E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[Duca892]

Eric Webb seems to think the AI’s shifted toward OP for the suppression idea 

[Franklin0529]

I can see this ending up a dc to Boston blizzard. The highs are usually overdone

[Ralph Wiggum]

One trend past 24 hrs i do like, the strong 1052 arctic hp isnt showing nearly that strength and is ~1044mb highest i could find across guidance at 12z. Not surprising that it probably won't be as strong as depicted 6 days out.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

I can see this ending up a dc to Boston blizzard. The highs are usually overdone

Alot depends on the ull out over the baja. Some models move it out quickly in 1 piece ans phase it, others are slower and eject it in waves. 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

One trend past 24 hrs i do like, the strong 1052 arctic hp isnt showing nearly that strength and is ~1044mb highest i could find across guidance at 12z. Not surprising that it probably won't be as strong as depicted 6 days out.

I think that'll be good for both our subs...because a weakee high would lessen suppression risk, right?

[Duca892]

Welp 18z GFS rolling… here is to hoping for a northern trend 

[yankeex777]

1 hour ago, Prairie Dog said:

IF it's right, you will have a prolonged vacation   Major disruption of air travel  Airports will fall like domino's  Good luck   

Ooof I’m hoping it delays like 12 hours. lol  id love to get home before all the action starts

[Prairie Dog]

6 minutes ago, yankeex777 said:

Ooof I’m hoping it delays like 12 hours. lol  id love to get home before all the action starts

I would attempt a Friday flight home  Don't know where you are  But that's me.  Of course it's your call.   Easier if you are flying solo.   I hate sleeping in a airport

[Ralph Wiggum]

AI is wayyy south. Suppression is a very major concern. 

[Duca892]

I mean… with the horrific trends south today… is it too early to toss the towel when even ENS aren’t in your camp?

[Ralph Wiggum]

18z gfs is another 2-4" event to pad our seasonal stats.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

I mean… with the horrific trends south today… is it too early to toss the towel when even ENS aren’t in your camp?

What came south?

[yankeex777]

25 minutes ago, Prairie Dog said:

I would attempt a Friday flight home  Don't know where you are  But that's me.  Of course it's your call.   Easier if you are flying solo.   I hate sleeping in a airport

lol I’m on a cruise out of Miami. I got no choice but to fly back Sunday morning

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

What came south?

Ai gfs

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ai gfs

Thats it while the other models came north

[Violentweatherfan]

Maybe we should make a thread, all other sub forums did

[Mikeymac5306]

2 minutes ago, Violentweatherfan said:

Maybe we should make a thread, all other sub forums did

 

[Mikeymac5306]

In all seriousness, at least we'll wait for the NAM to get in range before considering a thread on here.  Lot of details still need to get locked in. 

[Albedoman]

the kicker energy  to the north in Canada  will pull likley the storm north and the HP over southern Quebec will alsoweaken. This will come to fruition after the missing/scant W PAC data is finally ingested into the Meso models by Thursday 12Z runs   

Magical points to look for for a MECS/HECS  1. a 1035mb  high over southern quebec - we have that, 2. the LP over SW VA with a secondary LP forming directly over the NC Hatteras area- starting to take shape in the last model runs, 3.   The secondary LP  taking it sweet ass time getting to the Delmarva pennisula-- the sweet spot/Bench mark as the primary LP in W  dies on the grapevine  do not know yet and 4. An inverted trough setting ip with the LP going negative tilt setting up just off the NJ coast at at least 980 mb --do not know yet

Until than trust nothing from social media BS meteorologists. If the 12Z runs on Thursday show something, then  Friday winter storm watches should be flowing out. Possible warnings with this storm  by the OZ meso runs on Sat if indeed this scenerio unfolds including  just about everything in the NWS winter kitchen weather warnings cabinet including freezing spray, blizzard warnings as that criteria will easily be met with the extreme cold but no high winds may prevent them from being issued, Wind chill warnings, cold advisories, ice storm warnings, beach erosion etc, 

PA NJ and NY would issue state of emergencies Sat morning, major interstates  will be shutdown Sat night- the entire winter kitchen cabinet will be emptied folks.  Still to early,  but I bet your ass that PEMA is looking at this situation right now as the PJM grid system will take a hell of hit too with below zero temps  for highs after storm departs. FWIW from the  drought guy who has seen every nasty storm in the last 45 years here.

 

 

[penndotguy]

16 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

In all seriousness, at least we'll wait for the NAM to get in range before considering a thread on here.  Lot of details still need to get locked in. 

Right, I think Wednesday if things are looking good 

[Fields27]

I know this is banter but, yesterday my snow shovel cracked in half. So after work (in between 12z and 18z runs) I bought a new shovel and ice scraper. It seems I may have upset the snow gods. Lucky for us, there is still plenty of time for this to trend better or worse. I know this setup is way different from any other this winter, but the theme up until game time has been a N trend with most systems. Hoping this is no different. 

[RedSky]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ai gfs

Ai ECM also south

CMC south

[RedSky]

Went out today feeling great about the weekend now i want to drink

[Violentweatherfan]

It’s only Monday, I like the set up. We’re getting snow, it will only be a matter of how much

[Prairie Dog]

1 hour ago, yankeex777 said:

lol I’m on a cruise out of Miami. I got no choice but to fly back Sunday morning

good luck!

[RedSky]

The aurora has busted 

[Ralph Wiggum]

16 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Ai ECM also south

CMC south

Yep, starting to morph into an entirely different setup if we are being honest. 

[RedSky]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep, starting to morph into an entirely different setup if we are being honest. 

[RedSky]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yep, starting to morph into an entirely different setup if we are being honest. 

The KP index hit 8.5 and went to crap in record time

[RedSky]

Missed my chance for aurora over snow