Discussion OBS for minor to possibly moderate impact winter storm interior 4A Tue - midnight Tue 12/2/25, may bring first measurable snow-sleet to coastal areas including NYC

[wdrag]

This thread headline looks good based on casual look at info through 06z/29. NYC CP might see their first measurable snow-sleet.  Back later today.  Ensemble WSSI-P graphic -06z/29, and ensemble prob for 3+" of snow (legend color code probs) hopefully speak for themselves. 

[MJO812]

City should see a mix but just inland has a chance of accumulating snow 

Latest euro has came south and weaker. 

[NEG NAO]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc

Gfs shifted weaker

anyone who wants 2-4 or 3 -5 in the immediate metro away from any immediate coastal locations should hope for a weaker solution - the water temps are still too warm for an amped up solution which brings in that warmer air- we won't know for sure how this is going to play out until that Great Lakes low passes and HP moves into southeast Canada and if it is allowed to leave with the flow or stays put just long enough to provide cold enough air and keep the  storm off the coast

[weathermedic]

Upton AFD:

 

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Key Points:

* Low pressure may bring the first bout of winter weather to the
  area Tuesday into Tuesday night. There remains uncertainty in the
  low track, which will be critical in determining precipitation
  type. At this time, it looks like mainly rain at the coast with
  rain/snow line somewhere over the interior.

* Below normal temperatures through next Friday.

NBM closely followed during this timeframe.

The focus for this forecast period will remain on a potential
coastal low bringing wintry weather to the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night. Global models have trended farther NW with the low
track the last 24h, with many of the 12Z operationals just inside
the 40N...70W benchmark. The EPS/GEFS mean are farther SE, deeper,
and more clustered around the mean, but there are also more members
to the NW of the mean than recent days. While the Pac energy
associated with this southern branch storm system is about to come
onshore western Canada, there will likely be some run to run changes
that are often critical to precipitation type across the area. In
addition, with no blocking over the north Atlantic, high pressure
quickly lifts out of the Northeast as the storm approaches, allowing
for more of a marine influence and erosion of the cold air. This is
why it is too difficult this far out to mention snowfall totals.
What does appear to be more certain though is for a strong coastal
low to impact the region.

The forecast is more reflective of a consenus forecast. Such a track
favors a mainly rain event at the coast, with a rain/snow line
working inland. Inland locations have the best chance of seeing
winter weather impacts at this time. NBM probabilities for greater
than inch of snowfall range from 10-25 percent at the coast and 40-
70 percent inland. For an advisory level snow, these probabilities
are 0-10 percent and 20-40 percent, respectively.

High pressure will primarily in control for the second half of the
week, minus a cold frontal passage on Thursday.