigh and especially the Susquehanna are frozen over now or close to it.  The media is going to go crazy. I did not say Schulkill because the cooling waters from the industrial treatments plants from Limerick ,Oaks and Reading may keep the water warm enough in that river from freezing over.

[dseagull]

40 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

This would cause this biggest G dam flood and end in chance of a drought for a year. 96 all over again.  I am done with snow for awhile.  A federal disaster would have to be issued and the resulting melt and thaw with any rain over a couple of  inches would blow out every fricking bridge on the Delaware. 

Next big worrk folks other than this BS run of the Euro,  ice jams.  The base flows are low in the streams, nearly 2ft of snow on the ground north of  S Mtn and 3-5 days of below zero weather and highs not even cracking 26 degrees.  The Delaware, Lehigh and especially the Susquehanna are frozen over now or close to it.  The media is going to go crazy. I did not say Schulkill because the cooling waters from the industrial treatments plants from Limerick ,Oaks and Reading may keep the water warm enough in that river from freezing over.

As depicted, the next two weeks would be pretty memorable.   Will be plenty of tracking ahead, but will begin taking runs seriously only if they are all onboard come Wednesday afternoon.  

[Heisy]

6z euro Ai is a massive hit

OP rolling now


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[Newman]

Wow, just wow. The Euro suite last night and now this morning is a beaut. 24-36 hour storm for many. 970s mb bomb parked right off the Delmarva. CCB just cranks

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Newman said:

Wow, just wow. The Euro suite last night and now this morning is a beaut. 24-36 hour storm for many. 970s mb bomb parked right off the Delmarva. CCB just cranks

Insanity 

[Heisy]

6z euro, someone pinch me, wake me up lol


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[Duca892]

Like that’s not 10 days out, it’s not even 7 days out, that is literally like 140hrs out lmfao. 12z suite will be interesting to see if anything else trends it closer to the euro

[Ralph Wiggum]

Eps for Feb 1:

[MJO812]

6z eps more west with coastal

[Heisy]

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[Heisy]

6z eps more west with coastal

Can you post 00z comparison


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[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Can you post 00z comparison


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[JTA66]

It's gonna be a long week 

[JoeSeNJ]

Getting some light snow now. Not a big deal but unexpected. 

[Mikeymac5306]

The history has been that the models cave to the Euro correct? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

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That separation of 50/50 and better positioning of h5 ull is drool worthy. Nao ridge and pna arent too shabby either.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

The history has been that the models cave to the Euro correct? 

Euro AI has been on fire at this range (4-6 days). I would lean towards that.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro AI:

[MickeyTim6533]

isn't 6z gfs a whiff?

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

isn't 6z gfs a whiff?

6z is a vertically stacked monster reminiscent of Jan.25, 2000. Below are the 250, 500, 700, 850 maps valid 1am feb 1. Verbatim a big hit especially interior. Dry slot would assuredly push into the metros as the system occludes, again jan.25, 2000ish. Alas, plenty of time to go for better or worse. There is plenty that could go wrong here. Gotta run.

[Mikeymac5306]

Flurries pulling through here. 20 degrees.

[JTA66]

First time out shoveling since noon yesterday. There's a light glaze on the car windows suggesting some ZR must have mixed in. Currently have a random flurry floating by. So to shovel and not hear the sound of drip-drip-drip.

20F/DP 17F

[Newman]

28 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z is a vertically stacked monster reminiscent of Jan.25, 2000. Below are the 250, 500, 700, 850 maps valid 1am feb 1. Verbatim a big hit especially interior. Dry slot would assuredly push into the metros as the system occludes, again jan.25, 2000ish. Alas, plenty of time to go for better or worse. There is plenty that could go wrong here. Gotta run.

I don't know if Jan 2000 is the best analog verbatim, at least at the upper levels. That one had a southern stream shortwave that got captured by the polar jet and then swung northward up the east coast.

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2000/25-Jan-00-500MillibarMaps.html

At the surface and as far as sensible impacts go, definitely similarities. But at the upper levels, the 6z Euro output is even more anomalous. January 1966 is actually a pretty dang close analog

[Duca892]

Eagerly awaiting 12z GFS to see if it starts trending that way. Would be a biblical stretch of winter in the span of 10 days 

[ChescoWx]

After yesterday's 11th winter event of the season which totaled 12.8" of sleet/snow here in East Nantmeal we are at 230% of normal snowfall at 34.1". This is about 96% of our annual average snowfall. Today will be the "warmest" day of the week with temperatures hopefully making it up into the low to mid 20's. For the rest of the week temperatures will likely remain in the mid to upper teens for highs and lows near or below zero for much of the area. In fact, here in EN the NWS has a forecast low of 5 below zero on Thursday morning - in my 23 years at this location I have never recorded a temperature that cold. After some flurries today we look dry for the rest of the work week. Some models are hinting and our 12th winter event of the season next weekend....but we don't shovel or scrape model snow.

[Newman]

I scanned my KU book haha, here is Jan 1966. Notice how there was an elongated PV stretched under a decaying NAO block. The western side of it separated and then amplified under the block, while the eastern side acted as the 50/50. And then the storm cut off and vertically stacked. The difference between this and the 6z Euro? The Euro has the evolution just a bit further south and east

[Physicsteve]

Storm signal is there across guidance, but gfs camp keeps troughs and energy too neutral or neg too late, whereas euro products (ai included, notably) all go neg at the perfect time for us, now 2 runs in a row. I know which camp I’d like to be in at this range. 

[Chadzachadam]

47 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6z is a vertically stacked monster reminiscent of Jan.25, 2000. Below are the 250, 500, 700, 850 maps valid 1am feb 1. Verbatim a big hit especially interior. Dry slot would assuredly push into the metros as the system occludes, again jan.25, 2000ish. Alas, plenty of time to go for better or worse. There is plenty that could go wrong here. Gotta run.

The Carolina Crusher invoked! I lived in Raleigh, NC at the time and that Jan 25, 2000 storm was one of the biggest forecasting fails of all time. Local mets called for 1-3" and we got 20 as the low bombed off the Outer Banks and just kept throwing moisture back over the NC piedmont

[Heisy]

I scanned my KU book haha, here is Jan 1966. Notice how there was an elongated PV stretched under a decaying NAO block. The western side of it separated and then amplified under the block, while the eastern side acted as the 50/50. And then the storm cut off and vertically stacked. The difference between this and the 6z Euro? The Euro has the evolution just a bit further south and east

That’s a good analog, what the euro is showing is honestly a once in a lifetime potential event. I’m that serious lol. Things usually screw us so I’m not going all in yet obviously, but that euro run was a blizzard for whoever stayed in ccb for duration. Blizzard of 26 literally.


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[Newman]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

That’s a good analog, what the euro is showing is honestly a once in a lifetime potential event. I’m that serious lol. Things usually screw us so I’m not going all in yet obviously, but that euro run was a blizzard for whoever stayed in ccb for duration. Blizzard of 26 literally.


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I totally agree, verbatim we're looking at HECS outputs from the Euro. I'm not biting yet though, will wait until Thursday 0z for full confidence, and even then there will be shifts in directions that screw New England, or screw the Mid-Atlantic, or screw somebody. I do think a super tucked solution will favor Central PA more where they get a CCB and SE PA might dry slot. But then again, it depends on the exact passage of the 700 and 850mb lows. Nitpicking details though at this stage, we'll worry about dry slots once we reel this in synoptically with confidence