First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A shell of itself.

Ride it

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think not is their more data, but other guidance has closed the gap....so like I said, I don't think the EURO has gotten worse... but it runs more often and other guidance is better. JMO....I don't want to incur the wrath of Wolfie.

I get that other guidance has got better, But you use to be able to lock the Euro inside 84hrs, Those days are gone.

[Great Snow 1717]

24 minutes ago, 512high said:

Lol almost game time and these models can't get a clue....

...and the surprise is????

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that not only is there more data, but other guidance has closed the gap....so like I said, I don't think the EURO has gotten worse... but it runs more often and other guidance is better. JMO....I don't want to incur the wrath of Wolfie.

Euro is prob gonna win the compromise on the track closer to the BM…we’ll see. But it def was decently too cold in thermal profiles. But it’s had that issue for a few seasons now. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

...and the surprise is????

Top ten candidate for post of the year!!!!

[HoarfrostHubb]

Ping ping ping...

[dendrite]

Kidding aside…consensus would’ve worked well when you start blending in the extremes like the euro/nam. It was just really stubborn until the end.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I somewhat disagree with you. I know we don't use the n:am model as often, but it is in its range now. And then the GFS has a similar look to the NAM ( just not the crazy amounts the NAM put out ). But the GFS came down more from where it was and now has Connecticut in the zone of more snow. So to me that's a big change.

Someone named snowcrazed disagrees with me. Lol.

 

The Nam is not in its range and is way to zonked with QPF. Gfs is still warm aloft. Better for Kevin but not great S and W. CT is a big state. I don’t even know where you are. I said Kevin’s area is still the highest area of uncertainty and so did Will. 

[CoastalWx]

The RRFS has the snow line just N and W of BOS for what it’s worth. Still shows a latitude issue in CT. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The RRFS has the snow line just N and W of BOS for what it’s worth. Still shows a latitude issue in CT. 

WTF is the RRFS?

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

WTF is the RRFS?

Taking over for the nam when they shut it down.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

WTF is the RRFS?

Will be the new replacement for Nam and hrrr. Sometime in 2026 but it still needs work. 

[Chrisrotary12]

34 minutes ago, 512high said:

Lol almost game time and these models can't get a clue....

ineedsnow's idea sounds about right for us. Probably closer to 6 than 10. But slightly concerned about power issues with the column potentially looking like this: 

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Thinking 6 to 9 of heavy wet snow here.. maybe break 10 if im lucky

[Great Snow 1717]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Top ten candidate for post of the year!!!!

What is your problem with my post regarding the models?? Lol

[CoastalWx]

3K Nam soundings are hilarious here. One big hole ripped into the atmosphere with all sorts of lift in the DGZ, unstable layers etc. If only.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

3K Nam soundings are hilarious here. One big hole ripped into the atmosphere with all sorts of lift in the DGZ, unstable layers etc. If only.

Thundersnow up yer fanny

[ORH_wxman]

The really high resolution stuff (HRDPS/3k NAM/etc) overnight keeps the CF pretty far east. like near 128 or even slightly east (further north you go the further east it gets)....that's something to watch because it's likely going to stay snow on the cold side of that....usually there is some enhanced lower level lift on the left side of that CF which will help to cool that lower 900-950mb layer a little bit...which will obviously matter if we have temps near 0C in that layer. 

[CoastalWx]

If you just showed me that low track, even this time of year would offer interesting weather. A shame the high retreats prior. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The really high resolution stuff (HRDPS/3k NAM/etc) overnight keeps the CF pretty far east. like near 128 or even slightly east (further north you go the further east it gets)....that's something to watch because it's likely going to stay snow on the cold side of that....usually there is some enhanced lower level lift on the left side of that CF which will help to cool that lower 900-950mb layer a little bit...which will obviously matter if we temps near 0C in that layer. 

Yeah saw that. Certainly crushes you. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Timing seems a little slower (for the outset in my area)

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The really high resolution stuff (HRDPS/3k NAM/etc) overnight keeps the CF pretty far east. like near 128 or even slightly east (further north you go the further east it gets)....that's something to watch because it's likely going to stay snow on the cold side of that....usually there is some enhanced lower level lift on the left side of that CF which will help to cool that lower 900-950mb layer a little bit...which will obviously matter if we temps near 0C in that layer. 

Either slush or the grid goes down in Holliston.  

[Snowcrazed71]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Someone named snowcrazed disagrees with me. Lol.

 

The Nam is not in its range and is way to zonked with QPF. Gfs is still warm aloft. Better for Kevin but not great S and W. CT is a big state. I don’t even know where you are. I said Kevin’s area is still the highest area of uncertainty and so did Will. 

Lol... Sorry to disappoint. 

I'm actually in Plainville which is just next to Farmington west of Hartford. All kidding aside, I thought The Nam was in range within 24 hours at the start of the storm. Not that I'm going with the NAM LOL.

 

 

[KTBFFH1905]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lol... Sorry to disappoint. 

I'm actually in Plainville which is just next to Farmington west of Hartford. All kidding aside, I thought The Nam was in range within 24 hours at the start of the storm. Not that I'm going with the NAM LOL.

 

 

Hoping for at least 3-6 for us here in Avon.

 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Either slush or the grid goes down in Holliston.  

06z GFS had it pinned in roughly the same spot too. But this is a situation where like 10 miles could be the difference between 10" of cement and 2" of slop. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The really high resolution stuff (HRDPS/3k NAM/etc) overnight keeps the CF pretty far east. like near 128 or even slightly east (further north you go the further east it gets)....that's something to watch because it's likely going to stay snow on the cold side of that....usually there is some enhanced lower level lift on the left side of that CF which will help to cool that lower 900-950mb layer a little bit...which will obviously matter if we have temps near 0C in that layer. 

I thought it would get a bit further....may shift that jack se a bit.

 

[ariof]

From the BOX AFD:

The timing of this system (largely during the day) doesn`t bode well for snow chances in the low elevations.

I guess they're looking only at the time of day and not, like, the time of year?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ariof said:

From the BOX AFD:

The timing of this system (largely during the day) doesn`t bode well for snow chances in the low elevations.

I guess they're looking only at the time of day and not, like, the time of year?

December sun angle will get you every time. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

December sun angle will get you every time. 

Jesus...between winter solstice sun angle trepidation and 2-11" ranges WTF is going on at BOX? Did they put @Snowcrazed71in charge?

[CoastalWx]

OMFG. Shoot whoever said that, to the sun. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

December sun angle will get you every time. 

Precipitating overcast in December. lol

Will we even hit 100Wm^-2 during the day?