First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Well... That is a big change! ( And It is within its wheelhouse as far as the start time ). Curious how the other models follow suite this morning.

[Snowcrazed71]

3 hours ago, moneypitmike said:

Congrats, Massachusetts!

Shoot.. even into my neck of the woods just west of Hartford brings a healthy amount of Snow. 

[moneypitmike]

Tossing NAM's, this looks increasingly like it will be a pretty minor event in Maine unless we can get some type of enhancements.

[ineedsnow]

6z GFS not backing down maybe a slight shift south

[ineedsnow]

[moneypitmike]

Jeff and Lava are reading this with much interest.

In addition to ensemble spread in QPF, other points of uncertainty
exist around the development of a quasi-stationary mesoscale snow
band and the inland penetration of the coastal front. A mesoscale
snowband acts to rob moisture from the northwest side of the band
creating a tight gradient in snowfall while areas under the band
could see up to a foot of snow. 

[Modfan2]

How much rain are we getting? .50-.75”?

[CoastalWx]

Euro one of the warmer models. Shoot the horse, send it to the glue factory, and then light the factory on fire. 

[UnitedWx]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

You knew that was bound to happen... or rains to northern VT

[UnitedWx]

59 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Shoot.. even into my knees of the woods just west of Hartford brings a healthy amount of Snow. 

Reminds me, someday I need to draw a rain/snow line map for my area that better explains it. Models and local forecasts just never get the area right. Heavy smoothing on the maps

[moneypitmike]

Off-topic:   It's incredibly icy out there this morning.  Be careful out there!

[moneypitmike]

I don't like this range map at all.  At least raise the floor on the two high zones.  

 

[moneypitmike]

And for the northern folks:

 

[CoastalWx]

I don’t think anything really has changed overnight. The euro ticking warmer wasn’t really a shock. This looks like a 495 north and west kind of deal with area still in question is inside 495 through about Kevin. The nam is out to lunch and zonked so that’s tossed.

[Kitz Craver]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

That’s not a slight shift

[Kitz Craver]

24 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Off-topic:   It's incredibly icy out there this morning.  Be careful out there!

No kidding, just let the dog out and the grass is slick! 

[ineedsnow]

Euro starting to cave but still has that other low

[Ginx snewx]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think anything really has changed overnight. The euro ticking warmer wasn’t really a shock. This looks like a 495 north and west kind of deal with area still in question is inside 495 through about Kevin. The nam is out to lunch and zonked so that’s tossed.

An extremely close marginal situation at the edges. We await 

[UnitedWx]

43 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Off-topic:   It's incredibly icy out there this morning.  Be careful out there!

Super slick in Westfield with no treatment anywhere but the State roads

[UnitedWx]

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

An extremely close marginal situation at the edges. We await 

Bob Cox on WTIC super conservative as of this morning (as always), going for 3 to 6 in the hills with about an inch everywhere else. I just don't see that myself with the overnight slight trends. I could see 3 to 6 near Hartford to BDL and 4 to 8 in the hills

[Ginx snewx]

With a bunch of isothermic soundings I could see if rates materialize those on the edge getting smoked.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, UnitedWx said:

Bob Cox on WTIC super conservative as of this morning (as always), going for 3 to 6 in the hills with about an inch everywhere else. I just don't see that myself with the overnight slight trends

You are solid there. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Euro tickling warmer is not surprising at all. Classic

[Ginx snewx]

8 hours ago, TheSnowman said:

Ahhhhh from Totally Screwing RI to…. Totally Screwing RI?  Ya.  Same Picture to me.  

Good 

[ORH_wxman]

06z euro kind of looks like 06z GFS. They are pretty close now. 

[TheMainer]

Based on everything I've seen, I'm feeling 4 inches is what we're going to end up with here, "far" NNE is not the place to be for this.

A little overdone by CAR I think, but you never know.

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro kind of looks like 06z GFS. They are pretty close now. 

So are we at a consensus do you think with the 6z?  The GFS shifting south some has a decent event here….and if the Euro has the same that adds some credence. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro one of the warmer models. Shoot the horse, send it to the glue factory, and then light the factory on fire. 

Brutal sensible weather performance here. I’m sure it nailed H5 over Madagascar though.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

So are we at a consensus do you think with the 6z?  The GFS shifting south some has a decent event here….and if the Euro has the same that adds some credence. 

Yeah I think we’ve narrowed the goalposts down to just 25 miles or so but that still leaves a tough forecast because of how marginal the thermal profiles are across such a large area of more densely populated area. Metrowest down through Hartford region is gonna be a hard forecast. 

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think we’ve narrowed the goalposts down to just 25 miles or so but that still leaves a tough forecast because of how marginal the thermal profiles are across such a large area of more densely populated area. Metrowest down through Hartford region is gonna be a hard forecast. 

If I finagle the GFS amounts that it's tickling here, that'll be awesome.  I'm not confident the qpf will merit that.  It's tantalizingly close though.  If the system can manage a little more latitude before shuffling east, all would be good.