E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2025-26 Obs/Discussion

[ChescoWx]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Its funny to read Paul's post from some well-respected met about best December winter pattern in 10 years then actually look at guidance. Social media click bait 100%

Steve folks need to get their clicks!! LOL! That said - the many folks who stare at models and post 240 hour snow maps and believe it....or look at 240 hour maps with no snow are both going to be surprised when the opposite ends up the actual weather! We don't shovel model snow and we very well may shovel models that show no snow!!

[ChescoWx]

3 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

We will get our chances. This is the kind of pattern that doesn’t have any obvious long range threats. Instead stuff will appear 4-5 days out.

Exactly!! Give me the cold....snow can follow

[Birds~69]

2 hours ago, JTA66 said:

Bottomed out at 21F. Cold and dry...33F and rain's ugly twin sister.

Wow, Steve D. Forgot all about that guy. Anyone remember Ruggie weather??

The Steve D character always had JB-ish type write ups. He always saw something in the weather pattern that the other METs were missing.

And yeah, I forgot about Ruggie weather.

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Tiniest of flakes falling. I didn't know if I was hallucinating or if it was real? Held out my black glove and a flake the size of half an ant fell onto it. A special moment indeed...

25F

Biggest event since Sunday. We are obviously a snow town 

[BBasile]

27 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Same here, even a surprise dusting! 28F currently.

 

It counts.  I don't care.  

[ChescoWx]

20 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

The Steve D character always had JB-ish type write ups. He always saw something in the weather pattern that the other METs were missing.

And yeah, I forgot about Ruggie weather.

Wow! forgot about Ruggie! Whatever happened to him?

[JTA66]

23 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

The Steve D character always had JB-ish type write ups. He always saw something in the weather pattern that the other METs were missing.

And yeah, I forgot about Ruggie weather.

Ruggie was like that, always "seeing something the models aren't picking up on".

[PhiEaglesfan712]

All of a sudden, the skies have cleared. I see a lot of blue sky out there.

[Hurricane Agnes]

Had some very fine flakes (was more than flurries but that cold dry fine stuff) just after 11 am.  Didn't stick but it's my first "Trace" of the season so far.

Currently 28 with dp 17.

[Birds~69]

So, do

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Biggest event since Sunday. We are obviously a snow town 

So, do we recognize this as our 3rd event? 

I'm sure ChescoWx already updated his spreadsheets and uploaded backups to 3 different servers...

Overcast, low clouds/25F

 

 

[ChescoWx]

28 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

So, do

So, do we recognize this as our 3rd event? 

I'm sure ChescoWx already updated his spreadsheets and uploaded backups to 3 different servers...

Overcast, low clouds/25F

 

 

Here in Chescoland stuck on Winter event #2 - only saw 8 flakes today! However, website updates are continuing with some new content coming out this evening! stay tuned!! Everything you ever cared to know about Chester County Climate. I actually have the data set in excel, google sheets, looker studio and of course backed up to an external drive!! So Birds is not too far off!! LOL!!

[Ralph Wiggum]

Right or wrong, it is still comical to see the Euro with a big warm surge via an anchored Bermuda High and SER starting the week of Christmas. Can't make this stuff up.

 

[Mikeymac5306]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Right or wrong, it is still comical to see the Euro with a big warm surge via an anchored Bermuda High and SER starting the week of Christmas. Can't make this stuff up.

 

Death, taxes and the Christmas torch! 

[ChescoWx]

In an effort to keep hope alive for those on Team Snow - Another view from a "well respected" Meteorologist "The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is a key indicator of the strength and phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Sustained strongly positive SOI values (typically 30-day average > +7 or +8) are associated with La Niña conditions, and sustained strongly negative values with El Niño. This graph shows a very sharp collapse of the SOI from strongly positive (La Niña-like) values around +18 in mid-to-late November 2025 down to slightly positive or near-neutral values by early December 2025. “This is one of the fastest SOI drops on record.” After a sudden SOI plunge of this magnitude and speed, the most common lag time to the first big Eastern U.S. winter storm or polar vortex disruption-driven cold wave is about 2–3 weeks, with a broader 10–35-day window of elevated risk. So for the drop shown in this image (finalized ~5 Dec 2025), the highest winter storm threat in the Eastern US is roughly December 18 – January 10, peaking late December to very early January 2026. So Christmas could be extremely Wintery this year! ~Meteorologist Mark Margavage"

[ChescoWx]

Quite a few stations across Chester County have remained in the 25 to 27 degree range for maximum temperatures so far today. If temperatures don't rise much more before midnight today will finish in the Top 3 coldest December 5th daytime highs since records began in 1893. So far here in East Nantmeal our high has been 25.7 degrees we are currently at 25.4 degrees. Below are the top 5 lowest max temperature days.

[LVblizzard]

Some flurries falling in Allentown. Mood flakes are always nice this time of year.