Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

I've never had a 20 incher in March, the month just doesn't have the juice

Ironically. The biggest snowstorm on record in Toledo is 22.0" on March 1, 1900. And Detroit 24.5" April 6, 1886

[roardog]

44 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Ironically. The biggest snowstorm on record in Toledo is 22.0" on March 1, 1900. And Detroit 24.5" April 6, 1886

Spring snowstorms actually have the benefit of potentially much warmer air to  the south causing a stronger storm. It just has to have cold enough air to work with on the cold side which isn’t always a guarantee the deeper into March you go. 

[A-L-E-K]

Pure zzzzzs + East coast pattern, rough

[DocATL]

The Wisconsin-Illinois state line is a naturally occurring snow boundary. It’s wild.

[CheeselandSkies]

2 hours ago, DocATL said:

The Wisconsin-Illinois state line is a naturally occurring snow boundary. It’s wild.

Just like it is in the opposite direction for warm fronts/tornadic supercells, with very rare exceptions.

[Chicago Storm]

6 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Pure zzzzzs + East coast pattern, rough

looks active to me, and still not any sort of east coast pattern in sight.

[michsnowfreak]

9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

looks active to me, and still not any sort of east coast pattern in sight.

Models will likely continue to struggle with the details too. Expect some good and bad busts in the near future.

[RemoteSenses]

I don’t trust the GFS at all this year - I’m looking at it as a total outlier entirely. ECM is really the only one worth watching IMO.

[mimillman]

Euro clipper fest

[A-L-E-K]

We got a low end mid week duster and a fantasy range overrunning setup to track, neither looks major but could be worse

[Baum]

1 hour ago, A-L-E-K said:

We got a low end mid week duster and a fantasy range overrunning setup to track, neither looks major but could be worse

Bears game mood flakes shot looking more likely 

[DocATL]

Dare I say east coast pattern?

[Baum]

7 minutes ago, DocATL said:

Dare I say east coast pattern?

Dare I say Florida panhandle pattern?

https://x.com/floridatropics1/status/2012502858013307241?s=61

[cyclone77]

zzzzzz

[Chicago916]

Definitely not zzzzz. Next week looks interesting for sure. High potential. (Peaks at latest gfs model lol is that a triple phaser?)

[Stevo6899]

Just now, Chicago916 said:

Definitely not zzzzz. Next week looks interesting for sure. High potential. 

People quickly forget how unreliable the models are past 72 hours. How strong the clippers and phasing will determine how north the potential for next weekend can go. Models struggle with phasing and clipper strengths so who knows. 

[DocATL]

That overrunning event on 12z Goofus would be a 36-48 hour event for a whole lot of us. Won’t happen but at least we get some eye candy. That’s a big daddy.

[Chicago916]

"the week before Groundhogs day IV storm" thread. Too soon for it though. That would be a ton of ice given the cold air mass prior. 

[Baum]

21 minutes ago, DocATL said:

That overrunning event on 12z Goofus would be a 36-48 hour event for a whole lot of us. Won’t happen but at least we get some eye candy. That’s a big daddy.

Dryslotted. 

[DocATL]

Dryslotted. 

Likely


.

[A-L-E-K]

2 hours ago, DocATL said:

That overrunning event on 12z Goofus would be a 36-48 hour event for a whole lot of us. Won’t happen but at least we get some eye candy. That’s a big daddy.

No 12z support

[cyclone77]

3 hours ago, Chicago916 said:

Definitely not zzzzz. Next week looks interesting for sure. High potential. (Peaks at latest gfs model lol is that a triple phaser?)

Nope, just more of the same garbage as far as the eye can see.  Eastern lakes and LES peeps will continue to be placated though.  Tolerable pattern for them.

[DocATL]

No 12z support

Kind of a mirage and stream interaction never seems to work out in MBY. More likely scenario is an upper south/Ohio valley paste job with the western GL praying for a favorable clipper trajectory. Wisconsin cashes in.

[A-L-E-K]

Eps warm in fantasy range, def sick of the cad and it's just starting

[sbnwx85]

GFS operational was much wimpier with next weekend’s storm but there are several good hits on the ensembles

[A-L-E-K]

Zzzzz

[Baum]

10 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Zzzzz

KEY MESSAGES     - ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS   EVENING, WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.     - A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS   EVENING WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH. SOME   BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.     - BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH   TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO   EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.     - A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE   AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  

[Baum]

7 hours ago, sbnwx85 said:

GFS operational was much wimpier with next weekend’s storm but there are several good hits on the ensembles

THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE END OF THE   WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN   FOR OR NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE IN A   LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LOCAL   AREA, BUT THERE IS STILL A DECENT SPREAD IN POSSIBILITIES.   REGARDLESS OF WHETHER PRECIP DEVELOPS FOR THE LOCAL AREA,   CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE TO FAVOR A COLD/VERY COLD PATTERN. CM

[A-L-E-K]

23 minutes ago, Baum said:

KEY MESSAGES     - ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS   EVENING, WITH SLIPPERY TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.     - A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS   EVENING WITH WEST NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH. SOME   BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.     - BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH   TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS 15 BELOW TO 25 BELOW ZERO   EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.     - A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF THE   AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  

Dusters and cad aren't my jam

[DocATL]

“Nickels and dimes, yours and mine. Did you cash in all your dreams?”