E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Albedoman]

1 hour ago, Fields27 said:

Well if there is any model I'd feel confident leading the way it's the Euro.

Also where the hell would we go with all the snow?! My god that would shut down the entire northeast. All good problems BTW.

Strap in!

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This would cause this biggest G dam flood and end in chance of a drought for a year. 96 all over again.  I am done with snow for awhile.  A federal disaster would have to be issued and the resulting melt and thaw with any rain over a couple of  inches would blow out every fricking bridge on the Delaware. 

Next big worrk folks other than this BS run of the Euro,  ice jams.  The base flows are low in the streams, nearly 2ft of snow on the ground north of  S Mtn and 3-5 days of below zero weather and highs not even cracking 26 degrees.  The Delaware, Lehigh and especially the Susquehanna are frozen over now or close to it.  The media is going to go crazy. I did not say Schulkill because the cooling waters from the industrial treatments plants from Limerick ,Oaks and Reading may keep the water warm enough in that river from freezing over.

[dseagull]

40 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

This would cause this biggest G dam flood and end in chance of a drought for a year. 96 all over again.  I am done with snow for awhile.  A federal disaster would have to be issued and the resulting melt and thaw with any rain over a couple of  inches would blow out every fricking bridge on the Delaware. 

Next big worrk folks other than this BS run of the Euro,  ice jams.  The base flows are low in the streams, nearly 2ft of snow on the ground north of  S Mtn and 3-5 days of below zero weather and highs not even cracking 26 degrees.  The Delaware, Lehigh and especially the Susquehanna are frozen over now or close to it.  The media is going to go crazy. I did not say Schulkill because the cooling waters from the industrial treatments plants from Limerick ,Oaks and Reading may keep the water warm enough in that river from freezing over.

As depicted, the next two weeks would be pretty memorable.   Will be plenty of tracking ahead, but will begin taking runs seriously only if they are all onboard come Wednesday afternoon.  

[Heisy]

6z euro Ai is a massive hit

OP rolling now


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[Newman]

Wow, just wow. The Euro suite last night and now this morning is a beaut. 24-36 hour storm for many. 970s mb bomb parked right off the Delmarva. CCB just cranks

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Newman said:

Wow, just wow. The Euro suite last night and now this morning is a beaut. 24-36 hour storm for many. 970s mb bomb parked right off the Delmarva. CCB just cranks

Insanity 

[Heisy]

6z euro, someone pinch me, wake me up lol


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[Duca892]

Like that’s not 10 days out, it’s not even 7 days out, that is literally like 140hrs out lmfao. 12z suite will be interesting to see if anything else trends it closer to the euro

[Ralph Wiggum]

Eps for Feb 1:

[MJO812]

6z eps more west with coastal

[Heisy]

.

[Heisy]

6z eps more west with coastal

Can you post 00z comparison


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[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Can you post 00z comparison


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[JTA66]

It's gonna be a long week 

[JoeSeNJ]

Getting some light snow now. Not a big deal but unexpected. 

[Mikeymac5306]

The history has been that the models cave to the Euro correct? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

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That separation of 50/50 and better positioning of h5 ull is drool worthy. Nao ridge and pna arent too shabby either.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

The history has been that the models cave to the Euro correct? 

Euro AI has been on fire at this range (4-6 days). I would lean towards that.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Euro AI:

[MickeyTim6533]

isn't 6z gfs a whiff?

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, MickeyTim6533 said:

isn't 6z gfs a whiff?

6z is a vertically stacked monster reminiscent of Jan.25, 2000. Below are the 250, 500, 700, 850 maps valid 1am feb 1. Verbatim a big hit especially interior. Dry slot would assuredly push into the metros as the system occludes, again jan.25, 2000ish. Alas, plenty of time to go for better or worse. There is plenty that could go wrong here. Gotta run.

[Mikeymac5306]

Flurries pulling through here. 20 degrees.